Time for Contraction

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

Contraction isn’t going to make owners want to watch their horses run on tv, they will leave the game

What??....Is that YOUR argument against contraction?....

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

What??....Is that YOUR argument against contraction?....

Greyhound racing has gone through quite a bit of contraction the past decade, not sure that makes it a better to bet on.

I dont know why people would breed horses if there are like 1000 running per year. I dont think Ky would be keen on this contraction as suggested earlier.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont know why people would breed horses if there are like 1000 running per year. I dont think Ky would be keen on this contraction as suggested earlier.

I'm sorry, but Kentucky isn't running our sport. I'm only interested in what's best for the game to survive and then move forward.....Kentucky is NOT central to the equation, IMO.

[The_Turf_Monster]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

What??....Is that YOUR argument against contraction?....

Horses running at the high end is what drives this sport. Less owners means less horses bred which means fewer horses that can compete on the high end which leads to less formful racing which leads to less players which leads handle which leads to lower purses which drives even more owners out of the sport, then we continue watching it go down the drain after somebody flushes the sport with the contraction lever on the toilet.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

Horses running at the high end is what drives this sport. Less owners means less horses bred which means fewer horses that can compete on the high end which leads to less formful racing which leads to less players which leads handle which leads to lower purses which drives even more owners out of the sport, then we continue watching it go down the drain after somebody flushes the sport with the contraction lever on the toilet.

Have you even read a portion of this thread?...I Don't believe you have, as your post is so backwards, it isn't even accidently funny.

Put the customer first, break-up the monopoly of super-trainers, cleanup the drug problems, appoint a racing czar for the entire country....These are just for starters.....We have talked about many revamps that are needed endlessly, yet nothing seems like it changes, except the continual decline.

The Tail has been wagging the Dog for too long, new leadership is needed, the old guard needs the boot, the sooner the better for the BETTOR. Take 2 tracks in any state that are running 5 horse fields and combine them into one entity running a minimum of 8 horse fields....Individual states are the biggest problem, they must be unified into regions with a single racing Hub for that specific area.

Contraction is GOOD and is the ONLY way the sport can survive, regroup and reinvent itself.

[airford1]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

Contraction isn’t going to make owners want to watch their horses run on tv, they will leave the game

True statement. Like it or not the sport needs Owners and we want to see our horses run in person. My Horse, my Money, if I have to move to be a part of this Great Sport, well aint going to happen so I hope you do well with new owners. Good luck with that.

[airford1]

"Contraction is GOOD and is the ONLY way the sport can survive, regroup and reinvent itself."
HUM, this has been a problem on the Horizon for DECADES and the only things we saw to reinvent or right the ship has been ? NOTHING of any impact. Contraction? Do you think there will be any Turf racing in America with the inevitable Bankruptcy of American Horse Racing,. My bad we call it Contraction? How many river beds have grass, because that is where the racing will be in a few decades if that long. Peta has us in their sights with media support. Horse racing feels the pain , but cant pull the fork out. Call me Crazy

[airford1]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

What??....Is that YOUR argument against contraction?....

California, Close the Southern Track and combine it with the Northern Track. The fight to gain control of the racing dates would interesting let alone the fact you are combining Synthetic track with dirt track runners and 700 miles between the 2 tracks. Northern California horsemen are dealing with a cheaper horse population than what we find at Santa Anita and Del Mar, how is that going to work? You will lose at least HALF of the owners and the better horses will leave like they already have. We haven't helped ourselves in 50 years and we think we are going right the ship with buzz words. Maybe the ship has Sailed.

[classhandicapper]

Any time you reduce the number of horses being bred, you are less likely to breed high quality horses, but it's not straight forward.

We are still going to breed Into Mischief, Curlin, Tapit, Street Sense, Liam's Map, Candy Ride, American Pharoah etc.. as many times as we do now. It's the 3rd tier and lower quality statebred sires that would be reduced. So for discussion's sake, if we breed half as many horses going forward (kind if like we are doing now relative to the peak anyway), we aren't going to lose half of the stakes quality horses. We'd lose a few at the margin.

[The_Turf_Monster]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Any time you reduce the number of horses being bred, you are less likely to breed high quality horses, but it's not straight forward.

We are still going to breed Into Mischief, Curlin, Tapit, Street Sense, Liam's Map, Candy Ride, American Pharoah etc.. as many times as we do now. It's the 3rd tier and lower quality statebred sires that would be reduced. So for discussion's sake, if we breed half as many horses going forward (kind if like we are doing now relative to the peak anyway), we aren't going to lose half of the stakes quality horses. We'd lose a few at the margin.

This would be a great conversation to have with a breeding outfit and I agree with you that the high end would still be breeding. My guess is that a lot of the high end wouldn’t be breeding in the US and for those that do, even more of their offspring would end up overseas

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Any time you reduce the number of horses being bred, you are less likely to breed high quality horses, but it's not straight forward.

We are still going to breed Into Mischief, Curlin, Tapit, Street Sense, Liam's Map, Candy Ride, American Pharoah etc.. as many times as we do now. It's the 3rd tier and lower quality statebred sires that would be reduced. So for discussion's sake, if we breed half as many horses going forward (kind if like we are doing now relative to the peak anyway), we aren't going to lose half of the stakes quality horses. We'd lose a few at the margin.

Right. And that is SOME loss, because sometimes horses with pedestrian breeding like Snow Chief and John Henry become big successes. So we would lose a few of those.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Right. And that is SOME loss, because sometimes horses with pedestrian breeding like Snow Chief and John Henry become big successes. So we would lose a few of those.

The problem is I haven't heard a good alternative to contraction.

We saw what happens when fewer tracks are open during the pandemic. The remaining ones got a boat load of extra handle. There's huge operating leverage in that and it doesn't stop any positive action that can be taken to grow the percentage of the total gambling dollar directed towards racing. All that extra free cash could theoretically be invested in the sport and change the economics for a lot of stakeholders (assuming politics is not too much of a drag).

As sports gambling grows and poker returns racing is probably looking at smaller percentage of a slowly growing pie. It will be very lucky to run in place (after inflation).

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The problem is I haven't heard a good alternative to contraction.

We saw what happens when fewer tracks are open during the pandemic. The remaining ones got a boat load of extra handle. There's huge operating leverage in that and it doesn't stop any positive action that can be taken to grow the percentage of the total gambling dollar directed towards racing. All that extra free cash could theoretically be invested in the sport and change the economics for a lot of stakeholders (assuming politics is not too much of a drag).

As sports gambling grows and poker returns racing is probably looking at smaller percentage of a slowly growing pie. It will be very lucky to run in place (after inflation).

Don't you think the remaining tracks got a boatload of extra handle because gamblers were limited in their options?


Contraction will necessarily bring fewer qualified trainers, jockeys, grooms, and other necessary personnel. The minor leagues of racing will be where the contraction takes place and that is where people acquire their skills to be in the big leagues.


As an old-timer in racing I acquired my love for the sport by going to live racing. I am guessing that contraction would mean that many future fans would need to get hooked via TV. I am not optimistic that racing can generate enough new interest when access to live racing is greatly diminished.

[castaway01]

I see this, hundreds of posts about "contraction" and I wonder what world you are all living in. Here's a few facts that I don't understand how you've missed.

The government doesn't own racetracks. This isn't Hong Kong. You can't "order" places to close. So "time for contraction" is a flawed premise to begin with.

But then everyone who wants "contraction"....aren't you paying attention????

In 1992, there were over 70,000 horse races run in the United States.

In 2008, it was slightly over 50,000 races.

In 2020, it was 27,700 races. You want pre-pandemic, in 2019 it was a little over 36,000 races. So that's very close to 50% contraction of the industry in less than 30 years. Those who want contraction...how can you not see that we already have been "contracting" for three decades? That's the horse racing reality you're already living in.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The problem is I haven't heard a good alternative to contraction.

We saw what happens when fewer tracks are open during the pandemic. The remaining ones got a boat load of extra handle. There's huge operating leverage in that and it doesn't stop any positive action that can be taken to grow the percentage of the total gambling dollar directed towards racing. All that extra free cash could theoretically be invested in the sport and change the economics for a lot of stakeholders (assuming politics is not too much of a drag).

As sports gambling grows and poker returns racing is probably looking at smaller percentage of a slowly growing pie. It will be very lucky to run in place (after inflation).

My view has been that huge contraction was inevitable once simulcasting began, because handle would concentrate among a few tracks.