Predicting speed duels

[fishorsechess]

Is there any handicapper here who consistently looks for
speed duels in their handicapping? I usually don't but I
thought it would be a ways to pick up on some longshots
because (a) if a lesser longshot horse can burn out the
favorite with its sharp early fractions a long price horse,
a closer has chance to come in e.g. Birdstone vs. Smarty
Jones (b) If there is only one closer vs all speed horses
chances are that odd ball can win.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by fishorsechess
Is there any handicapper here who consistently looks for
speed duels in their handicapping? I usually don't but I
thought it would be a ways to pick up on some longshots
because (a) if a lesser longshot horse can burn out the
favorite with its sharp early fractions a long price horse,
a closer has chance to come in e.g. Birdstone vs. Smarty
Jones (b) If there is only one closer vs all speed horses
chances are that odd ball can win.

Everybody predicted a speed duel in the Belmont.

[Valuist]

Talk to somebody in the grandstand...check newspaper selectors comments. Usually there's several races a day in which we hear there's "a ton of speed in the race and a deep closer will win." It's been my experience when there's two definitive speeds, they very rarely duel. Somebody always takes back. But guys who bet once or twice a month open their Forms or programs and if they can find a reason to bet a closer, they will.

[KingChas]

I have handicapped many races were I saw four horses full of early speed that I was sure were going to burn each other out on the front end and set it up for a closer.Guess what?One of the speed horses of the four goes out front and keeps going.????It has more to do with the weather and how the tracks playing.Usually when you look at the results of a raceday and see multiple $20+ payouts the track is not holding for early speed or horses just off the pace.If you can catch a day like this and see it early it's Christmas Time!

[Macdiarmadillo]

I think one should consider the larger question of figuring how a race will be run overall. Not only speed, but if pressers will be hung out wide, if closers can make a move through traffic and suchlike. The pace guys do it. You won't be right all the time but it puts you in a position to be right.

Speed duels are more likely in maiden sprints and maiden turf races IMO. It's more between absolute need-to-lead types than pressers that might end up front because the rest of the field is closers. And it usually takes more than 2 absolute front-running types to push it to set things up for a deep closer. There have been too many stakes with 5-6 horse fields in the West with just two front runners, where one didn't break perfectly or just sat behind the leader, and the leader went wire-to-wire.

A similar situation to what KingChas mentioned is when one horse is just better than the rest (maybe just that day), beats the other 3 front runners out of the gate and goes wire-to-wire. Find those superior horses in duels.