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02-19-2021, 08:38 AM
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#166
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 163
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The hard hitting horse hits the track yet again at the highest levels of racing, as he has through his 2yo, 3yo , 4yo and now as a 5 yo.
Set to go in the 20mm Saudi Cup.
Purse money is paid through 5th place, and this guy has cashed a check in every one of his 16 starts spanning 4 years.
Mustn't he be regarded as one of the games top recent performers considering he has not been sent to stud, and he is not a gelding.
Hail Hail, or Hell no?
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02-19-2021, 10:41 AM
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#167
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,823
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhenry81
The hard hitting horse hits the track yet again at the highest levels of racing, as he has through his 2yo, 3yo , 4yo and now as a 5 yo.
Set to go in the 20mm Saudi Cup.
Purse money is paid through 5th place, and this guy has cashed a check in every one of his 16 starts spanning 4 years.
Mustn't he be regarded as one of the games top recent performers considering he has not been sent to stud, and he is not a gelding.
Hail Hail, or Hell no?
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He won one race last year. Since the Wood Memorial in April 2019 he's 1 for 11. How does that make him one of the top performers in racing?
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02-19-2021, 11:19 AM
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#168
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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Ironically, I give him a better chance in this race than some of the others he was heavily bet in.
Charlatan has high quality sprint speed. Baffert likes to send his speed horses even when there are other quality speeds in the race. He tries to seize control and discourage the others.
Knicks Go is doing all his winning on the lead and has never demonstrated he can sit off the lead and finish, especially going 9F.
I can't see how this pace can be slow. It's the degree of fast that's the question mark. I think that depends more on what Baffert wants to do with Charlatan. Personally, I think Charlatan is the faster horse, but I think Knicks Go is almost a lock to go hard for the lead. My guess is that both will send but if Knicks Go is hell bent on the lead, Charlatan will stalk and try to out finish him like he did when the faster Nashville outran him going short rather than committing suicide.
I think both horses would probably be better off if this was 8F rather than 9F because at 9F with fast pace or a tiring track, someone could pick them both up. If someone does, the best "known" quality is obviously Tacitus.
Could it finally happen?
There are so many unknown qualities in the race, it's hard to tell which of them may finish strongly if the pace gets fast or the track is tiring. It could even be one of the turfers. I think a lot will depend on how the track is playing that day.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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02-20-2021, 11:25 AM
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#169
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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This would be the type of race he wins and goes down as immortal 8 figure earner.
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02-20-2021, 11:40 AM
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#170
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,962
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
This would be the type of race he wins and goes down as immortal 8 figure earner.
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Good one. Pretty much any horse that wins this "Da Cup" meets that criteria, with a $20M purse up for grabs
Tacitus is the second leading earner in the race, behind the dog from Japan, both with M/Ls of 15-1.
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02-20-2021, 01:07 PM
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#171
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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I thought Charlatan ran a huge race. To outrun a quality speed like Knicks Go, repulse a very strong bid, put him away, and then drop to what appeared to be slightly worse going on the inside through the stretch to only get caught late was pretty impressive for a horse making only his 5th start. The best is probably ahead for him in these 8f/9f middle distance races.
Knicks Go may have been disadvantaged a bit running inside, but running into another quality speed that was faster was problematical since he’s never won except on the lead.
The winner wasn’t easy to come up with (at least for me), but he looked absolutely tremendous on the track and ran to his looks rallying in what appeared to be the best paths away from the rail through the stretch.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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02-20-2021, 04:25 PM
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#172
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Sorry guys. Tacitus is still Tacitus.
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02-20-2021, 04:41 PM
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#173
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Sorry guys. Tacitus is still Tacitus.
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Even I was disappointed with his effort today. Personally, I think they'd be better off sitting further off the pace and making a single run with him. If you use him at all that's when he tends to hang and weaken late. Today he was kind of close to those faster and better horses while inside. With only 4 dirt races it's hard to tell exactly how the track was playing, but if you put a gun to my head I'd rather have been outside.
With the right trip maybe he have done a little running late and picked up 3rd or 4th given that Charlatan put Knicks Go away, but he was empty late.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 02-20-2021 at 04:43 PM.
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02-20-2021, 05:50 PM
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#174
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Even I was disappointed with his effort today. Personally, I think they'd be better off sitting further off the pace and making a single run with him. If you use him at all that's when he tends to hang and weaken late. Today he was kind of close to those faster and better horses while inside. With only 4 dirt races it's hard to tell exactly how the track was playing, but if you put a gun to my head I'd rather have been outside.
With the right trip maybe he have done a little running late and picked up 3rd or 4th given that Charlatan put Knicks Go away, but he was empty late.
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He made 500k, love to own him.
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02-21-2021, 09:32 AM
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#175
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
He made 500k, love to own him.
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He's a good horse.
He's a victim of the hype he received from some people when he was a 3yo.
If he was my horse, I'd take him back, make one late run, and hope the race fell apart. It's either that or run in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races.
If you use him to get position up close or make a strong move trying to win against the best horses in the world he's going to hang or tire. You aren't going win many races taking a horse way back and making one run. You need for the race to collapse otherwise you'll just clunk up for piece. But if you are going to run a horse over his head and put him in the middle of the battle you'll get less.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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02-21-2021, 09:57 AM
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#176
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 163
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Disappointing finish position 7th, even by his standards. But he did make $500k to total nearly $4m to date.
On to Dubai to collect another check!
My namesake John Henry earned $6.5m with 39 wins!
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02-21-2021, 12:57 PM
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#177
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Looked like a great event.
from a betting standpoint, i get a touch of healthy apprehension, every time a Baffert or a Cox or a Gosden or everyone else enters a new environment, to where I want an opinion, and a healthy margin of safety should training protocols be abruptly different.
It's one thing to see the same cast of characters take their show to the Breeders cup or local California Graded Stakes, and you watch a bunch of the races leading up to the major stakes and get a feel for whether horses are continuing to run lifetime best performances or not, -and a somewhat more apprehensive thing (at least in my twisted mind) to go to a new atmosphere of power dynamics.
However healthy any gambling apprehension may be, it's probably unfounded. It's probably safe to assume that the event takes precedent, and that the star connections and horses are fully invited to perform at their very best.
I believe that was what we were privy to.
The real fun was whether Charlatan would be able to withstand the challenge of the mighty Knicks Go.
I think we got to see a great duel there. We can quibble that Knicks Go should really have been 'quarter-horsed' a bit more, and ridden a bit more aggressively in terms of taking Charlatan out of his game. Also, while it wasn't a track or path bias to the extent of maybe the recent Aqueduct track last week, where some lucky schmuck played various s ticket combinations and is now TF-outta-NY and currently working on his tan and massage game, there is some debate as whether Charlatan had a slightly better path.
boiled down to the essence - we got to see the two stars battle, and on that day, Charlatan and Baffert proved best.
We got to see a great job by Gosden to prepare, and stick-work aside,- Egan did a fine job placing the willing winner Mishriff in striking position and excellent timing, as Charlatan still had to be run down to be defeated.
Didn't get to see the whole card, or of course partake in any of the race day events or pageantry this year, yet the feature was certainly a Grade 1 caliber event.
Up to the race, I think the Pegasus had actually been debated as a better race by many, but this was a far better race and event. Pegasus was great in the part of the post bias, and being able to key Independence Hall from post 3 at a great value margin, but the race itself was boring compared to the Saudi Cup.
(And I have great respect for the Pegasus Day series and all who put on that fine event).
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-21-2021 at 01:03 PM.
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02-21-2021, 04:51 PM
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#178
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,823
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
He made 500k, love to own him.
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What you should love are the Saudis with $20 million to throw around on a horse race.
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02-21-2021, 05:40 PM
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#179
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,054
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Tacitus moving on to the Dubai World Cup for some reason despite Mott's forlorn comments about his performance (high strung in the paddock, faded badly, not what he wanted to see).
I wonder if Juddmonte is looking to unload the horse. Not sure if he still operates out of Dubai anymore but in previous years South African trainer Michael DeKock made a career out of rejuvenating castoffs from the major international racing operations.
Personally, I'll settle for them just selling Tacitus's blinkers...
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02-21-2021, 05:42 PM
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#180
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
He made 500k, love to own him.
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On one level...and a BIG level LOL...I agree with you 100%.
But I'll relate a story.
When I dabbled in partnership ownership we had a really nice filly that showed a lot of talent on the turf, we got her after she won a 1st level allowance and then she won again for us at more or less the same level (I think it was a SA or N2X).
Then for reasons both intentional and unintentional she never won again, but always collected a check. She was generally placed above her head (not always intentional) and had a short span of a nagging injury. But she paid for herself and then some. Sold at auction for a decent sum.
Within roughly the same timespan we had a hardknocker who won for us at $10K, $12.5, and then $20k in the span of 5 races.
I know which horse was good for my wallet but also which one was good for my heart.
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