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Preakness this year vs. last year
Last year we had allowance losers trying to step to AP, and now we've got grade 3 champions who look the part and for the most part just took a different route from our derby runners to get to this point.
Even Laobon ran a very good 4th to a race where closers ruled and Brody's Cause, who's very legitimate, beat him by four even with the slow start and good pace, and he's 30/1 ML.
In the derby we're dealing with a huge field where you have to judge young horses who have been building for a monster performance all meeting at once. This preakness, with so many of the perceived second tier 3 year olds coming in well rested taking a shot at the darling, who just had to deliver at 1 1/4 and comes in 2 weeks later.
I know he's the horse to beat, but this Preakness field is amazing compared to recent fields and will give him a handful.
Stradivari reminds me of Uncle Mo. You aren't that good, figuring it out after just one race, to not have mental toughness with a mentality that wants to race, and that to me is what class is. It's visual. Does this horse care that the horses he is running with is more up to his speed, maybe faster, to not deliver his race. Is he mentally average? This one doesn't look like that to me.
Awesome speed, not in a running style kind of way but the other kind of way that I can't describe, reminds me of Caleb's Posse. A BAM kind of stride. I think he had trouble in the Fountain and that might not speak to a class ceiling.
Collected should run his race with that post working to let him do his running the same way he always does with a month layoff after hardly being asked in the Lexington. Does he have the class? Visually, he sure does.
Cherry Wine will be closing like a good horse, as all of these horses are, and broke his maiden on an off track. He might not have the talent, but he's formful and could get into the exotics if connections let pace setters be pace setters with the hope that they catch a bit of lightnight (they don't need to improve very much to be viable), Cherry wine and Exaggerator could be there at the end.
Consider Nyquist's soft 2016, which has worked fine for him and I'm not knocking it. Asking him to race in 2 weeks after the unreal experience of what the Derby is may have him wondering why he's on the track in the gate and may fold to a group of horses who, for at least 4/5 of the race, will be right with him breathing down each others throats. I just won't be shocked if a number of these can deliver a shocker and we see Nyquist fold a little not because he's not special, but because this is the Triple Crown. Figures be damned, he is vulnerable to more than just one in this race.
Last edited by cordep17; 05-21-2016 at 02:59 PM.
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