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03-14-2024, 02:17 PM
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#16
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,944
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Topcat
The RPM software programs typically get ripped by many because they do not live up the hype of the advertising , “36% winners 59% ROI be a millionaire” that sort of thing. However it doesn’t mean they do not present some value, the biggest plus is they all use the same $1 file BRIS format which in my testing gave just about the same ROI as more expensive data from Handicappers Database.
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Please explain how you tested the RPM software with HDW data. I wasn't aware that you can obtain those files in comma-delimited format, and therefore you cannot conclude that the Bris data and HDW data provide "just about the same ROI".
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
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03-14-2024, 02:32 PM
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#17
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DJ M.Walk
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Compton, CA!
Posts: 2,074
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
Please explain how you tested the RPM software with HDW data. I wasn't aware that you can obtain those files in comma-delimited format, and therefore you cannot conclude that the Bris data and HDW data provide "just about the same ROI".
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The JCapper files are basically the same data structure as bris. The difference is the pace and speed numbers and Prime Power is replaced with PSR. If you change the jcp to drf they will work.
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03-15-2024, 02:44 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 418
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
Please explain how you tested the RPM software with HDW data. I wasn't aware that you can obtain those files in comma-delimited format, and therefore you cannot conclude that the Bris data and HDW data provide "just about the same ROI".
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headhawg,
First, I encourage everyone to do their own testing and to come their own fact based conclusions.
Secondly, as Speed Figure explains above, both BRIS and Handicappers Data Warehouse get their data from the same place, that is Equibase, it is not like one gets their data from Equibase and another from Timeform. The value comes from what the HDW programs can do with the data.
Third, I did not test HDW data in RPM programs, but tested the data or similar factors. One that did show a gap in favor of HDW was last race speed rating in BRIS vs. Cramer Speed rating, and you can argue that this isn't "apples to apples" as Cramer uses a different projection method in calculating track variant. While they correlated over 90% of the time, Cramer was a little better.
In over 10,000 races the BRIS best last race speed rating , if over 1 point of next horse, the loss was in my test 14% or $1.74 for every two dollars, HDW Cramer speed rating same criterion loss of 10% or $1.80. Both losers and this is one of the factors that would give an edge to HDW but this is one of the few that showed a difference, now as you get into PSR, projected speed ratings and different weighted pace calculations there is added value but those, IMHO is driven by the software partners of HDW and not necessarily the raw data.
__________________
TC
Last edited by Topcat; 03-15-2024 at 02:54 AM.
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03-15-2024, 07:25 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Topcat
headhawg,
First, I encourage everyone to do their own testing and to come their own fact based conclusions.
Secondly, as Speed Figure explains above, both BRIS and Handicappers Data Warehouse get their data from the same place, that is Equibase, it is not like one gets their data from Equibase and another from Timeform. The value comes from what the HDW programs can do with the data.
Third, I did not test HDW data in RPM programs, but tested the data or similar factors. One that did show a gap in favor of HDW was last race speed rating in BRIS vs. Cramer Speed rating, and you can argue that this isn't "apples to apples" as Cramer uses a different projection method in calculating track variant. While they correlated over 90% of the time, Cramer was a little better.
In over 10,000 races the BRIS best last race speed rating , if over 1 point of next horse, the loss was in my test 14% or $1.74 for every two dollars, HDW Cramer speed rating same criterion loss of 10% or $1.80. Both losers and this is one of the factors that would give an edge to HDW but this is one of the few that showed a difference, now as you get into PSR, projected speed ratings and different weighted pace calculations there is added value but those, IMHO is driven by the software partners of HDW and not necessarily the raw data.
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Let me say that .90 roi with Cramer speed is quite good in this day and age....
I'd like to see a full years result comparison..there are roughly 35,000 races a year
One question Topcat: Where did to get the Cramer Speed Figs
I have HTR and its Cramer Speed Fig is based on last 90 days only..
Its ROI for Rank 1 is .85 for 2023
thx
Last edited by Saratoga; 03-15-2024 at 07:39 AM.
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03-15-2024, 08:56 AM
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#20
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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You show me yours, I'll show you mine.
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In this sample below, I queried my database for the following:
Race filters
1-1-23 to 12-31-23
Dirt, fast tracks, 5f to 9f
Removed races with entries
Horse Filters
No FTS
Code:
174-rPSR WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 14,390 4,629 32.2 $1.69 2.24 1.05 1.09 2.39 $5.26 1.67 1.80
2nd 13,872 2,856 20.6 $1.66 1.43 1.03 1.07 1.57 $8.08 3.07 2.70
3rd 13,560 1,942 14.3 $1.56 1.00 0.98 1.01 1.15 $10.87 4.57 3.51
FH 19,061 1,813 9.5 $1.51 0.77 0.98 0.97 0.76 $15.85 7.36 4.81
RH 34,021 1,815 5.3 $1.32 0.40 0.89 0.85 0.47 $24.70 12.59 6.10
Total 94,904 13,055 13.8 $1.50 1.01 0.98
FH is Front Half of Field + 1 horse
RH is Rear Half (i.e. not front half)
PIV is Pool Impact Value
DV is Dollar Value -- $net / Avg $Net in the sample
BV is Betting Value -- How they bet each rank
There is also an older version of PSR.
In the HSH system it is referred to as "Cramer Power."
The results are similar.
Code:
2023.
175-rCPw WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 14,256 4,327 30.4 $1.67 2.11 1.05 1.08 2.28 $5.49 1.81 1.98
2nd 13,873 2,790 20.1 $1.63 1.40 1.01 1.05 1.56 $8.11 3.10 2.82
3rd 13,457 1,981 14.7 $1.58 1.03 1.00 1.02 1.15 $10.76 4.53 3.59
FH 18,939 1,896 10.0 $1.59 0.81 1.00 1.03 0.78 $15.92 7.13 4.82
RH 34,379 2,061 6.0 $1.29 0.45 0.90 0.83 0.52 $21.47 11.28 5.91
Total 94,904 13,055 13.8 $1.50 1.01 0.98
HSH also has a 3rd High-Level number, known simply as "The Rating."
Code:
2023.
168-rcRtg WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 15,709 4,687 29.8 $1.68 2.08 1.04 1.08 2.24 $5.62 1.85 2.02
2nd 14,253 2,800 19.6 $1.61 1.37 1.02 1.04 1.51 $8.21 3.23 2.88
3rd 13,510 1,888 14.0 $1.58 0.98 0.98 1.02 1.12 $11.30 4.70 3.65
FH 18,776 1,801 9.6 $1.53 0.78 0.99 0.99 0.76 $15.93 7.40 4.89
RH 32,656 1,879 5.8 $1.31 0.43 0.91 0.85 0.50 $22.77 11.88 6.01
Total 94,904 13,055 13.8 $1.50 1.01 0.98
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03-15-2024, 01:13 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 570
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Pretty impressive with those extra categories...
Here's a simple output I got ...
year 2023
Rank HTR Cramer's Figs
Lifetime starts >0
Dirt.... sprint /route
no turf or poly
What got me is your Win %...quite higher than mine
and that's a big difference
But in OP, that .90 seems a little off
Last edited by Saratoga; 03-15-2024 at 01:16 PM.
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03-15-2024, 04:30 PM
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#22
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga
Pretty impressive with those extra categories...
Here's a simple output I got ...
year 2023
Rank HTR Cramer's Figs
Lifetime starts >0
Dirt.... sprint /route
no turf or poly
What got me is your Win %...quite higher than mine
and that's a big difference
But in OP, that .90 seems a little off
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I don't understand how my PSRs could be producing such drastically different hit rates.
Also, 2023 was LOWER by almost 2% from the previous years. What I do is only slightly different and just should not make such a massive difference in the end result.
What I do that's different
I convert those numbers to a one-point equals one length number to produce something LIKE A SPEED RATING. It is, however, 100% the same starting number.
BTW, HSH also shows PAST PSR numbers from the horse's past races in the Pacelines. This should allow you to pluck out some past races and compare the numbers.
The example shows some other fields from the day of that race.
Sh# is PSR converted to a Sheet's like number on .
ES is the horse's ES Points.
RTG, FT, PSR, CPwr (older version of PSR) all on the day of THAT race.
Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 03-15-2024 at 04:35 PM.
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03-15-2024, 04:48 PM
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#23
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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Something else you might find interesting.
WINTER RACING is... DIFFERENT.
And it's not about weather because it is in warmer climes as well as colder.
I have some theories but they're all conjecture. (I also have a product in my store called What Wins in Winter.)
But the point is that the high level numbers are LESS PREDICTIVE in the winter months than the rest of the year.
Same data... but only drawn from Nov. 15 to Jan 21st.
Notice how the hit rate went down!
Logically, then the rest of the year should go up.
Code:
2023.
168-rcRtgWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 1,447 385 26.6 $1.65 2.05 0.99 1.06 2.11 $6.20 2.02 2.14
2nd 1,327 232 17.5 $1.47 1.34 0.99 0.95 1.39 $8.42 3.61 3.06
3rd 1,264 181 14.3 $1.64 1.10 1.05 1.06 1.07 $11.48 4.99 3.83
FH 2,167 225 10.4 $1.85 0.91 1.09 1.19 0.75 $17.86 7.55 5.02
RH 3,389 169 5.0 $1.17 0.41 0.87 0.75 0.45 $23.40 13.27 6.43
Total 9,594 1,192 12.4 $1.50 1.00 0.98
$NetR= 1.58 IVR= 5.00 PIVR= 1.25 PubChR= 3.00
2023.
174-rPSRWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 1,312 366 27.9 $1.51 2.14 0.96 0.97 2.29 $5.42 1.79 1.83
2nd 1,279 263 20.6 $1.77 1.58 1.10 1.14 1.46 $8.61 3.37 2.83
3rd 1,265 179 14.2 $1.55 1.08 0.97 1.00 1.14 $10.99 4.58 3.52
FH 2,164 222 10.3 $1.67 0.90 1.09 1.08 0.74 $16.27 7.63 4.91
RH 3,574 162 4.5 $1.28 0.37 0.87 0.83 0.41 $28.20 14.66 6.59
Total 9,594 1,192 12.4 $1.50 1.00 0.98
$NetR= 1.38 IVR= 5.78 PIVR= 1.26 PubChR= 3.60
2023.
175-rCPwWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 1,318 348 26.4 $1.63 2.03 0.97 1.05 2.13 $6.19 1.99 2.11
2nd 1,254 233 18.6 $1.51 1.43 0.99 0.97 1.48 $8.11 3.32 2.95
3rd 1,266 193 15.2 $1.61 1.17 1.09 1.04 1.10 $10.56 4.83 3.73
FH 2,151 224 10.4 $1.83 0.91 1.08 1.18 0.76 $17.59 7.43 4.94
RH 3,605 194 5.4 $1.21 0.44 0.90 0.78 0.47 $22.53 12.59 6.33
Total 9,594 1,192 12.4 $1.50 1.00 0.98
$NetR= 1.51 IVR= 4.61 PIVR= 1.21 PubChR= 3.00
FxNum Factor $NetR IVR PIVR PubChR Score
1 168 rcRtg 1.58 5.00 1.25 3.00 69.13
2 174 rPSR 1.38 5.78 1.26 3.60 64.32
3 175 rCPw 1.51 4.61 1.21 3.00 58.96
Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 03-15-2024 at 04:51 PM.
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03-15-2024, 04:55 PM
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#24
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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Here is the rest of the year (with winter removed).
These are the hit rates I am used to seeing.
Of course, there is no profit to be found.
In our HSH system, the primary use for the major factors like these is to predict what the odds on the horses should be.
Code:
2023.
168-rcRtgWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 17,082 5,186 30.4 $1.69 2.06 1.06 1.09 2.25 $5.58 1.83 2.01
2nd 15,482 3,100 20.0 $1.64 1.36 1.03 1.06 1.53 $8.19 3.18 2.87
3rd 14,689 2,050 14.0 $1.56 0.95 0.96 1.01 1.14 $11.19 4.61 3.61
FH 19,201 1,810 9.4 $1.46 0.76 0.96 0.94 0.77 $15.49 7.29 4.85
RH 34,693 2,109 6.1 $1.34 0.44 0.91 0.86 0.52 $22.12 11.22 5.88
Total 101,147 14,255 14.1 $1.50 1.01 0.98
$NetR= 1.26 IVR= 4.68 PIVR= 1.16 PubChR= 2.93
2023.
174-rPSRWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 15,691 5,155 32.9 $1.74 2.23 1.07 1.12 2.40 $5.28 1.66 1.80
2nd 15,113 3,125 20.7 $1.66 1.40 1.03 1.07 1.58 $8.03 3.03 2.68
3rd 14,701 2,125 14.5 $1.56 0.98 0.98 1.01 1.16 $10.81 4.51 3.50
FH 19,557 1,857 9.5 $1.50 0.76 0.96 0.97 0.77 $15.81 7.24 4.78
RH 36,085 1,993 5.5 $1.31 0.40 0.87 0.85 0.50 $23.73 11.82 5.97
Total 101,147 14,255 14.1 $1.50 1.01 0.98
$NetR= 1.33 IVR= 5.58 PIVR= 1.23 PubChR= 3.32
2023.
175-rCPwWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 15,486 4,818 31.1 $1.70 2.11 1.07 1.10 2.29 $5.47 1.79 1.98
2nd 15,125 3,086 20.4 $1.66 1.39 1.02 1.07 1.57 $8.15 3.07 2.81
3rd 14,609 2,167 14.8 $1.57 1.01 0.99 1.01 1.18 $10.56 4.43 3.55
FH 19,449 1,941 10.0 $1.57 0.80 0.98 1.01 0.80 $15.76 7.01 4.77
RH 36,478 2,243 6.1 $1.29 0.45 0.89 0.83 0.54 $20.97 10.72 5.79
Total 101,147 14,255 14.1 $1.50 1.01 0.98
$NetR= 1.32 IVR= 4.69 PIVR= 1.20 PubChR= 2.92
FxNum Factor $NetR IVR PIVR PubChR Score
1 174 rPSR 1.33 5.58 1.23 3.32 60.98
2 175 rCPw 1.32 4.69 1.20 2.92 52.60
3 168 rcRtg 1.26 4.68 1.16 2.93 48.36
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03-15-2024, 07:20 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 570
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Cramer Fig Rank 1 by Month 2023.....
It gets no where near your 30+
What ever your doing , it looks like your making it better than what it should
be.....or my Cramer fig is not yours
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03-15-2024, 08:55 PM
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#26
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga
Cramer Fig Rank 1 by Month 2023.....
It gets no where near your 30+
What ever your doing , it looks like your making it better than what it should
be.....or my Cramer fig is not yours
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I wish I could take credit but I simply can't.
Even the formulas for my conversions came from Jim Cramer.
The guy really is brilliant.
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03-15-2024, 11:53 PM
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#27
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,944
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Topcat
First, I encourage everyone to do their own testing and to come their own fact based conclusions.
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I definitely do my own testing mainly because I don't trust anybody else's methodology, save for guys like Jeff P. The raw data comes from Equibase but some data providers like HDW will make corrections when errors are found. There has been discussion in the past about some providers not bothering to make the corrections. HDW's reputation indicates that they make corrections as needed. In addition, some of the fields are calculated in some way, shape, or form, e.g. speed points, speed ratings, etc. As you mentioned in your reply to me, the methodologies would be different for each data provider or software vendor. And for the core handicapping factors I agree that there's probably not much difference between the data providers.
Be that as it may, in your first post you gave me the impression that you tested both Bris and HDW files on the RPM software because you made an ROI comparison between them. That is what prompted my post. And it also seems that the Jcapper (jcp) files are a good deal for $89/month; I believe that also includes results files which with Bris adds an additional $.25 per file. Of course if a handicapper is just a weekend warrior buying 10 total files for Saturday and Sunday races then of course the $1 Bris files are cheaper. So the phrase "just about the same ROI as more expensive data from Handicappers Database" is relative. (italics added)
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
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03-16-2024, 12:48 AM
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#28
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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headhawg,
FWIW, I believe TopCat was an HSH user years ago.
If I recall correctly, he is a very sharp fellow as well as a man of integrity.
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03-16-2024, 12:59 AM
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#29
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,944
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He might be, Dave. I don't know him. I was just questioning his post and asking for clarity. It was a little misleading, imo.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
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03-16-2024, 01:16 AM
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#30
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
He might be, Dave. I don't know him. I was just questioning his post and asking for clarity. It was a little misleading, imo.
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Brian, not trying to be in the middle of that. Just adding my 2 cents worth.
FWIW, I'd say the same of you when it comes to integrity.
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