|
|
07-28-2012, 07:57 PM
|
#691
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by bob60566
Excellent call
But can you explain why you did not give us all the card to bet or more races.
Mac
|
Don't you know that greed is a terrible vice?
I give you the $9 winner, and the $68 exacta cold...and you ask for more.
Haven't you heard that too much money spoils a person?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 08:01 PM
|
#692
|
Vancouver Island
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Don't you know that greed is a terrible vice?
I give you the $9 winner, and the $68 exacta cold...and you ask for more.
Haven't you heard that too much money spoils a person?
|
If only more handicappers would follow that advice and cut back on races to bet on.
Mac
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 08:26 PM
|
#693
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,889
|
OK, seeing how I have a model for 8.5 T at Dmr, let's do the 10th.
First, I look at the horse's records on turf.
1 1 0-0-0 , trainer is 6% on turf routes. OUT
2 2 0-1-0 , trainer is 10% on turf routes - LEAVE IN for now
3 2 0-0-0 , trainer is 12% on turf routes, but J-T combo is 3/4 on turf, ROI 3.40 CONTENDER
4 3 0-0-1 , trainer is 10% and not much in any catagory - OUT
5 1 0-0-0 , trainer is 10%, J-T 0 for 6 on grass. Hot at Dmr so far, and hot with MSW, but turf not his forte. ???
6 6 0-1-0 , trainer is 13%, 28% in MSW....but not turf - OUT
7 4 0-1-1 , trainer is 12% and not much anywhere else either OUT
8 3 0-1-0 , trainer is 10%, but J-T is 24% on turf CONTENDER
9 2 0-1-1 , trainer is 30%, J-T is 50%, big ROI in both catagories, CONTENDER
10 5 0-0-1 , trainer is 22% and a positive ROI, CONTENDER
So far, 2,3,5?,8,9,10 are the contenders.
2 - ran up front in his two turf routes, 2nd two back, rushed up faded last time. Used 2nd line back.
3 - third off a layouff, stretched out first time last, speed for 6 furlongs. Used that line
4 - three turf routes, no stretch punch, looking like a proven loser for sure - use the 2nd back, but remember, need good odds on this one
5 - good line first route, use it
8 - no turf routes - OUT
9 - two good routes, use the last
10 - no form, OUT
Now I have the 4-5-9 as my HTR horses.
Looking at CJ figs, the 9 is his 4 rules horse, so that is now my top horse
Also looking good on CJs is the 7 horse - a top closer with competitvie back figs.
Now, the 7 is also an HTR BOMB horse, so I will keep him on my list.
My final contenders are 5-9-4-7
Tough race, can't get the cpntenders down to three....but let the odds tell me what to do
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 08:27 PM
|
#694
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,889
|
Here is my velocity look at the race, remember, I am looking for other than early horses.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 07-28-2012 at 08:29 PM.
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 08:34 PM
|
#695
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,889
|
Here is my odds line for the race.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 08:44 PM
|
#696
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,084
|
Thask
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The teacher needs to strut his stuff on occasion...or else he stands to lose the attention of the class.
|
Excellent analysis and betting.
Ice.
Now, how do I get my laptop to ring as soon as you post your selections - I don't want to miss them?
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 09:51 PM
|
#697
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,889
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Here is my odds line for the race.
|
OK, top pick is an overlay, and I cashed on it.
I have to admit, I had a WP ticket on the 36-1 as well, as a saver.
No exactas - race was too muddy.
But the overlay was nice at 5-1.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 10:10 PM
|
#698
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,115
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Don't you know that greed is a terrible vice?
I give you the $9 winner, and the $68 exacta cold...and you ask for more.
Haven't you heard that too much money spoils a person?
|
Thaskalos,
You mentioned in an earlier post you would be lost without speed and pace figures (which I dont believe)
In your selection it didnt appear there was much of an emphasis on the above...
I agree figures can be extremely useful....but Im of the opinion you can be "lost" just as easily solely relying on them.
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 10:24 PM
|
#699
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximillion
Thaskalos,
You mentioned in an earlier post you would be lost without speed and pace figures (which I dont believe)
In your selection it didnt appear there was much of an emphasis on the above...
I agree figures can be extremely useful....but Im of the opinion you can be "lost" just as easily solely relying on them.
|
My friend,
I don't rely "solely" on the figures...and the real skill is in interpreting them properly within the framework and peculiarities of individual races.
I would be lost without my speed and pace figures...because I refuse to bet on "slow" horses.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 07-28-2012 at 10:25 PM.
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 10:28 PM
|
#700
|
Vancouver Island
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
My friend,
I don't rely "solely" on the figures...and the real skill is in interpreting them properly within the framework and peculiarities of individual races.
I would be lost without my speed and pace figures...because I refuse to bet on "slow" horses.
|
Oh how true
Mac
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 10:34 PM
|
#701
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Thailand
Posts: 599
|
TOM
Thanks for sharing your Contender selection method.
DK
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 10:37 PM
|
#702
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,084
|
Echo that.
Tom, thanks for your work.
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 10:53 PM
|
#703
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,089
|
Gus -
Nice call. Speaking of call..give me a call tomorrow (Sunday)
Jon
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 11:31 PM
|
#704
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
|
one HELL of a job by EVERYBODY....
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
|
|
|
07-28-2012, 11:42 PM
|
#705
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,115
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
My friend,
I don't rely "solely" on the figures...and the real skill is in interpreting them properly within the framework and peculiarities of individual races.
I would be lost without my speed and pace figures...because I refuse to bet on "slow" horses.
|
My main point was if you "erased" all of the speed/pace figures for a given race
you would not be entirely lost....nothing more.
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|