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Old 07-22-2018, 12:53 PM   #1
Teach
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Saratoga: Sunday, July 22

Race One:

TIED UP appears to be “the horse”. Yes, this Even The Score- (think Heavenly Score, Dullahan, etc.) bred, 3-year old filly holds a distinct class-edge over the others in this 20k claimer. I guess the only “fly in the ointment” (isn’t there always something) is: “Why is she “class-dropping?” (DRF labels it “suspicious”). As I look at weather radar for New York’s “Capital District,” I notice that it has been raining off-and-on up at “The Spa”. I have to assume (I have no knowledge as of this writing) that track conditions will be downgraded from “fast”. As for track wetness, this filly moves up. Her equine lineage says, “Yes, I can handle wet-track conditions,” e.g., Unbridled’s Song, Distorted Humor, Rahy, etc. There has been an over three-month layoff since her last race (she won) at Keeneland. Yet, her morning works are good. This filly does have the services of one of this country’s best jockeys, Jose Ortiz. Against this field, with her back-class, unless I don’t know something that somebody else does… One caveat: She will likely go prohibitive “chalk”. Tom Amoss trains. Others: GreasedLightning; Pure Praise; 6 NorthernStreetGal.

Race Two:
GHOSTLY BEAUTY. I like the turf pedigree on this first-time starter. Galileo-breds always catch my attention in turf races. I believe this 2-year old filly can “get the distance,” a maiden-special at one mile and ‘a teenth’. This filly’s morning works have been decent (I like it went horses are breezed from the gate). George Weaver’s a solid trainer who does well with horses entered in turf races. Manny Franco has his feet in the stirrups. Others: Two Dozen Roses; Aunt Ashley; 7 Sweet Carolina.

Race Three:

PONTI SCHEME is my medium-longshot pick here in this one-mile on the Inner Turf race. I realize that the outside post on the “Spa” Inner can sometimes be disadvantagous. Yet I believe this Gio Ponti-bred bay filly can overcome that hindrance. There is some early speed to shoot at here. If those front-runners tie up, this 4-year old can be there “to pick up the pieces”. As always, how the race unfolds is critical. Jockey Julien Leparoux has to time this Tale of the Cat-bred’s closing rush, perfectly (this filly’s other jockeys have done just that). Admittedly, this filly is stepping up (it’s just that I’m looking for value); she hasn’t raced in over two months. Monsieur Christophe Clement is this filly’s conditioner. Clement does very well with horses who are shippers and who are winners of their last race. Others: La Moneda; Complicit; Dolce Lili.

Race Four:

RED DUDE gets my tepid nod (I can make a case for three or four horses as “contendahs”. Nota bene: if you’re playing “gimmicks,” you might “Buy insurance”). I like this Stephen Got Even- (wet-track sire) bred’s outside starting post. This chestnut colt got caught down inside against better at CD over two months ago. I believe this 4-year old benefits from any wetness. In his only wet-track career race at Oaklawn Park, he finished a fast-closing 3rd. This Lovin Spoonful- (“You Know You Gotta Make Up Your Mind”) bred has generally faced much better throughout his career. Thus, the obvious question: “Why the drop?” To paraphrase those Clairol commercials: “Only his connections know.” Yes, he’s been away from the track for many a fortnight, but his morning works are good. The Panamanian-born Luis Saez is in the irons for trainer Ron Moquett. Others: Adulation; Benefactor; Cavallotto.

Race Five:

In this 9-panels, 85k maiden route, I’ve landed on ZEALOUS. Yes, this Tiznow-bred is a longshot. To paraphrase Alfred Lord Tennyson: “Tis better to have bet on a longshot and lost, than not to have bet at all.” “In Memoriam…”). I gotta tell you: I’m a sucker for 3rd starts off a layoff. Voila! Exhibit “A,” the aforementioned: Zealous. In his favor, one month ago, this 4-year bay colt was 3rd against similar downstate at Belmont. This Cee’s Tizzy-bred does have a solid wet-track lineage. “If the track is wet, it will abet.” Further, I can’t quantify this. It’s observation (the simplest method of research); yet, for whatever reason, Dylan Davis-ridden horses seem to move up on wet racetracks. Davis also does well in route races. This Elusive Quality-bred’s most recent morning work was good. Jim Bond trains. Others: Fireball Shot; Domain; Stealth.

Race Six:

In this allowance turf-sprint, I’m selecting BAM BAM BLU. I’m impressed with this late-blooming, lightly-raced Curlin-bred 6-year old gelding’s last race down at Monmouth. That race gives me the impression that he can transfer that sloppy main-track win to “the Spa’s” turf course. This Holy Bull-bred’s turf breeding is very good. He has the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. The gelding’s trainer, Jason Servis, does exceptionally well with shippers, first grass-races and horses “that have been on the bench”. This gelding’s broodmare, Bam Bam Bull, produced five turf winners. The breeding’s there. The lineage. Yet, the “proof is in the pudding,” or I should say: On the grass. Others: Wet Your Whistle; Fuel the Bern; 6 Mohican.

Race Seven:

In this 7 furlongs, 85k maiden special-weights sprint/route, I’m picking BIG BIRTHDAY. “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown (Mechanicsville is smallest municipality in the “Empire State”) trains this highly-priced Mineshaft-bred filly. The veteran Venezuelan-born reinsman, Javier Castellano, is in the irons. This A.P. Indy-bred finished 3rd against similar. I believe she moves up with any moisture on the Saratoga oval. I also believe that she’ll benefit from her outside starting post. She has the highest last-race speed rating. I give serious consideration to horses making their second start off a layoff. This filly’s morning works are good. I believe she merits serious consideration. Others: Ascot Walk; Golden Awards; Communal.

Race Eight:

GUERRIERE gets my nod in this one-mile turf event. This Irish-bred performed extremely well "across the Pond." The bay filly stretches out here after an off-the-board "chalk" try down at Belmont. The added distance will do her good. It's Javier Castellano in the irons for trainer Chad Brown. Others: Dancing Breeze; Stainless; Lion In Wait.

Race Nine:

In the 300k Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks at 9-panels over the main track, I’m picking: MIDNIGHT BISOU. You may have heard of “The Miracle Man,” manager George Stallings who guided the then 1914 Boston Braves from last place to first (the Braves later swept the vaunted Philadelphia A’s in the World Series). Then, there was “The Cinderella Man,” James J. Braddock who defeated Max Baer for the heavyweight title. Now, in thoroughbred racing, we have “The Money Man,” Dexter, NM’s own, Mike Smith. What else can you say: “Sittin’ Chilly.” His mount, the aforementioned Midnight Lute-bred 3-year old filly, Midnight Bisou, has been nothing short of outstanding. The Hall-of-Fame trainer from “The Streets of Laredo,” Steve Asmussen, is this precocious filly’s conditioner. Others: The obvious “other horse” is the Florent Geroux-piloted, Brad Cox-trained MONOMOY GIRL. Sin duda, this chestnut filly must be respected. Only one loss on her record, and that by a neck. If you’re betting exotics, I’d consider: Eskimo Kisses.

Race Ten:

In the finale, a maiden-special, one mile on the Inner, I’m going with COMPRESSION. Yes, it’s the “dynamic duo” of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown. Oyez! Oyez! Oyez! May it please the pari-mutuel wagering public. This bay filly is: “on the improve”. In her most recent start, her second try, lifetime, she closed impressively downstate at Belmont; she fined 3rd against similar. That, despite traffic problems. If Irad can avoid any traffic jams, this filly should be moving quickly into contention as the field reaches the homestretch. The aforementioned Chad Brown does exceptionally well with horses making their second route race. Others: CompetitionofIdeas; Asticou Trail; Tap Tap Taperoo.
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Old 07-22-2018, 01:11 PM   #2
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If it stays on turf -

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