What's do you consider a "longshot"? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

TiffaniO · 09-21-2017, 09:12 PM

I've noticed a few people in the selection section boasting that horses they touted are "longshots" or "bombs" when the horse is actually 5,6 or 7-1. It's nice handicapping but far from a "longshot"or "bomb" IMO. Thoughts? I say a "longshot" or "bomb" has to be at least 20-1. Thoughts?

thaskalos · 09-21-2017, 09:28 PM

IMO...there is a big difference between a "longshot" and a "bomb". If a horse's odds are as big as the number of horses that it faces in the race...then I call that horse a "longshot". But a "bomb" would have to pay $50 or more to win, on a $2 bet.

Cholly · 09-21-2017, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...there is a big difference between a "longshot" and a "bomb". If a horse's odds are as big as the number of horses that it faces in the race...then I call that horse a "longshot". But a "bomb" would have to pay $50 or more to win, on a $2 bet.

this (mostly)...I only look at horses if I think their odds will be at or greater than the size of field +2; i.e., 10-1 in an eight-horse field.

ultracapper · 09-22-2017, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cholly

this (mostly)...I only look at horses if I think their odds will be at or greater than the size of field +2; i.e., 10-1 in an eight-horse field.

I always keep this in the back of my mind also. 7/1 in an 8 horse field is what I call Natural Fair Odds. It's not any kind of a rule I follow, but it's something I always consider as a money's worth kind of bet.

I agree with Thask on a bomb. It's all about the Generals. Bombs in the Civil War were a lot bigger than those in the War of Independence. Two Washingtons for a Grant is getting your bombs worth.

Robert Fischer · 09-23-2017, 11:52 AM

Everybody is going to have different meanings.

From my perspective; you 'pick' a long shot, and you 'net' a bomb.

A Long Shot is a horse that you know is going off at big enough value to secure a minor score. This could be as low as 5-1 in the win pool in some races. Could be 8-1 in a trifecta. He's got a chance to win. He should contend. And, he's overlooked, resulting in a big enough price to produce a nice payout.

A Bomb is a horse that you 'net'. Maybe you keyed a long shot from the above example. Maybe you just hated a heavy favorite. The Bomb is a huge odds horse that you include on your ticket, and smile when he happens to hit the board.

Aside from betting, in handicapping I'll sometimes refer to a horse who needs several things to go his way as a long shot. He could be 5/2 on the board, (in this case, a terrible bet), but he needs to break well and secure a lone-speed trip, and I may feel he happens to be a long shot in this race...

Fox · 09-23-2017, 11:26 PM

Generically, I've always considered 7/1 and up as longshots. Of course, 7/1 in a the Kentucky Derby isn't a longshot though so maybe it would be best to qualify it factoring in field size. Anyhorse horse who's odds is the FieldSize/1 or greater. So in a 12 horse field, 12/1 and up. In a 6 horse field, 6/1 and up.

dansan · 09-25-2017, 12:05 AM

20-1 hand higher

Fred Mertz · 09-25-2017, 12:39 AM

I visited Churchill Downs today with a friend.

I bet a daily double in the 6th race - #8 and #7. I screwed up as I had intended to bet the 8 - 5 dd.

The chalk 8 won and the #7 was a first time starter and went off at 28-1 and he won!

My $5 daily double mistake netted me $332.

The end and true story. My best mistake lately.

georgetkingiv · 09-25-2017, 03:06 AM

Hi TiffaniO,

Try to think of thread titles in the selections sub forum as hype or advertising. The goal is to bring attention to your thread so people click into it and view your selections. While I might be inclined to agree with you that some of the hits that are posted in myself and others threads may not qualify as "longshots" or "bombs" others definitely do. I myself am always looking for value in my selections but they can not all be 100-1 shots. It is just not possible. I myself definitely do try to sprinkle in some bonafide "bombs" into my selections when posting, but as a handicapper / tipster here I am also cognizant that people may be betting real money on my selections. Therefore there is a pressure to perform knowing that fact because ultimately what people are looking to me for is help making money them money by wagering on horse races. If i was posting 100-1 selections all day it could be weeks before we hit one. Lol.

Anyways, my selections generated $492.20 in winnings tonight. That seems pretty "bomb".

n.c · 09-26-2017, 06:47 PM

went at less than 2-1 at CD, MSW 1st timer on turf..Philip Bauer, or some such the name for the trainer.

n.c · 09-26-2017, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

I visited Churchill Downs today with a friend.

I bet a daily double in the 6th race - #8 and #7. I screwed up as I had intended to bet the 8 - 5 dd.

The chalk 8 won and the #7 was a first time starter and went off at 28-1 and he won!

My $5 daily double mistake netted me $332.

The end and true story. My best mistake lately.

one reason, Daily D was big due to the fact 8 was like the 7th fav before the race and it went out at 2-1 fav. So majority the people did not have 8 in the ticket. 8 was also a first time starter.

dlivery · 09-26-2017, 07:23 PM

Will not happen
dynamics work hand in hand
throught energy excertion

Im just saying you get what you need and leave it to a lone early
Those will work if you can be sure it will not get bet

Si2see · 09-26-2017, 08:28 PM

My general thinking is double digit winner is a long shot and 20-1 and higher is a bomber , field size doesn't really come into play because I am looking for them in the win spot.

A 25-11 running third behind two favorites doesn't do you much good and wouldn't be considered a bomber to me

dlivery · 09-26-2017, 09:40 PM

Im looking for a horse 1:st ! 1:st and @ any distance

A N D drops back !00! _ 1

DeltaLover · 09-26-2017, 10:14 PM

My answer to the topic of this thread (as to the other that i going on :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=140978) is that both are about pseudo questions that do not make sense. In other words they both can be considered analytical statements at best and "nonsense" under a more strict critique. The answer to questions of the type "what do you consider X to be" or "Who is go Y" lies in their definition meaning that they can be seen as a "name" encapsulating a set of properties without any empirical verification.

See here for more:

http://wikidiff.com/essentialism/nominalism

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/n...m-metaphysics/

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!to...HpoA%5B1-25%5D