The Ultimate Odds Line

[NormanTD]

Originally Posted by Tom

Yes.

Thank you.

[mountainman]

Not my style or type of pursuit, Tom and Dave. But impressive and well-conceived. My compliments.

[lamboguy]

i bet a first-time starter at Parx Tuesday, the horse went in the gate @ 7-1, he survived the objection and paid $27.00.

i felt like bringing this up because its one of the few times i ever got paid more than his odds in the gate. the CAW must have bet against it because the trainer hardly wins any race let alone first-time starters. and as luck would have it, the second-placed horse was trained by the same trainer! i never thought about playing the trick though.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i bet a first-time starter at Parx Tuesday, the horse went in the gate @ 7-1, he survived the objection and paid $27.00.

i felt like bringing this up because its one of the few times i ever got paid more than his odds in the gate. the CAW must have bet against it because the trainer hardly wins any race let alone first-time starters. and as luck would have it, the second-placed horse was trained by the same trainer! i never thought about playing the trick though.

Congrats lamboguy.


Your FTS winner actually opened up at 7-2. The barn bet early and might have owned the entire exacta pool as well since the uncoupled entry mate finished second coming from a low-percentage trainer.

[formula_2002]

I would gather that it may be ones "ultimate", but is it profiteable.

[Tom]

iIt is ultimate because it uses thr BRIS Ultimate PPs.
It is "profitable" if you use it smartlt. It is not a system, it is a tool. I use it evalaute contenders, to uncover potential overlays, and to gage contentiousness of a race. I explained it all in the pdf.
I may pass a horse it pegs as 4-1 when it goes off 9-1. I may bet a 5-2 shot that it pegs at 3-1. I posted many live plays in selections, prior to PT,

Yes, I have been making money for several months now.

[fight]

TOM CAN YOU GIVE US THE ODDS FOR 74 TOTAL PTS TY

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Tom

iIt is ultimate because it uses thr BRIS Ultimate PPs.
It is "profitable" if you use it smartlt. It is not a system, it is a tool. I use it evalaute contenders, to uncover potential overlays, and to gage contentiousness of a race. I explained it all in the pdf.
I may pass a horse it pegs as 4-1 when it goes off 9-1. I may bet a 5-2 shot that it pegs at 3-1. I posted many live plays in selections, prior to PT,

Yes, I have been making money for several months now.

Oh. sorry I thought responded sooner. Congratulations
Very pleased for you
Going now to the "submit reply" button

[Tom]

Originally Posted by fight

TOM CAN YOU GIVE US THE ODDS FOR 74 TOTAL PTS TY

Here you go. I should have included this sooner.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Oh. sorry I thought responded sooner. Congratulations
Very pleased for you
Going now to the "submit reply" button

Thank you.

[big frank]

Anyone been using the lines ???? if so how have you been doing ? thanks

[Greyhound Friend]

I, too, have been using Dave Schwartz's How to Figure Out What Wins for almost four years. I use it to help get to the race contenders using the BRIS Race Summary categories Prime Power, best Final Speed for comparable distance/surface (signified by a dot next to the speed rating), and ACL.

I don't score by Fibonacci numbers just good old 1-2-3 for best, second-best, third best and, per Dave's write-up, horses with two 1's, two 2's, or 1 and 2 for at least two of the categories are strong contenders.

After review, I input an appropriate paceline from these contenders (as well as others I may deem worthy) into MPH-PRO to generate Sartin numbers and an odds-line.

Before MPH I would make my own 80/20 line a la Steve Fierro. Incorporating MPH lets the program do the grunt work and I validate any line that looks outlandish.
I appreciate Tom bringing his approach.
Thanks.
Harry

[Tom]

Thank you, Harry.
Do you use MPH on-line or do you have it on your computer?
Csan you keep a model in this version?

I'm using the original DOS version, and am considering moving up.

Thanks,

Tom

[Greyhound Friend]

Tom, I use the online version. There is no "save" function in the program that I know. Possibly you could print to a file with MPH's printable version feature.



p.s. In my previous post I said I use the Prime Power column in the Race Summary. This is for dirt races. For turf races I have found that the Current Class column is more productive rather than the Prime Power.


Harry

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Greyhound Friend

I, too, have been using Dave Schwartz's How to Figure Out What Wins for almost four years. I use it to help get to the race contenders using the BRIS Race Summary categories Prime Power, best Final Speed for comparable distance/surface (signified by a dot next to the speed rating), and ACL.

I don't score by Fibonacci numbers just good old 1-2-3 for best, second-best, third best and, per Dave's write-up, horses with two 1's, two 2's, or 1 and 2 for at least two of the categories are strong contenders.

After review, I input an appropriate paceline from these contenders (as well as others I may deem worthy) into MPH-PRO to generate Sartin numbers and an odds-line.

Before MPH I would make my own 80/20 line a la Steve Fierro. Incorporating MPH lets the program do the grunt work and I validate any line that looks outlandish.
I appreciate Tom bringing his approach.
Thanks.
Harry

Harry,
That's great to hear.

Just yesterday I put up this 1-hour video HSH workshop on simple pace handicapping. Simple for HSH guys, anyway.

But there are a couple of ideas in there - one about picking contenders using PSR - that you might be able to use. (PSR is highly similar to BRIS Prime Power.)

LINK TO VIDEO