The case for Exaggerator

[porchy44]

1) Since he has changed his running style (late)
a )First in the Santa Anita Derby.
b) Fast closing second in the Derby.

2) Churchill was biased Thurs Fri Sat Derby Week
a) Every dirt winner those days were no worse than
4th at the first call.
b) Nyquist was 2nd at first call.

3) Preakness will probably be run on a sloppy track.
a) Exaggerator fired a big one in the Santa Anita slop.

4) derby winner Nyquist will be overbet.
a) Think of the $2 dollar tickets alone.

[SecretAgentMan]

Bet $10,000 on Exaggerator to win if you like him, he will go off 4-1

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Bet $10,000 on Exaggerator to win if you like him, he will go off 4-1

You'll never get 4-1, more like 2-1

[Valuist]

Exaggerator certainly gets a big shot, but not because he was hindered by any so-called speed bias. One turn races are a better gauge for biases, and of the 6 one turn dirt races at CD on Derby day, not one was won wire to wire. And if anything, the inner paths looked like they were not the place to be.

[zico20]

How about he has to beat him some time. He is 0 for 4 against him at numerous distances. He simply isn't as good and will need Nyquist to run a sub par race in order to beat him.

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Exaggerator certainly gets a big shot, but not because he was hindered by any so-called speed bias. One turn races are a better gauge for biases, and of the 6 one turn dirt races at CD on Derby day, not one was won wire to wire. And if anything, the inner paths looked like they were not the place to be.

For 3 days pressers were lights out. (2nd 3rd 4th first call). When Nyquist broke second in Derby I declared him the winner 10 seconds into the race.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by porchy44

For 3 days pressers were lights out. (2nd 3rd 4th first call). When Nyquist broke second in Derby I declared him the winner 10 seconds into the race.

Yes, however Ky Derby runners-up have won only 2 of the last 59 runnings of the Preakness. Whereas 22 of the Derby winners have repeated in the Preakness in that span.

[RXB]

Going back four more years will include a streak where three of four Derby second finishers won the Preakness. Let's include that; it's still 22-5 over the past 63 years for the Derby winners vs the runners-up.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by zico20

How about he has to beat him some time. He is 0 for 4 against him at numerous distances. He simply isn't as good and will need Nyquist to run a sub par race in order to beat him.

No he doesn't. He just has to move up a couple of lengths on the slop.

Which he does. I am betting him.

[f2tornado]

Exaggerator will be able to make his closing kick earlier given the minus half panel. He should be running in less traffic. He had to check in the Derby which may or may not have cost him the top spot. It's also possible the inside of the wet track for Nyquist will not be as good as the middle. Nyquist will be inside of honest speed. That can be a hinderence but had no trouble in Derby. i heard closers fared well last week at the track when wet. This would be opposite the relative speed favoring CD track Derby day.

I expect Nyquist and Exaggerator to be 1-2 in either order but also would not be shocked to see one or other falter. I remember Orb sucking air a few years back and he looked every bit like Nyquist until that point.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Exaggerator will be able to make his closing kick earlier given the minus half panel. He should be running in less traffic. He had to check in the Derby which may or may not have cost him the top spot. It's also possible the inside of the wet track for Nyquist will not be as good as the middle. Nyquist will be inside of honest speed. That can be a hinderence but had no trouble in Derby. i heard closers fared well last week at the track when wet. This would be opposite the relative speed favoring CD track Derby day.

I expect Nyquist and Exaggerator to be 1-2 in either order but also would not be shocked to see one or other falter. I remember Orb sucking air a few years back and he looked every bit like Nyquist until that point.

Orb was a closer, nothing like Nyquist and had been the beneficiary of some fortunate pace scenarios, especially in the Ky Derby. Again, anyone who examines the historical Ky Derby charts will see very clearly that the winners who used a front-half running style have repeated their wins at a high rate in the Preakness whereas the backrunning Derby winners fail most of the time.

The second place finishers from the Ky Derby have garnered plenty of seconds and thirds in the Preakness but haven't won very often. I first pointed this out prior to the 2012 Preakness when a lot of people were expecting Bodemeister to turn the tables on I'll Have Another in the Preakness.


http://paceadvantage.com/forum/showt...ss#post1277142

[SandyW]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

No he doesn't. He just has to move up a couple of lengths on the slop.

Which he does. I am betting him.

Nyquist will also move up in the mud with superior off track breeding.
This race is a walkover for Nyquist.

[arw629]

Exxxagertor has bounce written all over him ...0 for 4 vs Nyquist ...Exxxagertor will be the horse overbet the most in this race

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by arw629

Exxxagertor has bounce written all over him ...0 for 4 vs Nyquist ...Exxxagertor will be the horse overbet the most in this race

Agreed, plus he has to catch him (Nyquist).....most likely in the slop........he will be at the mercy of the pace. If there is none, he's done. This could be interesting because many others have the potential of being overlooked.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by SandyW

Nyquist will also move up in the mud with superior off track breeding.
This race is a walkover for Nyquist.

Plenty of horses with "mud breeding" don't move up on the mud the way Exaggerator does.

This race is no "walkover" on paper.