Recommendations for modern books/academic papers for mathematical handicapping?

[Robert Fischer]

like anything else you have to look at the models that drive the system

what is the system?
-it's a parimutuel market
---what is parimutuel??
---what is a market??

You have to look outside the game to best learn what parimutuel is, or what a market is. You're going to be searching the internet, and some will be books and some will be publicly disseminated, and some will be little quotes and phrases that you can find on a deep search.

Lots and lots of math out there for you to copy and hop on other men's shoulders to do a great job with statistics.

Very few/none freely shared, stuff out there that can usefully calculate irrational behavior of a market.

I like the story, that horse racing markets were invented because two good men disagreed about whose racehorse was best. It gives you a warm feeling for a minute, like a cup of coffee.

A market is a predatory wealth-concentration mechanism. They are designed to separate a herd from it's money. The takeout.
So why do people bet?
--Why do ppl gamble?
--Why do ppl enjoy a parimutuel game where you play against the other money?
--Why do ppl feel psychological biases about risk?
--Why do ppl feel """certainty?
--Why do ppl feel """greed?
--Why do ppl feel """fear?
--Why do ppl feel """groupthink?
--Why do ppl have value disagreements about whose racehorse is best??

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Having 6 selections a race is "good analysis"?......Got ALL of that one!..

focus on his win dutch plays, let me know what you think.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Having 6 selections a race is "good analysis"?......Got ALL of that one!..

You know R Randall the more I see of your enlightening posts the less respect I have for your insinuations. Your recent comment doesn’t hold any water and you know it! When I post 6 selections its ONLY when playing Hong Kong because there’s generally 12 to 14 entries in a race. Even then it’s only the top 3 picks that apply to my Dutch betting scheme. (Which BTW just produced a 45% O.A. profit margin at the last HK race meet).

Funny thing is guys like you that produce all those smartass comments never seem to share any of your own brilliant selections.

Here’s just a few I posted for Saratoga recently that only involved a maximum of 5 selections (2 Keys & 3 others for exotic play):
Post #225 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...153199&page=15
Post #266 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...153199&page=18
Post #282 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...153199&page=19
Post #282 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...153199&page=20

Yes, these selections and those results were all based on the tote board activities. So how about 4 Supers on a single card? But you know what’s really nice? I start looking at a race at about 15 mins to post and finalize my picks at 3 mins to post. There’s not n a lot of time required to come up with the contenders. I’m not interested in “Picking Winners”. I’m interested in making Winning Plays.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Funny thing is guys like you that produce all those smartass comments never seem to share any of your own brilliant selections.

I posted the entire Saratoga meet in 2017 with select plays BEFORE the first race of the card had run everyday, showing a 24% profit for the meet:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Results= Double Pop

Caledonia Road [12-1] 1st - 22.80 9.20

Engineers Report [8-1] 1st - 15.00 7.70

Daily Plays= 3
Daily Winners= 2
Daily Net= +31.80

Total Plays/Saratoga= 106
Total Winners= 13
Strike Rate= 12%
Running Total= +51.00

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

A recap of the 13 winners for the meet, all double digit:


Southampton Way [12-1] 1st - 20.80 10.60

Glorious Empire [12-1] 1st - 20.00 11.20

Steamboat Bill [10-1] 1st - 11.00 5.30

Photographer [8-1] 1st - 15.40 8.40

Evaluator [12-1] 1st - 20.00 9.70

Miko [12-1] 1st - 18.00 10.00

Held Accountable [8-1] 1st - 10.00 6.20

Chastise [12-1] 1st - 44.20 17.40

Monavista Crossing [20-1] 1st - 23.20 11.00

Catholic Boy [15-1] 1st - 26.40 14.00

We Deer You [10-1] 1st- 16.20 6.10

Caledonia Road [12-1] 1st - 22.80 9.20

Engineers Report [8-1] 1st - 15.00 7.70

[kingfin66]

I forgot about that. Nice job Randall!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I posted the entire Saratoga meet in 2017 with select plays BEFORE the first race of the card had run everyday, showing a 24% profit for the meet:

Well well! So, you have shared some worthwhile information. Gee that’s swell!
But that doesn’t give you the right to throw out negative comments in an attempt to downplay what others around here are doing.
Kind of makes you wonder what the purpose of those type of comments might be. I can think of only one motive. But perhaps you’d like to offer an explanation?