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View Poll Results: What would be the MINIMUM post time odds you would accept to bet on American Pharoa
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100-1
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3 |
3.61% |
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50-1
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0 |
0% |
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20-1
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1 |
1.20% |
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15-1
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0 |
0% |
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12-1
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0 |
0% |
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10-1
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3 |
3.61% |
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8-1
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0 |
0% |
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6-1
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2 |
2.41% |
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5-1
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5 |
6.02% |
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4-1
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5 |
6.02% |
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7/2
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1 |
1.20% |
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3-1
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5 |
6.02% |
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5/2
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7 |
8.43% |
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2-1
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21 |
25.30% |
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3-1
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3 |
3.61% |
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1-1
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13 |
15.66% |
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4/5
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9 |
10.84% |
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3/5
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1 |
1.20% |
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2/5
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0 |
0% |
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1/5
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0 |
0% |
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It doesn’t matter, I don’t care. I’m betting AP.
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4 |
4.82% |
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05-29-2015, 04:51 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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If he goes off at 2-1 or 5-2 I'll put $20 on him for kicks. Otherwise, I'll just watch. I think he's going to win, but I've never been much of a Belmont Stakes bettor. Usually been an interested observer. I did bet Victory Gallop all those years ago however. I thought he'd turn the tables on Real Quiet, but I sure didn't expect a finish like they gave us.
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05-29-2015, 04:55 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Can you fix the poll results board to read 3-2 instead of having 2 3-1s?
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05-29-2015, 08:53 AM
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#18
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ultracapper
Can you fix the poll results board to read 3-2 instead of having 2 3-1s?
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I realized I bleeped that up after I posted. The site let's you change your post within a few minutes of posting, but, for some reason, not anything in a poll, at least I couldn't do it.
If there is a moderator around, that bottom 3-1 should be 3/2. Thanks
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05-29-2015, 03:12 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 733
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AP
American Pharaoh will probably go off at 4/5 at the Belmont (deservingly so). He has a legitimate chance to win the Belmont.
I laughed when people would bet him at 10/1 or greater.
If AP went off at 3/1 or greater. I would bet with both fists against him. He would be the "iciest on the board" horse of the year, and would not hit the board.
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05-29-2015, 05:16 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by porchy44
American Pharaoh will probably go off at 4/5 at the Belmont (deservingly so). He has a legitimate chance to win the Belmont.
I laughed when people would bet him at 10/1 or greater.
If AP went off at 3/1 or greater. I would bet with both fists against him. He would be the "iciest on the board" horse of the year, and would not hit the board.
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Let's say that AP is "ice on the board" at 3/1 odds in the Belmont. What do you mean by "I would bet with both fists against him"? What actual bet would you make?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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05-29-2015, 07:02 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 733
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Let's say that AP is "ice on the board" at 3/1 odds in the Belmont. What do you mean by "I would bet with both fists against him"? What actual bet would you make?
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I was dreaming of "exchange wagering"
but i would bet Materiality
Last edited by porchy44; 05-29-2015 at 07:04 PM.
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05-30-2015, 01:12 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Last year Chromie went off at 4/5 in the tote pools but 3/2 on Betfair SP.
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05-30-2015, 01:28 AM
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#23
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by porchy44
If AP went off at 3/1 or greater. I would bet with both fists against him. He would be the "iciest on the board" horse of the year, and would not hit the board.
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this is true.
I voted '4/5', but honestly, I would not bet him at any price in the Belmont (even if the race wasn't 4 days after my cardiac surgery).
(From my perspective) the public has the Belmont Stakes 'right'.
After 15% is taken out of the win pool, there simply isn't a lot of value left if the public has the race correctly figured out. I'll pass.
I bet AP in the derby (because I thought he was a significant overlay), and reluctantly passed the Preakness(because the public was all over AP).
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-30-2015 at 01:30 AM.
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05-30-2015, 02:56 PM
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#24
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,658
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Some_One
Last year Chromie went off at 4/5 in the tote pools but 3/2 on Betfair SP.
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I suspect things will be different this time around.
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05-30-2015, 05:54 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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On AP - Currently there is 1200 dollars available to back at 1.12-1 and 35 dollars available to back at 1.14-1. On the other side, 64 dollars available to lay at 1.18 and 104 dollars available to lay at 1.58-1
The other big two are at Frosted 4-1 & Materiality 5.8-1
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05-31-2015, 05:10 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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i think it's a bad betting race. i think in THAT race you have to bet alot to win alot and that is not my betting philosophy.
of course pharoah will be an underlay as the concept of "psychic income" kicks in, an accounting term where one get's more than a monetary value. the pharoah ticket will be a collector's piece if he should win
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06-03-2015, 06:03 PM
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#27
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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This poll is now closed. The median odds being around 2-1, meaning AP has around a one in three shot on Saturday. I think it’s higher than that but , hey, the tribe has spoken.
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