Looking Back

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

-in today's world as tough as it is to win its even tougher to bet your money into blind pools unless you are one of the very few that have direct access into them.

The way the game is played today...the win-pools are just as "blind" as the other pools.

[thaskalos]

I, personally, remain unconvinced that the win-bettors are more "successful" in this game than the exotics bettors are. IMO...the game would be dead and buried if the extensive exotics menu wasn't introduced by the tracks. The only advantage that I can see for the exotics bettor is that he is forced to be more disciplined in his wagering...because it's harder to find a win-bet in a race than it is to find some sort of an exotic wager.

In my own play...I like to have as many wagering options as possible, due to the complexity of this game. I would have given up the game LONG ago if I had only win-bets available to me.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I, personally, remain unconvinced that the win-bettors are more "successful" in this game than the exotics bettors are. IMO...the game would be dead and buried if the extensive exotics menu wasn't introduced by the tracks. The only advantage that I can see for the exotics bettor is that he is forced to be more disciplined in his wagering...because it's harder to find a win-bet in a race than it is to find some sort of an exotic wager.

In my own play...I like to have as many wagering options as possible, due to the complexity of this game. I would have given up the game LONG ago if I had only win-bets available to me.

I love your line about having as many wagering options available to you. that says it all !!!
as you can pick and choose the best bet for the right spot. makes good sense.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I, personally, remain unconvinced that the win-bettors are more "successful" in this game than the exotics bettors are. IMO...the game would be dead and buried if the extensive exotics menu wasn't introduced by the tracks. The only advantage that I can see for the exotics bettor is that he is forced to be more disciplined in his wagering...because it's harder to find a win-bet in a race than it is to find some sort of an exotic wager.

In my own play...I like to have as many wagering options as possible, due to the complexity of this game. I would have given up the game LONG ago if I had only win-bets available to me.

I messed-up here. I should have written: "The only advantage that I can see for the win-bettor..."

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Big Russ

I remember being fresh out of college, and having devoured "Picking Winners", thinking that by the time I reach the age of 25, I'd be wagering on horses for living. Yeah...that didn't quite work out.

Fast forward 3+ decades, and while I still have a good day job, I'm on year 3 of doing okay in my field of passion. I rarely post, and I don't want sound like I'm bragging. I just want to say that one can improve their game. For me it was hard work and strong record keeping. It's still hard work, but it's not "work" to me.

I'm pretty much the most boring person at the track. I'm extremely selective. Win bet almost exclusively. You will not know if I won or lost if you see me in person when I'm wagering. There is no "thrill" derived from winning, only satisfaction, and that is internalized. Even with success becoming repetitious, I still start each day "worrying" about losing my edge. I think it's my way of telling myself to not become complacent.

Just in case anyone cares, today was a typical Saturday for me. I reviewed race types for most USA tracks (T-bred, most USA + Woodbine). I found 31 races I wanted to handicap. Of those 31, I made 10 win bets. I'll be up early to start again tomorrow.

Congratulations on reaching the level you have. I think that is pretty much the goal for most that enjoy this game to be able to make money at a game we enjoy so much. Sounds like you are there or at least seem to be knocking on the door. Keep up the good work.

My question for you is does price come into play for you? In other words on the 10 win bets you selected, do you bet them and go on with your day, you bet them conditionally(at say 2-1 or higher or with a strike price on each one), or bet them regardless of price.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Congratulations on reaching the level you have. I think that is pretty much the goal for most that enjoy this game to be able to make money at a game we enjoy so much. Sounds like you are there or at least seem to be knocking on the door. Keep up the good work.

My question for you is does price come into play for you? In other words on the 10 win bets you selected, do you bet them and go on with your day, you bet them conditionally(at say 2-1 or higher or with a strike price on each one), or bet them regardless of price.

This has always been my question: If I am a "strictly win bettor" what pay-out level do I need to have to make money at say a 35% hit rate...? Because of the rake, I imagine that 4-1 is the minimum to break even over the long haul...so then what would I be expected to be making if I bet $100 per bet over the long haul...?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Tom

10 win bets?
Around here, I call that September.

And I call it two hours.




PS: Had to share this on Facebook. Good post.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

This has always been my question: If I am a "strictly win bettor" what pay-out level do I need to have to make money at say a 35% hit rate...? Because of the rake, I imagine that 4-1 is the minimum to break even over the long haul...so then what would I be expected to be making if I bet $100 per bet over the long haul...?

Break-even for a 33% hit rate is 2-1 on average. If you can get 35% winners at 4-1 average odds...then your biggest problem will be what to do with all your winnings. And you only need to start with $20 win-bets...because nature will take its course in due time.

No one starts with $100 win-bets...or the $200 and $400 bets that you mentioned in another thread. We all start by betting small, and look to build up our bankrolls over time. That's the prudent thing to do in a volatile gambling game such as this. If we are as good as we think we are...then the money will come soon enough. The fact that the money DOESN'T come doesn't mean that we are betting "too small". It means that we have overestimated our abilities as horseplayers...and we have no business "betting big" in the first place.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

This has always been my question: If I am a "strictly win bettor" what pay-out level do I need to have to make money at say a 35% hit rate...? Because of the rake, I imagine that 4-1 is the minimum to break even over the long haul...so then what would I be expected to be making if I bet $100 per bet over the long haul...?

One reason I asked the question is that I would be even more impressed if OP is succeeding without a strike price. In my mind I just don't see how that is possible. In race after race I generally find the value on the other end of the tote board(over 6-1 final odds). I also see no way to know in advance what a horse is going to pay. Just yesterday as the horses are getting ready to load the gate Kurt Hoover is talking about no horse will pay less than double digits, 3 minutes later Just Kidding crosses the line first at 5/2. This is on a Saturday with a horse who was 8-1 morning line.

To your question the break even calculation on a horse you bet is simply based off the odds your are going to get. Just google horse racing odds percentage table and you will find a chart of what percentage your horse would have to win at for each given odds to break even. So at 35% hit rate you typically would look for 9/5(the closest matching odds) as a break even point. But if your game is about identifying winners (my game is about assessing each horses chance of winning), I would just track these "winners" based off of their final odds. If you have a sample of 300 horses over the last year you have identified as key plays or winners or whatever you want to call them, they may as a whole win at 35%, but that doesn't mean anything. You have to track them. Maybe the ones 8/5 or less final odds are negative roi, or maybe the ones 4-1 or less are negative roi, or maybe the ones 25-1 + are negative roi. No law says that any part of your sample will show a profit. That is why you have to keep records. Also, remember the past doesn't always equal the future so you have to tread steadily and within the confines of your bankroll.

This is also why i believe every horse player that is struggling, should line races. You get so conditoned into making negative expectation plays, you lose your way. Also do not see the point of limiting yourself to one horse a race in a field of 10. Price horses win all the time and if they are paying far more than they should, why would you not want to bet them. Not advising you play a 50-1 at 90-1, but 8-1's at 20-1 or 6-1 at 15-1 or 3-1 at 8-1 are all part of my arsenal. I tend to find i am okay up to to about 15-1 my line, horses I make 20-1+ have been a struggle (however if a couple win at 50-1 that can change).

One final note when trying to project, assuming you know what you are doing, I think you will find that your hit rates will be somewhere between your estimates and the crowds estimate. So if I make a horse 3-1(25% chance) and the crowd makes him 8-1 (about a 9% chance .11/1.2) I assume that my hit rate will be about an average of the 2. So in this instance even though i gave the horse a 25% chance of winning, he probably has about a 17% chance winning at best-which would still make it a very nice value play. So if you are lining races, and you are monitoring your performance you want to see how you stack up against the 17% projection, not the 25% projection, which is fantasy land.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

One final note when trying to project, assuming you know what you are doing, I think you will find that your hit rates will be somewhere between your estimates and the crowds estimate. So if I make a horse 3-1(25% chance) and the crowd makes him 8-1 (about a 9% chance .11/1.2) I assume that my hit rate will be about an average of the 2. So in this instance even though i gave the horse a 25% chance of winning, he probably has about a 17% chance winning at best-which would still make it a very nice value play. So if you are lining races, and you are monitoring your performance you want to see how you stack up against the 17% projection, not the 25% projection, which is fantasy land.

I call this "Tote Smoothing." It used to be a significant part of my strategy, but since I have been projecting the odds for over 3 years the tote board has become completely unnecessary for me.

The concept of smoothing was not my own but came from Bill Benter. I just developed my own version of it very similar to what you do above.

The big difference between yours and mine (and Benter's as well) is that the amount of the adjustment shifts with the odds on the horse. In other words, a 2/1 horse is much more likely to run close to those odds than a 20/1 horse.

Another way to say that is: "The lower the odds, the greater the likelihood that the horse's probability is closer to the public's opinion."

Still another way would be: "The higher the odds, the more likely the public is wrong."


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Big Russ

I remember being fresh out of college, and having devoured "Picking Winners", thinking that by the time I reach the age of 25, I'd be wagering on horses for living. Yeah...that didn't quite work out.

Fast forward 3+ decades, and while I still have a good day job, I'm on year 3 of doing okay in my field of passion. I rarely post, and I don't want sound like I'm bragging. I just want to say that one can improve their game. For me it was hard work and strong record keeping. It's still hard work, but it's not "work" to me.

I'm pretty much the most boring person at the track. I'm extremely selective. Win bet almost exclusively. You will not know if I won or lost if you see me in person when I'm wagering. There is no "thrill" derived from winning, only satisfaction, and that is internalized. Even with success becoming repetitious, I still start each day "worrying" about losing my edge. I think it's my way of telling myself to not become complacent.

Just in case anyone cares, today was a typical Saturday for me. I reviewed race types for most USA tracks (T-bred, most USA + Woodbine). I found 31 races I wanted to handicap. Of those 31, I made 10 win bets. I'll be up early to start again tomorrow.

Good to hear Big Russ



I started trying to beat the horses at about the age of twelve. The goal back then was to reduce the likelihood that my father would lose all of his spending money.
Basic DRF 'running lines' handicapping, and basic paddock/parade/warm-up physicality handicapping (not any kind of fairy tale 'prodigy').

Into my teens, I had little time for the game. Occasionally got together with the old man for a triple-crown-series race.

At the age of 23 I became physically disabled. Horseplaying was attractive, because in spite of the extreme difficulty(and steep learning curve), the actual barriers to entry were relatively low, compared to what I was facing with other entrepreneurial pursuits.

Horseplaying became a sort of incentivized 'medium' as a part of a bigger undertaking of a self-taught education. My dispositional, and situational attributes, fueled advancement along this narrow interest-path, that could reasonably be diagnosed as some sort of high-functioning disorder or syndrome.

Today, I have yet to beat the game.
Although I have above average insight into horseplaying, I can't mathematically project significant profit on a consistent basis. I've had some hot streaks and some bad streaks. The Kelly numbers don't jump off the page for me right now.

I do not currently play. Nearly forty, and I am re-starting my life. I just received a modest college scholarship, and in a couple/few years will get the piece of paper, and earn a modest living. Most of my current time goes to learning and physical therapy. Horseplaying has gotten me through some tough times, and indirectly helped me to this point in life. Remains a fascinating challenge.

Hopefully a few hot streaks ahead in this game.

[FakeNameChanged]

Nice post Robert, Good luck with your education.

[Big Russ]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Congratulations on reaching the level you have. I think that is pretty much the goal for most that enjoy this game to be able to make money at a game we enjoy so much. Sounds like you are there or at least seem to be knocking on the door. Keep up the good work.

My question for you is does price come into play for you? In other words on the 10 win bets you selected, do you bet them and go on with your day, you bet them conditionally(at say 2-1 or higher or with a strike price on each one), or bet them regardless of price.

I do my best to play only when I perceive value, but that part is tough. Was 1/5 on Unique Bella yesterday fair value? Maybe. That's a 20% profit. I've used some conditional betting tools, but it's not my preference, and it might be that I have not evolved to that level of automation. I can say that things got much better for me once I improved my strike rate significantly. Part of that is shorter fields, part is record keeping and review, and some is just fitting my play style to my personality. I prefer short losing streaks, and I've structured my game to match my psyche. I prefer to cover a lot of tracks, but not to spend time structuring vertical and horizontal plays. Not that there is anything wrong with approaching the game from that angle. It's just not for me, at least for now. My brain is old. I prefer things more simple.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Enjoyed your posts Russ. For me right now I simply can't imagine this game being more than a supplemental source of income and I am good with that at the moment. Without getting into great detail about what and why, I am paying the equivalent of 2 mortgages monthly and that won't end for another 3 years. I'm basically financially paralyzed. I know what type of bank I would have to put out and the % comfort zone I would have to be in to be able to make a go of it. I wouldn't want to put into play more than 5% of my bankroll per day. And like you I make about 10 plays per day. And I wager on 3 fronts. The money for each has to be significant enough to do some positive damage on days you are rolling. But it cannot be an extremely high % of bank for when you lose. Both are realities as we all know. Plus as Thask has mentioned occasionally you have to have the bills paid for x period to where you are unaffected by swings. I am NOT in a position financially to do any of this! So I don't try and remain content with my modest winnings.

As far as bets go when I was nearly a pure exotics bettor I would talk myself into many horses I now would not touch. As you have said better records and self tracking stats directly have led me to make better decisions. My average mutuel has risen 30% in the last 3 years from a 10 year steady mutuel. And the payoffs adjust upwards as well on most exotic bets. One of my biggest frustrations is that turf is a lot more friendly on the win payoff but the exotics can be a nightmare. Whereas the opposite is true on dirt for me. I find that my strike rate rarely fluctuates from 16 year norms. Mainly because I refuse to accept lower odds horses in an attempt to boost it. I have become fairly good at pick 3-4 races. Hit some solid trifectas. I should utilize the superfecta at lower denominations more. Win bets have remained fairly solid, even at and sometimes especially at smaller tracks. Field size and dirt have been real killers to them though. I think I have passed more races at Belmont this year than I have the 2 prior years.

Anyway I deliberately left out much of the statistics. I like talking turkey about just playing this game and want to keep it in that mode.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Looking back....

Got dragged to the races by my uncles who were "baby sitting" me, and really didn't get into it until the age of 21. I used to go more for the social aspect hanging with my family and friends. I never got too serious with wagering until I was about two years out of undergrad and had more disposable income.

I used to be a big win bettor, but now have gravitated towards the pick n bets. I figure in my 12 years of serious wagering, I might have had only one or two winning years, but nothing to write home about. I view it simply as entertainment, but do have the occasional day that makes it worth it. I do find that I am getting better as a bettor, coming close to life changing scores will still managing some very good days in between.

That being said, now that I am around it every single day of the work week, I really don't play as much as I used to. I don't like betting online at all, and I am not making the commute to Belmont after doing it all week. Havent place a bet since closing weekend at Monmouth, with my next planned "binge" at the Borgata for BC weekend. Already got my seats reserved at the bar