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03-09-2022, 04:49 PM
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#31
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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PA R9
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-09-2022, 05:57 PM
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#32
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
PA R9
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7/9 $1 EXACTA PAYOUT AT TRACK WAS $7.40
MY TOTAL EXACTA BET WAS $117.45, RETURNING $267.95
MY WIN BET WAS $46.52, RETURNING $67.78
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-10-2022, 08:42 AM
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#33
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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If making the win play and exacta as I have shown, it affords more places to layoff money with minimum impact on the odds.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-10-2022, 07:10 PM
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#34
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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ct r1
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-10-2022, 07:20 PM
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#35
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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twp r3
my download had the win pool value at $24000 with the #1 the fav
final win pool was over $40,000 with the #7 the fav and it won
7/1 exacta
given the $40000 pool this would have been a pass race for me.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 03-10-2022 at 07:33 PM.
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03-10-2022, 09:56 PM
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#36
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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twp r8
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-11-2022, 10:40 AM
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#37
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Proud to announce that there were 3 winning bet and exacta plays in my first 6 live race undertaking
win bet returned $1.48 on the dollar, $1.14 for the exacta bets
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-11-2022, 11:46 AM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,736
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Just want to confirm that all of this data was taken after the races, when pool sizes were 100% known?
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03-11-2022, 12:26 PM
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#39
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
Just want to confirm that all of this data was taken after the races, when pool sizes were 100% known?
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No, the Live races, in this case the last 6 race tote board data was down loaded as the horses were at the gate.
I use twinspires data. they generally present the data one last time before the race is off.
by the time I post the data to this web site the race is close to its end.
this could be overcome by some good programing, which, at this time iis above my pay grade.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-11-2022, 09:42 PM
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#40
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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CORRECTION
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Proud to announce that there were 3 winning bet and exacta plays in my first 6 live race undertaking
win bet returned $1.15 on the dollar, $1.14 for the exacta bets |
TODAY WENT ONE FOR TWO.
8 RACE TOTAL
$1 WIN BET RETURN = $1.20, EXACTA $1 RETURN $1.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-12-2022, 08:50 AM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
twp r3
my download had the win pool value at $24000 with the #1 the fav
final win pool was over $40,000 with the #7 the fav and it won
7/1 exacta
given the $40000 pool this would have been a pass race for me.
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hunh__________??????
per your attached thumbnail in race 9 in Parx on 3/9 you got a 1/2 payout on the #7 horse
but you don't mention betting any other horses
I thought your thing was to dutch horses - are you saying you didn't bet any other horses in that race?
the same goes for Turfway on 3/10 - per your attached thumbnail you got an even money payout on the 6 horse in race 8
looks like from the thumbnail you bet only on that horse to win
so this is now your thing?_________no more dutching_______just betting a strong favorite to win if the pools indicate such a play is wise___________??????
and if this is the case what do you want to see in the pools to make a bet like this - a greater % in the place and show pools than in the win pools____?
the language that you use is "top win"______what does "top win" mean
and why do you use language such as this which is obviously unclear_______?
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-12-2022 at 08:52 AM.
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03-12-2022, 09:15 AM
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#42
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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As for the win bet, I analyze three horses in each race
the favorite (top, public's #1 choice)
the 2nd favorite (Public's 2nd choice )
and the 3rd favorite (public's 3rd choice)
if there is a play on the top choice there are no plays on the 2nd or 3rd choice.
if there is no play on the top choice, there MAYBE a play on both the 2nd and third choice. At this time I not certain betting BOTH 2nd AND 3rd choice are profitable.
The investigation now centers on the tote board pool sizes as the horses approach the gate.
If and when I post the play to this web site, the horses are probably in the home stretch or the race is finished.
It these plays to continue their success, I would invest in a program that does all the required work that could make timely bets at an ADW before the gate opens, using this same tote board data.
in addition to the win play, I also make an exacta play when ever one of the top three favorites are a play.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-12-2022, 02:43 PM
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#43
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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TODAY, AFTER 6 RACES NO WINNERS
TOP RANK IS 0 FOR 3
2ND AND 3 RANKS 0 FOR3
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-16-2022, 08:34 AM
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#44
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Results after 21 LIVE races
my $1 favorite return was $0.98, 6 winners in 21 races
the public flat bet on 7 favorites of 21 races was only $0.62
I outperformed the public by 0.98/0.62 = 158%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 03-16-2022 at 08:39 AM.
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03-16-2022, 07:14 PM
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#45
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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HELPS TO WIN TWO IN A ROW
my $1 favorite return was $1.11, 8 winners in 23 races
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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