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Old 09-27-2015, 05:03 PM   #316
ReplayRandall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Closed out my October M3 today...here is the final box score including commissions:

Code:
Date	Time		Trade Description						Fees	Comm	Amount
8/31/15	09:53:59	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 OCT 15 1180/1130/1080 PUT @8.10 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,430.00
	09:54:11	BOT +3 IWM 100 OCT 15 114 CALL @4.42 MIAX			-0.10	-12.24	-1,326.00
9/25/15	15:45:34	SOLD -3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 OCT 15 1180/1130/1080 PUT @15.64 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	4,692.00
	15:45:45	SOLD -3 IWM 100 OCT 15 114 CALL @1.18 BOX			-0.11	-12.24	354.00
											-------------------------
													+1,226.53
PaceAdvantage M3 Trading Tour 2015
_______________________________
January........+755.51
February.......-359.98
March..........+239.98
April............+795.25
May.............+1,201.32
June............+337.73
July.............+1,458.44
August.........+441.16
September...+1,226.53
-----------------------------
TotalYTD......+6,095.94
If you don't mind sharing your info, what is your average risk exposure per month?
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Old 09-27-2015, 05:31 PM   #317
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I am trading currently with a $1,500 stop. However, in the event of some black swan where the market drops 1000 points, I could theoretically lose about $4,000 max on average...but even with a 1000 point drop (unless it occurred near the end of the trade's life), I would likely not be down that much.

On average though, my stop each month is $1,500 and my target profit is also $1,500. I've yet to hit my target profit (although I came very close one month), but I've also yet to be stopped out (although, if you've read this thread, you'll know I would have likely been stopped out during the big drop at the end of August, but technical difficulties and my own stupidity plus some dumb luck allowed me to escape that fate).
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Old 09-27-2015, 06:00 PM   #318
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I am trading currently with a $1,500 stop. However, in the event of some black swan where the market drops 1000 points, I could theoretically lose about $4,000 max on average...but even with a 1000 point drop (unless it occurred near the end of the trade's life), I would likely not be down that much.

On average though, my stop each month is $1,500 and my target profit is also $1,500. I've yet to hit my target profit (although I came very close one month), but I've also yet to be stopped out (although, if you've read this thread, you'll know I would have likely been stopped out during the big drop at the end of August, but technical difficulties and my own stupidity plus some dumb luck allowed me to escape that fate).
So, for 9 months at a stop of $1500 each month, total risk is $13,500 and you've profited $6.1K. Where can anyone get a 45% return with only a $1500 risk per month? Either you're incredibly lucky that the market didn't tank OR you know what your doing.......Either way, it doesn't matter, you've beaten the market. Very tough way to invest, well done....
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Old 09-27-2015, 06:52 PM   #319
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Actually, it's one of the easiest ways I've found yet to trade/invest...it's boring as hell, which is what trading is supposed to be...if you're doing it right.

It's also VERY forgiving...I've been doing this almost two years now. Looking forward to taking it up to four lots starting in 2016...
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Old 09-28-2015, 11:12 AM   #320
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Just opened my November M3:

Code:
Date	Time		Trade Description						Fees	Comm	Amount
09/28/15	11:01:45	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1130/1080/1030 PUT @7.62 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,286.00
		11:01:59	BOT +2 IWM 100 NOV 15 99 CALL @12.02 CBOE			-0.08	-11.49	-2,404.00
Graph:

Attached Images
File Type: png NovM3_092815.PNG (34.4 KB, 72 views)
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Old 09-30-2015, 08:29 AM   #321
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nicely done...b.o.l.....going forward....turbulence ahead...
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Old 10-08-2015, 04:55 PM   #322
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I had to roll up my butterfly yesterday...and unfortunately, it looks like I'm going to have to roll up again, but I just couldn't pull the trigger this afternoon, which was probably stupid on my part:

Code:
Date	Time		Trade Description						Fees	Comm	Amount
09/28/15	11:01:45	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1130/1080/1030 PUT @7.62 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,286.00
		11:01:59	BOT +2 IWM 100 NOV 15 99 CALL @12.02 CBOE			-0.08	-11.49	-2,404.00
10/7/15		14:08:11	SOLD -3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1130/1080/1030 PUT @5.85 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	1,755.00
		14:17:07	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1150/1100/1050 PUT @7.50 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,250.00
I have booked a $569.78 loss thus far with that move...current scary graph:

Attached Images
File Type: png NovM3_100815.PNG (35.2 KB, 69 views)
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Old 10-09-2015, 10:52 AM   #323
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I just rolled up again...sigh...lol...now booking a $908.56 loss...which puts me currently at slightly profitable overall based on the current graph below.

Code:
Date	Time		Trade Description						Fees	Comm	Amount
09/28/15	11:01:45	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1130/1080/1030 PUT @7.62 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,286.00
		11:01:59	BOT +2 IWM 100 NOV 15 99 CALL @12.02 CBOE			-0.08	-11.49	-2,404.00
10/7/15		14:08:11	SOLD -3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1130/1080/1030 PUT @5.85 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	1,755.00
		14:17:07	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1150/1100/1050 PUT @7.50 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,250.00
10/9/15		10:20:28	SOLD -3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1150/1100/1050 PUT @6.50 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	1,950.00
		10:43:47	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1170/1120/1070 PUT @8.20 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,460.00

Attached Images
File Type: png NovM3_100915.PNG (35.3 KB, 65 views)
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Old 10-26-2015, 11:55 AM   #324
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Just to let you guys know, even though my Delta has been well above 10 for quite some time now, I haven't touched this thing. I figured, I am only about 20 points away from 1180, I'll just let this thing ride, as I have been in the black with this trade almost the whole time (despite all the roll-ups). It hasn't been a LOT of black, but it's been black nonetheless...

So, it seemed pointless to me to add a vertical to drop the Delta, although I really need to train myself to just do that AS SOON as my Delta goes past 10 (or drops under -10). The verticals tend to be much cheaper that way....

This Friday is my day to exit (20 DTE), but I suspect I may look to get out before the Fed Meeting announcement on Wednesday.

Although, as I think about it, if I am still near the upper end of my tent (as I am right now), perhaps the best thing to do is ride out the Fed. Because the way I see it, the market has already discounted a rate hike at this meeting, so really, the only big move from this market WOULD be a down move after the FED...what could the FED say that could possibly make this market rally hard? I think the direction of a big move based on the FED would likely be DOWN. In all likelihood, there probably won't be much of a move at all when all is said and done Wednesday....

Decisions decisions...

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 10-26-2015 at 11:57 AM.
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Old 10-28-2015, 03:39 PM   #325
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Just exited my November M3...I think I made a tiny profit...but I'll know when I run the final numbers...I really blew this trade...could have exited at end of day yesterday up about $1,300...did NOT expect the RUT to be up 28 points today...and up 28 points BEFORE the FED announcement no less...

And to add insult to injury, I didn't even exit after the FED announcement when the market went down a bit...I have yet to manage my greed...

I'm sure the final kick in the balls will be the market tanking into the close the last 20 minutes now that I'm out...

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 10-28-2015 at 03:41 PM.
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Old 10-28-2015, 03:53 PM   #326
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Here's the recap...yup...tiny profit...I suck:

Code:
Date	Time		Trade Description						Fees	Comm	Amount
09/28/15	11:01:45	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1130/1080/1030 PUT @7.62 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,286.00
		11:01:59	BOT +2 IWM 100 NOV 15 99 CALL @12.02 CBOE			-0.08	-11.49	-2,404.00
10/7/15		14:08:11	SOLD -3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1130/1080/1030 PUT @5.85 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	1,755.00
		14:17:07	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1150/1100/1050 PUT @7.50 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,250.00
10/9/15		10:20:28	SOLD -3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1150/1100/1050 PUT @6.50 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	1,950.00
		10:43:47	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1170/1120/1070 PUT @8.20 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-2,460.00
10/28/15	15:36:38	SOLD -3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 NOV 15 1170/1120/1070 PUT @8.90 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	2,670.00
		15:37:22	SOLD -2 IWM 100 NOV 15 99 CALL @17.26				-0.16	-11.49	3,452.00
											--------------------------------
														+287.44
PaceAdvantage M3 Trading Tour 2015
_______________________________
January........+755.51
February.......-359.98
March..........+239.98
April............+795.25
May.............+1,201.32
June............+337.73
July.............+1,458.44
August.........+441.16
September...+1,226.53
October.......+287.44
-----------------------------
TotalYTD......+6,383.38
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Old 10-28-2015, 03:55 PM   #327
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BTW, did I say how much I love this trade? I ****ed this trade up more than anyone should be allowed to **** it up, and I still made money. This despite paying exorbitant commission rates...I don't know whether to , or
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Old 10-30-2015, 09:44 AM   #328
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Opened up my November trade (December expiration) yesterday afternoon:

Code:
Date		Time		Trade Description						Fees	Comm	Amount
10/29/15	15:21:15	BOT +3 BUTTERFLY RUT 100 DEC 15 1190/1140/1090 PUT @10.30 CBOE	-0.40	-18.99	-3,090.00
		15:22:25	BOT +1 IWM 100 DEC 15 108 CALL @8.85 BOX			-0.04	-10.74	-885.00
		15:22:25	BOT +1 IWM 100 DEC 15 108 CALL @8.85 BOX			-0.04	-0.75	-885.00
		15:22:25	BOT +1 IWM 100 DEC 15 108 CALL @8.85 BOX			-0.04	-0.75	-885.00
Graph:

Attached Images
File Type: png DecM3_103015.PNG (32.8 KB, 40 views)

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 10-30-2015 at 09:46 AM.
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Old 12-02-2015, 05:30 PM   #329
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Wow, I guess nobody really cares anymore...lol

Anyway, I was very lazy and stupid this month...hardly paid attention to the trade, but did watch it creep up and past something like 20 deltas as I was approaching 20 days to expiration. I was up a little bit at the time, and decided to do nothing and watch it more closely...

Then it went a few points ABOVE my upper strike limit (1200)...and I still did nothing...I was down a couple of hundred, but saw on the daily chart that we were at possible resistance...

Still holding today...and as you know, market dropped on decent enough volume...going to watch this thing very closely, but as of now, still holding...about even for the trade overall at end of day...and hoping for a nice pullback the rest of this week...if we break the high of the last two days, I will probably bail with a decent loss (probably about $500-$700 or something along those lines).

Just wanted to keep all three of you up to date on my December trade...

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 12-02-2015 at 05:32 PM.
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Old 12-02-2015, 09:14 PM   #330
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What were your commissions? You said they were exorbitant.

You said you were going to do nothing and just sit tight. What happens to your trade under various scenarios: if the market goes up, down or sideways?

The factors in my model all point to a continuing bull market.

The only negative factor is the P/E ratio of the S&P 500. It is around 22 today. That is on the high side which suggests the market is overvalued, speculative and signals poor long term performance.

The positive factors outweigh this one negative. So I think the market will go higher.

If the FED raises rates then the market could take a hit.
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