Handicapping Method

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Cincy,

With all due respect, I would say that this is the absolute worst way to decide whether or not one should play a particular race or horse.

Value is not something that can be determined before knowing the final odds.

I realize that you will feel differently, and I am not saying that you cannot possibly succeed doing it this way. I am saying that anyone looking for advice on how to play should absolutely NOT take this approach.


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I wanted to revisit this to clear it up.What exactly do you think I am teaching somebody with this?Because I think what I am saying and what you are implying are 2 different things.

I am saying grade the races based on your opinion.What exactly are you saying?

I am saying let higher payoff brackets correspond to bankroll percentage bets.What are you saying?

If I sit down and grade races I am going to bet on an A B C D basis and have accompanying payoff ranges,how are you reaching the conclusion that what I am saying is the worst,most corrupt way of betting races?What I am suggesting is using your own opinion to evaluate the landscape of a day's bets.if you think that is some seriously deranged thinking,what are you thinking that is so above and beyond?I'm curious.I have read all the heavyweights and none had this much promise.Do you know how the pyramids were built and what is God's real name?

Bottomline.Are you suggesting that a player's own thinking is irrelevant to what he bets on any given day?

Because that is what you are implying in your critique.

Dave.You are creating your own mythology.Are you still human?!!I hope I won't have to buy a video to get an answer.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

What I am suggesting is using your own opinion to evaluate the landscape of a day's bets.if you think that is some seriously deranged thinking,what are you thinking that is so above and beyond?I'm curious.I have read all the heavyweights and none had this much promise.Do you know how the pyramids were built and what is God's real name?

Dave.You are creating your own mythology.Are you still human?!!I hope I won't have to buy a video to get an answer.

Deranged thinking? Where did Dave even begin to imply such nonsense?

Why not leave the hyperbole and the agenda aside and respond in kind. You guys have a difference of opinion...nothing more, nothing less. Why take it personal?

It's been pretty clear over the years that Dave has shared much without having to buy anything, so I don't really get your dig at the end there.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Deranged thinking? Where did Dave even begin to imply such nonsense?

Why not leave the hyperbole and the agenda aside and respond in kind. You guys have a difference of opinion...nothing more, nothing less. Why take it personal?

It's been pretty clear over the years that Dave has shared much without having to buy anything, so I don't really get your dig at the end there.

Pace what I was saying was so far removed from how Dave presented it I had to say something.Nothing more.And I'm not the first person to add on a little zip at the end.Beyond that you know I am not a poster to start stuff and continue it on ala Jerry Springer.I just feel sometimes I have to defend myself in the face of sacred cows and the powers that be.It's usually short and sweet but I will say my piece.The respect for the sight is intact.You should know that from me by now.I am not the internet opportunist.

[PaceAdvantage]

Dave certainly isn't a sacred cow. Just ask patrick...

[CincyHorseplayer]

HAHHAHAHAHAA!!!That's good.

Pace I'm not a problem for this place.It's important to me that is acknowledged.Outside of that I like to let er rip when the situation suits it!!Yee hawwww!!!I never knew I was an anti educator!!

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not sure I understand how this situation was suited for "letting her rip..."

How exactly were you "wronged?"

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'm not sure I understand how this situation was suited for "letting her rip..."

How exactly were you "wronged?"

"With all due respect, I would say that this is the absolute worst way to decide whether or not one should play a particular race or horse."

Pretty unambiguous.Unless you've been told worst.If so post it.

I didn't realize when you laugh,I can't laugh with you.Is silence my only option here?I'd like to believe I can speak without the god damn hammer being dropped.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

"With all due respect, I would say that this is the absolute worst way to decide whether or not one should play a particular race or horse."

Pretty unambiguous.Unless you've been told worst.If so post it.

I didn't realize when you laugh,I can't laugh with you.Is silence my only option here?I'd like to believe I can speak without the god damn hammer being dropped.

See, I keep seeing this hyperbole everywhere I go around here.

Hammer being dropped? What are you talking about? Nobody dropped a hammer on you.

I'm just asking how you were wronged. The way I see it, he respectfully and completely disagreed with you...but PM me the moment he tries to sell you a video, and I will be the first to apologize to you publicly in this thread.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

See, I keep seeing this hyperbole everywhere I go around here.

Hammer being dropped? What are you talking about? Nobody dropped a hammer on you.

I'm just asking how you were wronged. The way I see it, he respectfully and completely disagreed with you...but PM me the moment he tries to sell you a video, and I will be the first to apologize to you publicly in this thread.

You did see the words in quotations right?

What do you think about that?

All I did was answer that and put some colorful BS in at the end.That's OK isn't it?I did it and it was pretty fuggin funny.So be it.If Dave isn't a sacred cow why are you wastin so much effort on this?

I just pointed out his BS.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I just pointed out his BS.

BS? What BS?

This exchange is getting weirder by the minute.

I get it. You don't like Dave...I could sense that from your first reply...really wouldn't have mattered how Dave worded his reply to you...you were ready to rumble from the word go because you don't like him.

Why not just state that so we can get away from the real BS and get down to brass tacks.

I like to rumble every now and then as well, in case you hadn't noticed.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

BS? What BS?

This exchange is getting weirder by the minute.

I get it. You don't like Dave...I could sense that from your first reply...really wouldn't have mattered how Dave worded his reply to you...you were ready to rumble from the word go because you don't like him.

Why not just state that so we can get away from the real BS and get down to brass tacks.

I like to rumble every now and then as well, in case you hadn't noticed.

Jesus H.I am not allowed to be opinionated on here am I?This is getting ridiculous.I don't dislike Dave but I can criticize him the same as he does me.You are making this out to be way more than it is.This has gotten a life of it's own because you are telling me that I'm all wrong.I have no opinion.Hard to sit idly by when being told that.Beyond our exchange did you even read what I posted?Does that make sense?Sounds like you have your mind made up already.I can't beat an already decided opinion.I was talking handicapping,now I'm defending myself from offtopic criticism.You don't think I'm entitled to have my say on a conversation you were never a part of.That my friend is BS.

But I know I can't win.So do what you do.It's your place.Throw me in the scrap pile,us hilljacks ain't allowed to say sheet against the big boys...............

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Throw me in the scrap pile,us hilljacks ain't allowed to say sheet against the big boys...............

First off, I'm part of every conversation, like it or not.

Second, the above quote from you pretty much sums it up...you have this "them against me" mentality...big boys...whatever baloney you want to call it...

The guy just disagreed with your opinion, and all of sudden you're throwing videos in his face. That's what I had a problem with...as if someone isn't allowed to disagree with you...maybe you're the big boy...

But you're right about one thing...this sure is foolish...glad you see that.

You could easily win if you could just explain to me how you were wronged. That's all I asked. It was a simple question.

[Dave Schwartz]

Cincy,

No need to get angry. I simply do not like your approach to the game.

Here is why.

Value cannot be found simply by you falling in love with a horse. That is the stuff that 1980's books were made of. Those days are gone.

That is akin to saying that the handicapper is playing in a vacuum. He isn't.

If one was to take your approach, value would be not only dependent upon finding a horse that you love but that the public turns out (some hours later) do not like very much.

In my opinion - and it is just my opinion - finding value today is much more difficult. One must assess each race completely. That does not mean you cannot do it with spot plays. Fine, if you have taken the time to research an approach and proven (to yourself) that it works. Windoor has been talking of this lately.

However, a much more powerful approach (again, in my opinion) is to have an understanding of every horse in the race. Now, this does not take massive amounts of work. In fact, the method(s) take far less work than what you are presumably doing.

For example, suppose I decide to use a simple "fuzzy handicapping" technique. That is, suppose I use (in your terminology) a "grading" technique where I grade each horse on a basis of 1-5:


5=Excellent
4=Good
3=Average
2=Fair
1=Poor

Continuing with this thinking, suppose I "grade" them in each of (say) 5 categories:




Now, imagine we add a multiplier above each column that reflects how we feel about each factor on a scale of 1-100, then we simply multiply each horse's "grade" x the weight for that factor:



Finally, we sum the scores across for each horse and then sum the totals down for each horse and create a probability for each horse.



Suddenly, we have an odds line!




more to come...

[Dave Schwartz]

Of course, this race worked out a little simplistic. Let's shift the ratings around to create a couple of stand-outs.

BTW, at the start of the handicapping, every horse begins as "average" and we then change the horses up or down to suit our handicapping:



Notice that not every category has to have an "excellent."

Also notice that if the field were really this average all the way through that there are 7 horses and "fair odds" are 6/1.




Now we have a more realistic looking race.

Let's take that top horse and make him a world beater:



Okay, so not to world-beater like if he has to be 3/1 to be even. Not a problem. We just need to exaggerate the weights a little.



What I have done here is added an intermediate column where each horse's score is raised to a power of "2.00." This "exaggerates" the differences between the horses.

more to come...

[hencicleva]

Dave, how do you give a grade for pace in your fuzzy approach. Is it is as simple as ranking best early speed or some kind of Randy Giles type estimate of which horse has the best running style fit for the race?