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03-29-2017, 05:19 PM
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#316
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Zenyatta raced four seasons, so while she did not have the tough schedules as the horses of yesteryear, she did more than many modern day horses who retired after their three year old seasons, or a horse like Ghostzapper, who only ran 7 races.
I doubt Arrogate will race after this season, but, we have to take what we can get these days.
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+1
Zenyatta's critics are right that she could have and should have done a lot more, but they are wrong about how much she actually did.
Here's a simple metric on Zenyatta. And we can even throw out the synthetic races to do it (although we shouldn't). How long until another mare either wins the BC Classic or finishes second beaten a head or less? Will it be 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?
I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
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03-29-2017, 05:23 PM
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#317
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Zenyatta raced four seasons, so while she did not have the tough schedules as the horses of yesteryear, she did more than many modern day horses who retired after their three year old seasons, or a horse like Ghostzapper, who only ran 7 races.
I doubt Arrogate will race after this season, but, we have to take what we can get these days.
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Arrogate's last three starts trump any three of Zenyatta's career. Her career may wind up longer, but much of it lacked substance. I can't remember the names of three horses she beat in non-BC races, and doubt many others could either. That isn't her fault, of course. It was the humans. I'm sure the horse wasn't afraid of Rail Trip.
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03-29-2017, 05:24 PM
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#318
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,171
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How Zenyatta ended up in a WOW thread is just wow.
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03-29-2017, 05:25 PM
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#319
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
+1
Zenyatta's critics are right that she could have and should have done a lot more, but they are wrong about how much she actually did.
Here's a simple metric on Zenyatta. And we can even throw out the synthetic races to do it (although we shouldn't). How long until another mare either wins the BC Classic or finishes second beaten a head or less? Will it be 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?
I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
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I said it was her biggest feat, but that was a weak Classic by any measure.
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03-29-2017, 05:34 PM
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#320
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Arrogate's last three starts trump any three of Zenyatta's career. Her career may wind up longer, but much of it lacked substance. I can't remember the names of three horses she beat in non-BC races, and doubt many others could either. That isn't her fault, of course. It was the humans. I'm sure the horse wasn't afraid of Rail Trip.
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In all fairness, the connections put up all the money for these great horses, and they have the right to manage their careers however they want. I know that, if I were Zenyatta's or Rachel's owner...I wouldn't give a rat's ass for the "fan's" opinion of my horse. I'd do what's best for the horse, and for my pocketbook...and "history" be damned. The sport's "history" will remain checkered no matter WHAT these superstar horses accomplish on the track.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 03-29-2017 at 05:38 PM.
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03-29-2017, 05:38 PM
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#321
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,563
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
+1
Zenyatta's critics are right that she could have and should have done a lot more, but they are wrong about how much she actually did.
Here's a simple metric on Zenyatta. And we can even throw out the synthetic races to do it (although we shouldn't). How long until another mare either wins the BC Classic or finishes second beaten a head or less? Will it be 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?
I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
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How long is NEVER?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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03-29-2017, 05:46 PM
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#322
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
In all fairness, the connections put up all the money for these great horses, and they have the right to manage their careers however they want. I know that, if I were Zenyatta's or Rachel's owner...I wouldn't give a rat's ass for the "fan's" opinion of my horse. I'd do what's best for the horse, and for my pocketbook...and "history" be damned. The sport's "history" will remain checkered no matter WHAT these superstar horses accomplish on the track.
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Of course. That said, owners seem to be fair game in any other sport. Horse racing shouldn't be any different.
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03-29-2017, 05:48 PM
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#323
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
How long is NEVER?
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Hyperbole much? Beholder could have won the year Bayern did IMO. It can certainly happen again.
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03-29-2017, 06:51 PM
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#324
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
+1
Zenyatta's critics are right that she could have and should have done a lot more, but they are wrong about how much she actually did.
Here's a simple metric on Zenyatta. And we can even throw out the synthetic races to do it (although we shouldn't). How long until another mare either wins the BC Classic or finishes second beaten a head or less? Will it be 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?
I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
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In fairness, I don't think 3 lengths qualifies as up the track.
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03-29-2017, 07:08 PM
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#325
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,037
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
How much do you think the ground loss cost him? 93 feet is a ton for any race IMO.
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Where are you getting 93 feet from? Looking at the TRAKUS chart, and I see
-13 and -4 m (meters, I would think) for the 2nd and 3rd finishers for Cumulative Distance Delta.
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03-29-2017, 07:23 PM
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#326
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I said it was her biggest feat, but that was a weak Classic by any measure.
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There have clearly been better Classic fields, but on my metrics it wasn't as weak as the Beyer figure suggested. I think Blame was a LOT better than generally given credit for and imo she had a worse trip than him at the start and with kickback.
Still, that Classic field was much better than the typical Grade 1 race for older males. Most of the other great fillies/mares that have tried dirt colts have tried them in weaker Grade 1 male fields, not at 10F on dirt. Those that tried stronger fields at 10F have mostly failed, sometimes badly.
Beholder has been placed in fairly aggressive spots against males also and given a good account of herself.
I agree with you that they should have taken another major stab or two at big races. By far the biggest mistake was not going to Saratoga to face Rachel at 10F. It would have given her another race on dirt before the Classic and IMO she would have had an edge on Rachel at 10f. The way the race setup, she would have won in a jog.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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03-29-2017, 07:25 PM
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#327
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rsetup
Where are you getting 93 feet from? Looking at the TRAKUS chart, and I see
-13 and -4 m (meters, I would think) for the 2nd and 3rd finishers for Cumulative Distance Delta.
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It was a 2000 meter race and he ran 2039 meters. I know there is a system design issue that adds 7 feet extra per two furlongs. Look at any straight segment and you'll see it. So the 39 meters - the 35 feet of error equals about 93 feet.
I never mentioned Delta, you did.
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03-29-2017, 07:43 PM
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#328
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I can't imagine how traveling an extra 93 feet in a race can be considered to be anything else but a great disadvantage.
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I think it was actually 72 feet further than the horse that saved the most ground and 46 feet further than Gun Runner, but my math may be off a little due to Trakus issues.
To begin with, I didn't say ground loss is not a disadvantage. I said imo it's often not as much of a disadvantage at the literal extra feet traveled.
IMO, the impact of ground loss has a lot of variables, but primarily I think adjusting speed figures for ground loss is faulty because speed figures aren't measuring what a horse has in the tank at the end (along with accuracy issues). What we really want to know is how much extra energy the horse expended because he was wider and see how/where he finished against what quality of horse. I suspect we aren't going to agree on this subject, so I'll move on to other things.
At some tracks on some days (at some tracks fairly often), horses seem to do almost as well running in the outside paths as the inside paths unless they are WAY outside. Whether that's due to less inertia when you run wider, the turn banking being more significant away from the rail, greater comfort being outside horses, or track maintenance that makes the outside paths a little faster than the rail (without the rail actually being dead), is a problem for the physics guys.
I just watch races and describe what I am seeing on the turns and put it into my notes. My notes and bias ratings are often different than conventional wisdom on this subject.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 03-29-2017 at 07:56 PM.
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03-29-2017, 08:52 PM
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#329
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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If grown lost was as significant as figure makers assign, then trainers and jockeys would be fighting hard to take the shortest way around. Instead, there are plenty of trainers and jockeys who would rather be outside much of the time.
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03-29-2017, 08:57 PM
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#330
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I mean, people talk about this horse as if females are finishing second on the dirt in the BC Classic all the time. They just aren't. Heck, we had another top female a year later (Havre de Grace), really good mare, and she was up the track in the BC Classic. This isn't easy to do.
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Getting a bit hyperbolic here. "Up the track"? Havre de Grace was beaten all of 3 lengths when finishing 4th in the 2011 BC Classic. Fillies and mares have acquitted themselves quite well in the rare instances they attempted the Classic.
Triptych, a stout 4yo filly which pummeled males on a regular basis in Europe, was the first to try in the 1986 BC Classic. She split the field in her first dirt start, finishing 6th with a mild rally from far back.
The lightly raced 3yo filly Jolypha, a 1/2 sister to the great Dancing Brave, came over for the 1992 BC Classic and closed stoutly for 3rd, only beaten by subsequent HOY A.P. Indy and champion older horse Pleasant Tap.
Azeri, like Zenyatta a late bloomer that was coddled for the better part of her career, returned from a tendon injury and brief retirement as a 6yo to tackle males in the 2004 BC Classic. In a tailored merry-go-round, Azeri was unable to deal with either with an unpressured Ghostzapper or Roses In May, but the only other males to get the better of her were 2003 BC Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect and $4 million earner Perfect Drift.
Beholder, who had won the 2015 Pacific Classic by a pole, was set to start in the BC Classic, but was withdrawn due to respiratory problems. Considering the way that merry-go-round affair was conducted, in which Effinex sat second, stayed there, and suddenly became a Grade 1 horse overnight as a result, its not hard to imagine Beholder getting at least 2nd in that race.
2015 BC Turf winner Found, fresh off a victory in the 2016 Arc de Triumphe was pre-entered in the BC Classic, but opted for a repeat try in the Turf.
Given the recent spate of potential female starters this century as compared to the '80s and '90s, I would say it is only a matter of time before another top mare gets it done on a dirt surface.
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