Bowling alleys and race tracks

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This is true. I neglected to mention that I have also taken up chess.

Chess is a great game.

I love following the tournaments. I'm not any good, but I know just enough to follow along with the expert commentary and chess engines. I actually bet one of the championship matches (took Magnus over Nepo), but I haven't been able to find a place where I can get bets in consistently or I'd probably bet more often. I just play against the computer once in awhile so I can set the level. I'm 65 now. I think it's helping with my concentration - which is beginning to slip a little.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's not what I was saying.

I think if all your lifetime profits come from 1-2 huge scores, there's a better chance you've just been lucky than if your profits have come from an edge in multiple pools including the lower variance ones like Win, Exacta, Double and Pick 3 and also have a few scores in the Pick 6.

The reverse is also true.

I think it's likely there are at least some skilled players out there that have a small edge over Win, Exacta, Double and Pick 3 bets but lost all that money and more playing Pick 6s not because they weren't just as good at finding value and structuring tickets in that pool, but because of variance. They just had a fairly long run of bad luck in the Pick 6 pool that wiped out their small overall edge on the game. Very long term, they'd beat Pick 6s also (assuming they live that long .

I have a friend in the 1st category. Year to year he's a net loser on the low variance bets and the Pick 6, but he made one single monster score along the way and is a big net winner for his life. IMO, there's no way he's a winning player long term.

P-6s were vary playable prior to jackpot bets. A good P-6 player could survive the wait between scores from the 5 out of 6 consolation payouts.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This is true. I neglected to mention that I have also taken up chess.

I picture you more as a shuffleboard player.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I picture you more as a shuffleboard player.

You are missing me by a mile.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

P-6s were vary playable prior to jackpot bets. A good P-6 player could survive the wait between scores from the 5 out of 6 consolation payouts.

I'm not disputing that at all.

I'm only saying that high variance bets can lead to results that are not necessarily indicative of your true skill level for a long time. On his life, my friend is ahead hundreds of thousands of dollars due to a single huge score. That doesn't make him a pro or even necessarily a long term winning player. To be honest, I'm all but certain if he played long enough he'd eventually go negative. That kind of thing could never happen to a win, double or exacta player. The results of low variance bets are statistically significant much faster. So you know you true level much faster. If you are winning steadily on those lower variance bets, you know you have an edge. Then it's a matter of getting enough money through the widows to go pro (which imo is the even tougher part).

[molson721]

This thread started out with good ideas then went into a totally different discussion. I guess this is how the "higher ups" discuss how to bring fans back to the sport? I've always stated that having people pay for parking and admission for the 'privilege" to wager on races with high takeouts was not a good business model.


Casinos are failing for this reason but without the high takeout. Am I right???


Saratoga is a perfect example of this problem. This track has the highest wagering of all tracks in this country and is the best atmosphere to draw new fans to the sport. What does NYRA do? Keep raising prices for fans and families to enter for the "privilege" to wager on high take out wagering and then compare it to what it would cost to go to a Yankee or Met's game?


I could go on about this but I have learned that I will only be called a moron here for this idea! Then again, maybe those people who think I am a moron could explain all the track closures that have taken place over the last 10 years. I look forward to the excuses

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not disputing that at all.

I'm only saying that high variance bets can lead to results that are not necessarily indicative of your true skill level for a long time. On his life, my friend is ahead hundreds of thousands of dollars due to a single huge score. That doesn't make him a pro or even necessarily a long term winning player. To be honest, I'm all but certain if he played long enough he'd eventually go negative. That kind of thing could never happen to a win, double or exacta player. The results of low variance bets are statistically significant much faster. So you know you true level much faster. If you are winning steadily on those lower variance bets, you know you have an edge. Then it's a matter of getting enough money through the widows to go pro (which imo is the even tougher part).

SCREW winning steadily over a lifetime. I would much rather be like your friend. Win once, and take the rest of my life off.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by molson721

This thread started out with good ideas then went into a totally different discussion. I guess this is how the "higher ups" discuss how to bring fans back to the sport? I've always stated that having people pay for parking and admission for the 'privilege" to wager on races with high takeouts was not a good business model.


Casinos are failing for this reason but without the high takeout. Am I right???


Saratoga is a perfect example of this problem. This track has the highest wagering of all tracks in this country and is the best atmosphere to draw new fans to the sport. What does NYRA do? Keep raising prices for fans and families to enter for the "privilege" to wager on high take out wagering and then compare it to what it would cost to go to a Yankee or Met's game?


I could go on about this but I have learned that I will only be called a moron here for this idea! Then again, maybe those people who think I am a moron could explain all the track closures that have taken place over the last 10 years. I look forward to the excuses

Yeah, your argument that Saratoga has the most money wagered and the highest admission so therefore charging admission is bad will certainly be tough to refute...oh wait, if you had a clue you'd see you yourself just refuted it. Maybe read it slowly to yourself a few times and you'll get it.

Ninety percent of money is wagered from home or off track. Admission has nothing to do with anything happening at racetracks these days. They have 1000 times the competition they had before and they're losing out. Maybe bang your head against the wall a few less times before your next post. Or take the time machine out of 1950.

[Candybag]

Originally Posted by molson721

This thread started out with good ideas then went into a totally different discussion. I guess this is how the "higher ups" discuss how to bring fans back to the sport?

Discuss is the problem. And many of the ideas discussed are good points. The discussions are meaningless unless a person in position of authority is listening.

The discussions mainly lack a plan on how to get the person in a position of authority to listen. When I submitted a plan on this forum, some said my plan was farcical or the like. Their plan of action was not submitted, just their criticism of my plan.

There is no chance of change unless an attempt is made. To think otherwise or criticize an effort is the farcical aspect.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Candybag

Discuss is the problem. And many of the ideas discussed are good points. The discussions are meaningless unless a person in position of authority is listening.

The discussions mainly lack a plan on how to get the person in a position of authority to listen. When I submitted a plan on this forum, some said my plan was farcical or the like. Their plan of action was not submitted, just their criticism of my plan.

There is no chance of change unless an attempt is made. To think otherwise or criticize an effort is the farcical aspect.

1) You specifically asked for opinions on YOUR plan, which was so stupid that most of us thought you were trolling. If anyone gives Medicaid money to racetracks, directly or indirectly, they should be thrown in jail.

2) If you took a minute to stop posting the same garbage and read this board instead, there are about 10,000 threads on how racing can be improved. It's been discussed ad nauseum, in great detail, with a much greater understanding of the industry than you have displayed on your posts. Unfortunately none of us run a racetrack.

[Candybag]

Originally Posted by castaway01

1) You specifically asked for opinions on YOUR plan, which was so stupid that most of us thought you were trolling. If anyone gives Medicaid money to racetracks, directly or indirectly, they should be thrown in jail.

2) If you took a minute to stop posting the same garbage and read this board instead, there are about 10,000 threads on how racing can be improved. It's been discussed ad nauseum, in great detail, with a much greater understanding of the industry than you have displayed on your posts. Unfortunately none of us run a racetrack.

So stupid may be your description of my plan. However I have people listening to me that are of importance and are taking action with the idea.

People who have ran a racetrack, people who own an ADW and people who work in the field of Medicaid are taking actions with my plan.

Because you do not understand the plan does not make it so stupid. And certainly the people taking the actions are not so stupid, they have actual credentials.

[Candybag]

Take the ideas from the 10,000 threads, form a plan of action, and get those great ideas in front of people of importance.

There is my challenge to everyone on this forum.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Candybag

So stupid may be your description of my plan. However I have people listening to me that are of importance and are taking action with the idea.

People who have ran a racetrack, people who own an ADW and people who work in the field of Medicaid are taking actions with my plan.

Because you do not understand the plan does not make it so stupid. And certainly the people taking the actions are not so stupid, they have actual credentials.

Names please. Without them, this is BS.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

SCREW winning steadily over a lifetime. I would much rather be like your friend. Win once, and take the rest of my life off.

No argument there.

[Candybag]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Names please. Without them, this is BS.

I agree. Not at liberty yet to divulge names. However, it will be a matter of public record soon.