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Old 02-03-2019, 07:28 PM   #16
Buckeye
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I just went with the program Tom, The Handicapping Magician.

I don't need to make stuff up about what Black Magic might say.

Last edited by Buckeye; 02-03-2019 at 07:29 PM.
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:16 PM   #17
kingfin66
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Originally Posted by Buckeye View Post
I just went with the program Tom, The Handicapping Magician.

I don't need to make stuff up about what Black Magic might say.
You are correct in that the was the Fulcrum for the race.
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:26 AM   #18
Tom
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I agree, if you don't use the one turn miles , , the is the fulcrum.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:43 AM   #19
cj
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How was he ahead of the 7? Just trying to refresh my memory, not trying to give anyone a hard time. I keep meaning to dig that book out of the attic and give it another look.

It feels like the 5 just kind of fell into it in the software in this case because most of the other horses hadn't raced around two turns. This certainly isn't one I'd want to build plays around, hoping the other horses don't even qualify to be rated.
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Old 02-04-2019, 11:01 AM   #20
Tom
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The fulcrum needs to be verified with a previous race within a fifth to ensure it was not a fluke race.

The only had done the route once, so his 111.3 could not be verified with a previous time within a fifth of it. This race really went to the basement looking a qualifying fulcrum horse.

Now, using the would pretty let every horse in the race, so you would lose the races, but the only way you could win is blindly betting the fulcrum. I just could not find a single thing I like about that one other than several handicappers mentioned him, including Nickk who made him a C in a no Bs race.

I questioned using 1 turn miles to Michael at a seminar in Philly and he was adamant that they should be used. So I was surprised to hear the program used the . But then, that seminar was a long time ago, during the Pace Makes the Race book and seminars, so he probably revised things since then.
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:34 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Keep in mind the book Handicapping Magic was published in the year 2000.

The game has evolved a bit, and public betting trends too since then.


-jp

.
good point

Its like E1 (FR1), was gold once, now is not...win rates still about the same.

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