The Handicapper's Cafe

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Excellent call
But can you explain why you did not give us all the card to bet or more races.

Mac

Don't you know that greed is a terrible vice?

I give you the $9 winner, and the $68 exacta cold...and you ask for more.

Haven't you heard that too much money spoils a person?

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Don't you know that greed is a terrible vice?

I give you the $9 winner, and the $68 exacta cold...and you ask for more.

Haven't you heard that too much money spoils a person?

If only more handicappers would follow that advice and cut back on races to bet on.

Mac

[Tom]

OK, seeing how I have a model for 8.5 T at Dmr, let's do the 10th.

First, I look at the horse's records on turf.

1 1 0-0-0 , trainer is 6% on turf routes. OUT
2 2 0-1-0 , trainer is 10% on turf routes - LEAVE IN for now
3 2 0-0-0 , trainer is 12% on turf routes, but J-T combo is 3/4 on turf, ROI 3.40 CONTENDER
4 3 0-0-1 , trainer is 10% and not much in any catagory - OUT
5 1 0-0-0 , trainer is 10%, J-T 0 for 6 on grass. Hot at Dmr so far, and hot with MSW, but turf not his forte. ???
6 6 0-1-0 , trainer is 13%, 28% in MSW....but not turf - OUT
7 4 0-1-1 , trainer is 12% and not much anywhere else either OUT
8 3 0-1-0 , trainer is 10%, but J-T is 24% on turf CONTENDER
9 2 0-1-1 , trainer is 30%, J-T is 50%, big ROI in both catagories, CONTENDER
10 5 0-0-1 , trainer is 22% and a positive ROI, CONTENDER

So far, 2,3,5?,8,9,10 are the contenders.

2 - ran up front in his two turf routes, 2nd two back, rushed up faded last time. Used 2nd line back.
3 - third off a layouff, stretched out first time last, speed for 6 furlongs. Used that line
4 - three turf routes, no stretch punch, looking like a proven loser for sure - use the 2nd back, but remember, need good odds on this one
5 - good line first route, use it
8 - no turf routes - OUT
9 - two good routes, use the last
10 - no form, OUT

Now I have the 4-5-9 as my HTR horses.
Looking at CJ figs, the 9 is his 4 rules horse, so that is now my top horse
Also looking good on CJs is the 7 horse - a top closer with competitvie back figs.

Now, the 7 is also an HTR BOMB horse, so I will keep him on my list.

My final contenders are 5-9-4-7
Tough race, can't get the cpntenders down to three....but let the odds tell me what to do

[Tom]

Here is my velocity look at the race, remember, I am looking for other than early horses.

[Tom]

Here is my odds line for the race.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The teacher needs to strut his stuff on occasion...or else he stands to lose the attention of the class.

Excellent analysis and betting.

Ice.

Now, how do I get my laptop to ring as soon as you post your selections - I don't want to miss them?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Tom

Here is my odds line for the race.

OK, top pick is an overlay, and I cashed on it.
I have to admit, I had a WP ticket on the 36-1 as well, as a saver.
No exactas - race was too muddy.
But the overlay was nice at 5-1.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Don't you know that greed is a terrible vice?

I give you the $9 winner, and the $68 exacta cold...and you ask for more.

Haven't you heard that too much money spoils a person?

Thaskalos,

You mentioned in an earlier post you would be lost without speed and pace figures (which I dont believe)

In your selection it didnt appear there was much of an emphasis on the above...

I agree figures can be extremely useful....but Im of the opinion you can be "lost" just as easily solely relying on them.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

Thaskalos,

You mentioned in an earlier post you would be lost without speed and pace figures (which I dont believe)

In your selection it didnt appear there was much of an emphasis on the above...

I agree figures can be extremely useful....but Im of the opinion you can be "lost" just as easily solely relying on them.

My friend,

I don't rely "solely" on the figures...and the real skill is in interpreting them properly within the framework and peculiarities of individual races.

I would be lost without my speed and pace figures...because I refuse to bet on "slow" horses.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My friend,

I don't rely "solely" on the figures...and the real skill is in interpreting them properly within the framework and peculiarities of individual races.

I would be lost without my speed and pace figures...because I refuse to bet on "slow" horses.

Oh how true

Mac

[dkithore]

TOM

Thanks for sharing your Contender selection method.

DK

[Exotic1]

Echo that.

Tom, thanks for your work.

[jdhanover]

Gus -

Nice call. Speaking of call..give me a call tomorrow (Sunday)

Jon

[sammy the sage]

one HELL of a job by EVERYBODY....

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My friend,

I don't rely "solely" on the figures...and the real skill is in interpreting them properly within the framework and peculiarities of individual races.

I would be lost without my speed and pace figures...because I refuse to bet on "slow" horses.

My main point was if you "erased" all of the speed/pace figures for a given race
you would not be entirely lost....nothing more.