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07-04-2018, 01:13 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I 'live in' the process, so results don't mean much to me.
However part of that process is finding good plays before the race, and the doing a post-mortem after the race (not looking at whether I should've bet the 7 instead of the 3, - but looking at whether I did in fact have a bet that was in fact within my circle of competence and good value).
When I'm struggling it's usually because I'm suffering from man-with-a-hammer disease. Everything looks like a nail (a potential play). I'm getting away from semi-rare real value plays that jump out to me, and my brain is 'finding a way' to play virtually any race that is coming up and is somewhat interesting. A the natural human bias to act.
I've stepped out of the process and I want a result, NOW!
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In general, in ANY form of gambling, if you are unable to pass/fold sometimes, you are a losing player.
An acquaintance who works in a sports book says the equivalent expression there is "anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser".
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07-04-2018, 01:15 PM
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#32
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
The horses have ZERO idea you're in a slump. You're one race away from it all being turned around and forgotten.
Fire away!
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Much respect for this comment right here.
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07-04-2018, 01:37 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,230
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My slumps come when I get three horse or race exotic-happy by playing too many exotics and playing too many horses in them when I do play them.
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07-04-2018, 01:47 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
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While the horses have zero idea you are in a slump, you personally are very aware of it. You can pound your chest and yell "I am the Man or Woman" 100 times a day, but deep within you know your struggling and every loss adds to that negative frame of mind. Too much of this game is subjective. Confidence is paramount. When things are going bad and your bankroll is going down the tubes, do you really expect yourself to make the best decisions? Will it kill you to cut your bets in half until you feel you that you are back to normal. It is a long term game and many of us have one bankroll.
My opinion is that when things just don't feel right, pull back on your betting. Things will get to normal soon enough.
By the way, I can drive 100 MPH on the freeway 100's of times, but that will not bring me back to life the day I lose control and kill myself. You play with fire, you get burned.......eventually.
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07-04-2018, 01:47 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
An acquaintance who works in a sports book says the equivalent expression there is "anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser".
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Yes. If they work in a sportsbook...then they must know what they are talking about.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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07-04-2018, 01:56 PM
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#36
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
In general, in ANY form of gambling, if you are unable to pass/fold sometimes, you are a losing player.
An acquaintance who works in a sports book says the equivalent expression there is "anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser".
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That's a good expression. Hadn't heard that one, but it's more true than false.
A good player can sometimes fall in love with a big race like the Belmont, and they see that Justify is a legit favorite and will be an unplayable price, and then their hamster wheel starts turning; "Well maybe I can still get value in a superfecta..."
For me, that thought process is dangerous. You win a few now and then, but you are trying to leverage value from a valueless position by 'out-smarting' the situation.
You start to see action in virtually any race you've handicapped, and you are trying to get in bets as they load into the gate to have something on that idea.
A baseball analogy would be swinging at a low-away slider, because "Well maybe I can still get a piece of the ball and hit a single".
Continuing the baseball analogy, a horseplayer wants to approach the game like Barry Bonds (the approach, not the steroids! ) or a Ted Williams or a Rogers Hornsby... -To patiently wait until a pitch is delivered into your 'happy zone', and then go ahead and stroke your homerun or double. Get a good ball to hit.
Get a good race to hit, a clear easy opportunity that jumps off the page as a significant opinion, and then take a solid approach to get your homerun or double.
The game treats the over-eager player as LeBron or Jordan or Pistol Pete will tell over-eager defenders; "You reach, I teach".
Quite a few slumps come from winning an 'overreach', and then continuing down that path while it's working, until it doesn't.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 07-04-2018 at 01:57 PM.
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07-04-2018, 02:08 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Perhaps it would help if the original poster participated a little more in this thread...by at least telling us what he considers a "slump" to be, in the first place. All constructive debate should begin by first accurately defining the pertinent terms used in the discussion. What many call a "slump" is often nothing more than the normal variance fluctuations inherent in all the gambling games in existence. When the gambler has as low a winning percentage as the horseplayer has...then the "slump" is the natural order of things, instead of the rarity that it's often made out to be.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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07-04-2018, 03:18 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Perhaps it would help if the original poster participated a little more in this thread...by at least telling us what he considers a "slump" to be, in the first place. All constructive debate should begin by first accurately defining the pertinent terms used in the discussion. What many call a "slump" is often nothing more than the normal variance fluctuations inherent in all the gambling games in existence. When the gambler has as low a winning percentage as the horseplayer has...then the "slump" is the natural order of things, instead of the rarity that it's often made out to be.
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The article speaks for itself. Other than that I've always been streaky.
Last edited by Andy Asaro; 07-04-2018 at 03:21 PM.
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07-04-2018, 06:25 PM
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#39
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Find an easier game.
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07-04-2018, 06:41 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Yes. If they work in a sportsbook...then they must know what they are talking about.
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Thask, if you don't know why anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser, than my friend certainly knows more than you do.
To explain, the Super Bowl is the classic precisely efficient line. Tons of money in the pool, no inside information, every minute detail priced into the line.
It also hapoens to be the last pro football game of the year, and the biggest, so it is irresistible to gambling addicts.
So the basic received wisdom of the bookmaking industry is that anyone who can pass the Super Bowl could be dangerously good and anyone who bets it doesn't understand efficient pools and is a fish.
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07-04-2018, 07:38 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Thask, if you don't know why anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser, than my friend certainly knows more than you do.
To explain, the Super Bowl is the classic precisely efficient line. Tons of money in the pool, no inside information, every minute detail priced into the line.
It also hapoens to be the last pro football game of the year, and the biggest, so it is irresistible to gambling addicts.
So the basic received wisdom of the bookmaking industry is that anyone who can pass the Super Bowl could be dangerously good and anyone who bets it doesn't understand efficient pools and is a fish.
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Only a gambling illiterate would assert that anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser. I, on the other hand, who am NOT a gambling illiterate...declared last year's Super Bowl to be one of the best sports-betting opportunities of the year. Of course...far be it for me to try and force you to comment only on the matters that you actually KNOW something about.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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07-04-2018, 08:08 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Thask, if you don't know why anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser, than my friend certainly knows more than you do.
To explain, the Super Bowl is the classic precisely efficient line. Tons of money in the pool, no inside information, every minute detail priced into the line.
It also hapoens to be the last pro football game of the year, and the biggest, so it is irresistible to gambling addicts.
So the basic received wisdom of the bookmaking industry is that anyone who can pass the Super Bowl could be dangerously good and anyone who bets it doesn't understand efficient pools and is a fish.
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Another shining example of your inability to grasp the inner nuances of serious gambling. The Super Bowl line is even MORE exploitable than the other NFL lines...for the very reason that you state above. There is WAY more uninformed money wagered on the Super Bowl than there is on any other single game in existence...and the bookmaker's job is to structure the line in a way which accommodates the avalanche of "heart-felt" opinions of the masses, which often defy the logic associated with the realities of the game. Yes, there won't be a solid wager to be found in most Super Bowls...but to categorically state that "anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser" is to admit your ignorance of these more intricate matters...which take real knowledge to comprehend.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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07-04-2018, 08:12 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Thask, if you don't know why anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser, than my friend certainly knows more than you do.
To explain, the Super Bowl is the classic precisely efficient line. Tons of money in the pool, no inside information, every minute detail priced into the line.
It also hapoens to be the last pro football game of the year, and the biggest, so it is irresistible to gambling addicts.
So the basic received wisdom of the bookmaking industry is that anyone who can pass the Super Bowl could be dangerously good and anyone who bets it doesn't understand efficient pools and is a fish.
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Your friend is full of crap. The super bowl is no different from any other game. A good bettor either sees an edge or they don't. Efficiency exists in the aggregate and not necessarily in individual games. Just like horse racing.
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07-04-2018, 11:26 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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I get banged up plenty in short periods throughout the year. I have had some nasty losing streaks in the summer that are usually 3-5 days. I hang at the pool next to the racetrack. Drink some beers. Have excessive sex for a few days. Or go play horseshoes in the country. Just take a breather. In the winter I seem to have bad days and bounce right back so I just go at it!
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07-04-2018, 11:49 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Your friend is full of crap. The super bowl is no different from any other game. A good bettor either sees an edge or they don't. Efficiency exists in the aggregate and not necessarily in individual games. Just like horse racing.
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That's an innumerate statement.
The Super Bowl line is almost certainly fixed within the probability band of 48 to 52 percent. I.e., if any bettor bets it every year, long term they will lose.
Bear in mind EVERY sports bettor believes they have an edge on every game they bet. That's why they bet them- they believe that the Rams are more likely than not to beat the 49'ers by 3 or more points. But aggregate edge- the likelihood that you are able to identify inefficient lines and not bet efficient ones- is the only way to actually beat the game. And you get no aggregate edge playing the Super Bowl. So yeah, betting the Super Bowl is what the bookies' saying says it is.
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