Donald Trump

[ArlJim78]

Nate Silver tweet from yesterday

Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.

In November everyone will be wondering "how did we miss this, how did we so badly misjudge Trumps popularity.
I already know the answer, its because people rely on corrupted streams of news and data, they listen too much to major media, thinking it accurately defines the mood of the country.
Trump/Pence will sail to a comfortable victory and in the process completely reshape the US political landscape.

[_______]

Starting with the first polls plus forecast that Trump had only a 20% chance of winning the election (now 32%), Silver has been careful to draw a clear picture of what those numbers actually mean.

Even with the initial forecast of an 80% chance of a Clinton victory, he was noting that among the Clinton victory scenarios were elections that would be sweat inducing for her and her supporters.

Polls plus takes into consideration polls (obviously), the state of the economy, and the sitting presidents popularity. In a year like this without an incumbent the popularity of the president isn't weighted as heavily.

It doesn't take into consideration factors like fundraising, organization, and data driven GOTV all of which will benefit Clinton.

All of the above are the kind of diesel engine slow but powerful build of momentum toward November factors that I think make a Trump presidency less likely. I'm sure you will see plenty of good and bad days for both campaigns but the lack of a strong organization makes bad more likely for Trump than Clinton.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by _______

Polls plus takes into consideration polls (obviously), the state of the economy, and the sitting presidents popularity. In a year like this without an incumbent the popularity of the president isn't weighted as heavily.

How about the unpopularity of the president, as in 2008? Any Democrat, even Bernie Sanders, could have won that one against any Republican.

[_______]

Originally Posted by Clocker

How about the unpopularity of the president, as in 2008? Any Democrat, even Bernie Sanders, could have won that one against any Republican.

2008 was a perfect storm for Republican's. Don't forget what the economy looked like.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by _______

2008 was a perfect storm for Republican's. Don't forget what the economy looked like.

And it was all Bush's fault.

[_______]

Originally Posted by Clocker

And it was all Bush's fault.

He would have been unpopular regardless as at that point war fever had cooled to war weariness. But you're right. Even though the President has very little impact on the overall economy, they get all the blame and all the credit for the business cycle.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by _______

He would have been unpopular regardless as at that point war fever had cooled to war weariness. But you're right. Even though the President has very little impact on the overall economy, they get all the blame and all the credit for the business cycle.

It wasn't blame back then, it was raw hatred on the left. Bush was stupid and Cheney was evil, and they were the cause of everything wrong in the world.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Bush was stupid and Cheney was evil...

So far so good.

[Clocker]

Michael Moore: 5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michae..._11156794.html

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Michael Moore: 5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win

...

"Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now."

Yeah, sure. Let's see. You've been milking this prediction for media attention. A victory is good for at least one more documentary. Said victory is even more media attention as one of the correct predictors, the "I told ya so" I'm a political genius media attention, and of course, the docu media attention.

But you want Hillary to win because.... why, exactly?

Give me a break.

[highnote]

I agree with Trump that Bernie Sanders got snubbed by Clinton when she chose Kaine as her running mate. Sanders, at the very least, should have been her running mate.

It would be great to see a contested election where Sanders wins the nomination.

Not sure if that can happen now, though.

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by Clocker

It wasn't blame back then, it was raw hatred on the left. Bush was stupid and Cheney was evil, and they were the cause of everything wrong in the world.

And Trump is evil and stupid. You finally get it.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by mostpost

And Trump is evil and stupid. You finally get it.

Get what? That people who claim that Trump is the lesser of two evils might be right?

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Yeah, sure. Let's see. You've been milking this prediction for media attention. A victory is good for at least one more documentary.

But he needs the money!

We want to - we need to - hope for the best because, frankly, life is already a shit show and it’s hard enough struggling to get by from paycheck to paycheck.

Think of how much it must cost to put food on the table at the Moore Mansion.

[OntheRail]

Originally Posted by mostpost

And Trump is evil and stupid. You finally get it.

Said the Clinton Cankle....