Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-04-2022, 06:06 PM   #31
lagavulin62
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 35
This looks really good. I am going to utilize it this weekend. I do have one question about the brisnet numbers. I am knew to brisnet so on your column “early pace, last race” are you using E1 or E2? Thanks.
lagavulin62 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2022, 06:37 PM   #32
Speed Figure
DJ M.Walk
 
Speed Figure's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Compton, CA!
Posts: 1,969
In sprints it's E1, in routes it's E2.
Speed Figure is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2022, 07:00 PM   #33
lagavulin62
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 35
Thanks
lagavulin62 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2022, 08:01 PM   #34
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 107,613
This will explain a lot of the BRIS Ultimate PPs.
Glad you are interested and good luck.

Quote:
Early Pace Last Race: The early pace rating earned by each horse in its last start, regardless of distance or surface. If the last
race was a sprint, the number will be the E2 pace rating and if it was a route, it will be the El pace rating.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf uwc.pdf (1.31 MB, 118 views)
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?

Last edited by Tom; 04-04-2022 at 08:05 PM.
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-05-2022, 11:18 AM   #35
lagavulin62
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 35
Thanks Tom for clarifying with the link. I had actually read that and was a little confused at first.

As I have never purchased brisnet pp’s, can I purchase the ultimate download in pdf like with DRF? The site is not clear on formats, at least not for non members as I have not joined yet.

Thanks again and sorry for all the questions.
lagavulin62 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-05-2022, 12:16 PM   #36
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 107,613
Yes, go to the PPs tab, and the first option is the Ultimate PPs.

Feel free to ask questions, and good luck.

Attached Images
File Type: png ultimate.PNG (23.6 KB, 46 views)
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-06-2022, 10:52 AM   #37
Aerocraft67
Enthusiast
 
Aerocraft67's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 537
I've considered using Prime Power or its cousin on TwinSpires, Profit Line, as an alternative morning line. The primary appeal of these vs. the track's own ML is a consistent methodology across tracks, and a more forthright reckoning of price disparity and overwhelming favorites. The downside is giving up the linemakers' particular insights into the home track.

Accuracy certainly helps, but I'm more about consistency here. That said, it sounds like you guys are having some success using the scores as proper value lines.

Do you see BRIS ratings, particularly Prime Power, as more of a value line or a morning line? Is it more predictive of final odds or final outcomes? Obviously the latter would be ideal, but I'd be happy with the former.

Do you see the TwinSpires Profit Line sufficiently similar to BRIS Prime Power to use interchangeably? I assume the methods are related. Of course PL has the advantage of being expressed as odds already.

If I'm just trying to get a decent estimate of final odds, even just ordinal rank with a little gap analysis, is PP or PL any better than ML?

I'm also assuming that PP and PL are more automated than ML. This makes PP and PL more akin to modern algorithms driving handle and odds—even if they're not nearly as sophisticated—than the presumably more subjective judgements of individual linemakers.

But that's a question for another thread—do linemakers factor the overwhelming influence of automated modeling and wagering on final odds, or is it still more of a "pencil and paper" type endeavor?
Aerocraft67 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-06-2022, 04:17 PM   #38
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 107,613
I can't comment on PL as I don't use it, but the Sartin guys over at Pace and Cap use both PP and PL.

I am working on the idea of making a line totally from PP and have already set up some acceptable odds for each PP rank, ie, #1 can be played at 8-5, # 4 needs min 6-1.....like that.

I'm making a spreadsheet for the PP line making and will post it when I get it finished.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 01:18 PM   #39
douglasw32
douglasw32
 
douglasw32's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Horseheads, NY
Posts: 1,630
Thumbs up Wow - this is awesome.

Thanks for sharing this ! (Been gone since the beginning of the pandemic)
Glad to be back.
__________________
My Twitter
FaceBook
douglasw32 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 01:44 PM   #40
lagavulin62
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 35
Tom, I actually won on a 9-1 horse a few weeks ago. I wrote a nice 3 paragraph post because I wanted to share but unfortunately just before posting my tablet got a hiccup and erased my post. Lol. Totally pissed me off as you can imagine and I could never do just justice to the original with a rewrite, esp right after it happened. So here is a summary as best I can remember.

Basically I did a one race test(2 dollar win bet) on a turf race. The horse I selected was the 3rd selection based on the formula. The formula odds were I believe 5-1 but ml was around 8-1. This was a first time turfer but breeding said he would be good. Also on dirt he had done well on the distance w same class as the race. So, just before post he even got to 14-1. Long story short he wins. Lead from the 1st call and won by I think 2 1/2 lengths. Final odds at payout were 8.5/1. I know its just one race but I got to the track late because they started early for some reason. I will link the charts as soon as I get home.
lagavulin62 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-19-2022, 07:55 PM   #41
lagavulin62
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 35
Ok as promised, for the above race details checkout the charts for Sam Houston race 6, April 9, Witt’s Taquito. After double checking the ML was actually 12-1. So the formula finding this at 5-1 was really good. Again this was a turf race at 1 mile. Allowance N1x or N2L.
lagavulin62 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-10-2022, 08:30 PM   #42
jim michalak
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 28
what about early and late pace?

tom:are early and late pace no longer factors? or is the scoring system the same for both of them as before? thanks.
jim michalak is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2022, 10:40 AM   #43
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 107,613
I cut back after Aqu got running because the results showed EP and LP were not as important as PP,ACL and SLR, so it was quicker to just focus on those three.

Now that Bel is back, I will re-evaluate and maybe switch back, but either way is viable. I'm looking at other tracks now to0, CD, Parx, and both look promising with just the three factors.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2022, 09:27 PM   #44
FocusWiz
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
So named because it uses the BRIS Ultimate PPs A semi-automatic method that creates a Power Number and an odds line, pre-calculated for you, based on the total score each horse gets. You don't even need to rate all the horses, just one if you loke, to see what odds it might get,

All is explained in the attached PDF. The idea came from discussing handicapping with Dave Schwartz and his Figuring Out What Wins seminar.
I have read your posts for years, agreed with many and disagreed with many, but usually learned a bit along the way.

I have to take a moment to thank you for the detailed document you shared.

I have been reviewing your technique for a couple of weeks and believe that it does what you say it will. It doesn't try to finely predict how many noses between the first and second finisher, but rather globally identifies some potential contenders. It is also easily tailored to the information you have available and the weights you want to assign to them.

I was getting a bit annoyed that it sometime picked odds-on favorites and other times include 70-1 shots. The attached pick convinced me that there is something to the simple logic it uses.

Attached Images
File Type: png ForTom.png (7.3 KB, 30 views)
FocusWiz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-25-2022, 11:43 PM   #45
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 107,613
Thanks for the kind words, hope you had it.
I'm glad a few others have found it useful, too.

I keep a model of the results to make I pick up on changes, and some interesting things pop up.

I'll post a summary update later this week. I have a lt more turf races now, and some patterns are coming to light.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:30 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.