BRIS Prime Power

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Question ...Why would you believe that your in "competition" with the other guys..??

Maybe I'm misinterpreting the R stuff....but

Isn't the math based on the factors you created?

Lets use your 4000 factors ( I know you cant use em all at once )
or some other amount....

Logistic regression will give you a correlation of those factors to the winning horses..you take out the ones that dont model winning horses ...and then refine those that are left .....to a point that you can be used and weighed like the Fibonacci approach...but a better predictability...

Mike

While there are certainly some factors that are better than others, ultimately, at the 50+ factor level just about everyone is going to have the same data. What separates one person/group from the other is the way they choose to analyze the data.

My opinion -- and it is just that (yours may be different) -- is that if I do what the whales are doing, then I am going to be in direct competition with them.

That won't likely have a good end result for me because:

1. they're better at it
2. they've got more horsepower (in terms of manpower as well as education)
3. they've been doing it successfully for a long time.

So, I choose to do something different. I try to play to the whales' weakness. That would be small, highly specific models. It is simply not what they do.

Just my opinion.


Dave

[mikesal57]

What do the "Whales" make up of the whole...2-3-4 % ????

And that "weakness" they have....do they have a weakness?


So I say , they are there and you cant do anything about it....

Just beat the other 95% , either you grind it out with low odds or wait for the 2 of 20 hits on double digits ...

Mike

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by pandy

It's nice that people have tested the Bris Prime Power, but it would be interesting to see how it does using odds ranges and using different rankings. For instance, playing horses that went off at 4-1 or better than had the top ranking, or playing the highest odds horse ranked in the top four Bris Prime Power. Either of these should produce higher ROI's than betting the top ranked pick.

JCapper stats for 2017 shows the Prime rank..#1....had a .84 ....for horses paying over $10
All other ranks are too low to even print...yuck

[headhawg]

I think that the gaps between ratings also needs to be tested -- ranks just aren't enough imo. I would think that a race with the top 4 Prime Power ratings of 150, 139, 133, 132 would play differently than one with 139, 138, 136, 134. Understanding the significance of gap size is probably important for all factors. In the program that I am currently working on it seems to be important. I could be wrong though.

[Light]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I am only interested in the contenders, I am much better than 31% picking a winner out of 4 or 5 horses.

I doubt that. Because my data agrees with the article's assertion that the top 5 Bris PP win approximately 87% of the races.

What it doesn't state is that the average payoff of those winners is $10.

So if you can pick the winner 31% from the top 5 PP horses (which you poo poo as a low ability) you would make a steady 50% ROI which is unheard of.

Because in 10 races, with a 31% hit rate, you would receive $30 on average and your investment would be $20.

You would basically be the best handicapper on the planet.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Light

I doubt that. Because my data agrees with the article's assertion that the top 5 Bris PP win approximately 87% of the races.

What it doesn't state is that the average payoff of those winners is $10.

So if you can pick the winner 31% from the top 5 PP horses (which you poo poo as a low ability) you would make a steady 50% ROI which is unheard of.

Because in 10 races, with a 31% hit rate, you would receive $30 on average and your investment would be $20.

You would basically be the best handicapper on the planet.

I dont believe the 10 dollar mutual, I have tracked about 100 races and average payoff is 6 and change.

And remember I said 2 horses in a 6 horse field, 3 max if within 2 prime points, 4 in 8 and only 5 when greater than 10, and no mdn races.

I think the biggest prices was 8/1, once. its a steady stream of odds on to 7/2....again, using tighter parameters than 5 horses in a 7 horse field thus catching more fliers is much much less likely.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by headhawg

I think that the gaps between ratings also needs to be tested -- ranks just aren't enough imo. I would think that a race with the top 4 Prime Power ratings of 150, 139, 133, 132 would play differently than one with 139, 138, 136, 134. Understanding the significance of gap size is probably important for all factors. In the program that I am currently working on it seems to be important. I could be wrong though.

For you Brian and my friend Derek....

GAPS.....nothing much showing here..this is from all of 2017

     By: SQL-F30 Gap

       >=Min        < Max        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct   Impact
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   -999.0000     -15.0000  -76276.50  200538.00     0.6196    4964  100269   .0495   0.3762
    -15.0000     -10.0000  -29339.60  122476.00     0.7604    5093   61238   .0832   0.6320
    -10.0000      -5.0000  -21547.60  123814.00     0.8260    8231   61907   .1330   1.0104
     -5.0000       0.0000  -15616.10   90512.00     0.8275    8845   45256   .1954   1.4853
      0.0000       5.0000   -8584.70   55474.00     0.8452    7497   27737   .2703   2.0541
      5.0000      10.0000   -3744.50   24872.00     0.8494    4550   12436   .3659   2.7805
     10.0000      15.0000    -900.80    6676.00     0.8651    1528    3338   .4578   3.4788
     15.0000      20.0000    -130.00    1350.00     0.9037     375     675   .5556   4.2220
     20.0000      25.0000     -37.70     292.00     0.8709      71     146   .4863   3.6957
     25.0000      30.0000     -38.60     116.00     0.6672      21      58   .3621   2.7516
     30.0000      35.0000     -10.10      44.00     0.7705       8      22   .3636   2.7635
     35.0000      40.0000      -2.40      54.00     0.9556      11      27   .4074   3.0961
     40.0000      45.0000      -1.80      44.00     0.9591       5      22   .2273   1.7272
     45.0000      50.0000     -32.00      32.00     0.0000       0      16   .0000   0.0000
     50.0000      55.0000     -23.20      32.00     0.2750       2      16   .1250   0.9499
     55.0000      60.0000      -6.70      28.00     0.7607       5      14   .3571   2.7141
     60.0000      65.0000      -1.20      26.00     0.9538       4      13   .3077   2.3383
     65.0000      70.0000     -16.20      24.00     0.3250       2      12   .1667   1.2666
     70.0000      75.0000      -8.00       8.00     0.0000       0       4   .0000   0.0000
     75.0000    9999.0000      -3.00      20.00     0.8500       3      10   .3000   2.2799

[headhawg]

Are those gaps between the highest and next highest PP? Between highest and 5th highest? Highest and lowest? I don't speak Jcapper -- how can you have negative gaps? The -999 is probably all data, but I am not sure of the other lines with negative ranges.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Are those gaps between the highest and next highest PP? Between highest and 5th highest? Highest and lowest? I don't speak Jcapper -- how can you have negative gaps? The -999 is probably all data, but I am not sure of the other lines with negative ranges.

This is for RANK #1 only....gap from 2nd place horse...

JCapper cant do other ranks...

[Light]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont believe the 10 dollar mutual, I have tracked about 100 races and average payoff is 6 and change.

I have tracked thousands of races, not 100. The top 5 PP horses usually correlate to the top 5 public favorites. And the average payoff of the top 5 public winners is certainly not $6+. I believe $6 + is the average payoff of the top 2 PP horses or the top 2 public favorites.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Light

I have tracked thousands of races, not 100. The top 5 PP horses usually correlate to the top 5 public favorites. And the average payoff of the top 5 public winners is certainly not $6+. I believe $6 + is the average payoff of the top 2 PP horses or the top 2 public favorites.

my communication skilz are poor

can you run the query like I said, I actually would really like to know, my sample size is really small

2 top pp in a 5 or 6 horse field = win % and avg mutual
3 top pp in 7 horse field = win % and avg mutual
4 top pp in 8 = win % and avg mutual
5 in fields > than 9 = win % and avg mutual

non maiden races only

[Light]

GMB@BP

I cant answer your question because my data does not have a field for number of horses in a race. That is because all my data has races of 8 horses or more, so field size would not become an issue. But like you, all my samples are non maiden races, no turf, no 2yo's or races for 3yo's only. No races shorter than 5.5f or longer than 1.1/8. No off track conditions either.

But if it helps, there was a regular poster who posted here about a year ago about the top 2 PP horses showing that they won 50% of the time. He had done a 15,000 race sample study. What he made me understand was that hit rate and average payoff were not affected by field size. I did not believe it at first but I did come to that same conclusion myself after looking into it.

His reason for posting was to see if we could find when one of the top 2 PP horses would win. If you knew that you could turn a profit because betting them blindly each race was a loss. But that the $64K question in horse racing.

[GMB@BP]

Thanks for getting back to me.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

my communication skilz are poor

can you run the query like I said, I actually would really like to know, my sample size is really small

2 top pp in a 5 or 6 horse field = win % and avg mutual
3 top pp in 7 horse field = win % and avg mutual
4 top pp in 8 = win % and avg mutual
5 in fields > than 9 = win % and avg mutual

non maiden races only

Most of the above are like this a % pt or 2

F 27 is Prime

     SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
           WHERE [DATE] >= #01-01-2017# 
           AND [DATE] <= #12-31-2017# 
           AND RANKF27 <= 5 
           AND FIELDSIZE >= 9


     Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
     -----------------------------------------------------
     Mutuel Totals   107916.20     109612.00     111398.10
     Bet            -134252.00    -134252.00    -134252.00
     -----------------------------------------------------
     P/L             -26335.80     -24640.00     -22853.90

     Wins                10187         19619         28317
     Plays               67126         67126         67126
     PCT                 .1518         .2923         .4218

     ROI                0.8038        0.8165        0.8298
     Avg Mut             10.59          5.59          3.93

[Frankie D]

Mike, to get pp do you have to have the BRIS data in JCAPPER or can you get it in the HDW data?

tia