The Sociopath With The Weird Haircut Actually Showed Up For The Summit In Singapore

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

To the bolded:

But he has already given something up... in exchange for nothing. Obama made that statement yesterday he would be slaughtered here... just saying.

To the rest:

Yes I would just continue to ignore and sanction them.

If you look at my post about proxy wars and then your above post its pretty easy to see why. China and Russia will still have to support a financially and materially a broke regime that can't support itself. They have to waste resources to do that.

North Korea isn't going to start a war... it would be tragic and bloody but the outcome is still a foregone conclusion. They will lose. More importantly China and Russia would not allow that to happen.

Secondly, our presence in the Peninsula serves other purposes... it really really really pisses off the Chinese.

So yes... I would just sanction and ignore them. It hurts our main rivals more than us. That is not to say what Trump is trying right now is "wrong". I don't think he is. He is trying something different and it might work but I'm pretty skeptical and you should still be too... but the status quo is easy to go back to.

Do you know what a goodwill gesture is? It's when one person or side to a dispute takes the initiative to show good faith by making some token but real concession. A goodwill gesture does not require an immediate response, nor is one usually expected. Nor is a goodwill gesture etched in stone forever without any appropriate response by the other party at any time.

So...you have finally come around to realizing that Rocket Man & Co. at then end of the is nothing but a tick on the rump of the world -- a tick kept on a tight leash by Russia and China. He's a tiny country swinging a few big sticks going up against a much larger, wealthier, more powerful country that can swing many big sticks. We could exterminate the tick in a matter of hours

Thanks be to God that you're not in government. There are enough brain-dead people in public service as it is.

As far as Russia and China "wasting resources" to prop up Rocket Man -- that's their problem. That's the normal, going price they pay for proxies. And so far, they have been willing to do that. Perhaps they're so willing because that's what it actually to keep the dictator on their leash and keep him from starting WW III nuke style. If China and Russia want to play the Proxy Game, they must be willing to pay.

[davew]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I laughed just now hearing that nervous allies are trying to
figure out what will come out of the Singapore meeting.

Allies???
We don't need no stinking allies.

Apart from Israel, we really have none.
It's Trump's America versus The World.

For sure, until they need something - then once again they are our allies.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I laughed just now hearing that nervous allies are trying to
figure out what will come out of the Singapore meeting.

Allies???
We don't need no stinking allies.

Apart from Israel, we really have none.
It's Trump's America versus The World.

Actually, it's "Trump's America" in spite of the socialist-leaning world.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

Now they still have that city held hostage AND have nuclear weapons... its more than a tick.

Not any more. The threat has been eliminated and the Nobel Peace Prize is in the bag.

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump



Just landed - a long trip, but everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Not any more. The threat has been eliminated and the Nobel Peace Prize is in the bag.

Yes.
I'm sleeping so much better at night.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Do you know what a goodwill gesture is? It's when one person or side to a dispute takes the initiative to show good faith by making some token but real concession. A goodwill gesture does not require an immediate response, nor is one usually expected. Nor is a goodwill gesture etched in stone forever without any appropriate response by the other party at any time.

So...you have finally come around to realizing that Rocket Man & Co. at then end of the is nothing but a tick on the rump of the world -- a tick kept on a tight leash by Russia and China. He's a tiny country swinging a few big sticks going up against a much larger, wealthier, more powerful country that can swing many big sticks. We could exterminate the tick in a matter of hours

Thanks be to God that you're not in government. There are enough brain-dead people in public service as it is.

As far as Russia and China "wasting resources" to prop up Rocket Man -- that's their problem. That's the normal, going price they pay for proxies. And so far, they have been willing to do that. Perhaps they're so willing because that's what it actually to keep the dictator on their leash and keep him from starting WW III nuke style. If China and Russia want to play the Proxy Game, they must be willing to pay.

So we are now making "goodwill gestures" to the North Koreans...

Do you make goodwill gestures from positions of strength?

Ummm yes... that is actually my whole point about why the status quo is fine... proxy wars are small and manageable.

We can't... unless you want to open the nuclear pandora box. I've explained this countless times. Bloody, Tragic, Massive Collateral Damage... don't believe me check what Secretary of Defense has to say on the subject. So sure... we can annihilate North Korea in 15 minutes... how many cities in Japan and South Korea have mushroom clouds too? Worth the risk?

I know its great isn't it?!?! I don't think they even like the guy but they don't really have a choice because he's so inconvenient to us and better than the alternative. <see proxy wars again>

They are willing to do it because we spend material resources and significant political capital there.

You need to read up on Nuclear Deterrence and what it does. Don't you find it interesting that in the past few years they have ramped up missile testing and now suddenly shut it down and want to talk? Like really want to talk? Its because they have a nuclear deterrent. War is not an option in Korea anymore for us. They are going to exchange carrots for stuff they want.

The prospect of a conventional war in the Korean peninsula was too tough for us to swallow. Now its a nuclear one.

Trump is in a tough spot. He trying. He gets props for those things... it doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes. It doesn't mean that failure here and return to the status quo is a bad thing. Why is this so hard for you people to comprehend? Are you that far gone into dear leader praise?

He probably won't win here because he probably can't.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by boxcar

...

Box, I'm trying to have an intellectual conversation with you about political norms and balance of power stuff that have existed since states. This isn't some "hate Trump" dialogue I am on but a laying down of the facts without political spin because partisanship really has no bearing on North Korea or how to deal with them.

Here are some earlier posts of mine on the subject... I feel we are at the flip-a-coin stage between the two options on the second one. There is still the possibility for a third option but one of the previous two seem more likely post summit as not much was accomplished there.

The world is not a risk board. Being blown to pieces is not an option.

Everybody wants North Korea to do something or else... problem is we are out of "or else's..."

That's why they have the leverage plus they have lots of different concessions they can give without really giving much. They give up their nuclear testing program and ICBM program and... we're still in a worse spot than we were 20 years ago.

It all depends.

I'm pretty much in a hope for the best but fully ready to expect the worst.

Do I honestly think there is a chance we get the NK denuclearize? Hell no.

It likely goes one of two ways. The talks and deal fall apart as parties stay committed to their agenda's and the status quo remains. I would actually be okay with this.

What I am more concerned with though is the administration doing the more politically expedient thing and passing something for the sake of having a "deal" smacking the #winning stamp on it and moving on. In that scenario we take the carrots, ignore the stick, sell out our allies, and the administration earns political points at home.

We get a deal for the sake of a deal. Similar to Iran. It won't be bad... but it won't be good either... and a comparison of the two would have to wait until the all of the terms are disclosed.

I can tell you one thing though... a guy like Pompeo leading this charge IS NOT who I'd want at State.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

Box, I'm trying to have an intellectual conversation with you about political norms and balance of power stuff that have existed since states. This isn't some "hate Trump" dialogue I am on but a laying down of the facts without political spin because partisanship really has no bearing on North Korea or how to deal with them.

Here are some earlier posts of mine on the subject... I feel we are at the flip-a-coin stage between the two options on the second one. There is still the possibility for a third option but one of the previous two seem more likely post summit as not much was accomplished there.

I don't believe we're "out of or else's". Plain and simple.

You're having a freaking cow because Trump made nothing more than a goodwill gesture to the dictator. Will it work? We don't know. But there is no harm in trying since that gesture can be withdrawn at Trump's discretion. Very much UNLIKE Obama with Iran, Trump did not give up anything to NK of substance that cannot easily be retracted.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained...

Or another way of looking at this is that Trump went fishing. He baited the hook, tossed his line into the water and is hoping Rocket Man will bite. But if he doesn't, then he simply wheels in the line, along with the bait and calls it a day. Wow! What a horrible, horrendous, stupid, ignorant plan that is, huh? Man, what was Trump thinking? Doesn't he know that money talks, everything else walks? (I mean even Obama the Bimbo knew that!) I can't understand for the life of me why he didn't offer Kim a half a trillion bucks to cement the deal.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Actually, it's King "Trump's America" in spite of the mixed capitalist socialist-leaning world.

FTFY

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

So we are now making "goodwill gestures" to the North Koreans...

Do you make goodwill gestures from positions of strength?

Ummm yes... that is actually my whole point about why the status quo is fine... proxy wars are small and manageable.

We can't... unless you want to open the nuclear pandora box. I've explained this countless times. Bloody, Tragic, Massive Collateral Damage... don't believe me check what Secretary of Defense has to say on the subject. So sure... we can annihilate North Korea in 15 minutes... how many cities in Japan and South Korea have mushroom clouds too? Worth the risk?

I know its great isn't it?!?! I don't think they even like the guy but they don't really have a choice because he's so inconvenient to us and better than the alternative. <see proxy wars again>

They are willing to do it because we spend material resources and significant political capital there.

You need to read up on Nuclear Deterrence and what it does. Don't you find it interesting that in the past few years they have ramped up missile testing and now suddenly shut it down and want to talk? Like really want to talk? Its because they have a nuclear deterrent. War is not an option in Korea anymore for us. They are going to exchange carrots for stuff they want.

The prospect of a conventional war in the Korean peninsula was too tough for us to swallow. Now its a nuclear one.

Trump is in a tough spot. He trying. He gets props for those things... it doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes. It doesn't mean that failure here and return to the status quo is a bad thing. Why is this so hard for you people to comprehend? Are you that far gone into dear leader praise?

He probably won't win here because he probably can't.

Fine. And if he doesn't "win" then he can join all the many presidents before him -- Republicans and Dems alike. Clinton didn't win. Obama didn't win (cause he didn't even want to play but the world gave him the Nobel Peace Prize for showing up). None of the Bushes won. No "probably" about any of them.

And what is so wrong about a goodwill gesture? It's not as though Trump gave away the farm. But hey...if you want to bite your finger nails down to the finger joints, be my guest.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by boxcar

I don't believe we're "out of or else's". Plain and simple.

You're having a freaking cow because Trump made nothing more than a goodwill gesture to the dictator. Will it work? We don't know. But there is no harm in trying since that gesture can be withdrawn at Trump's discretion. Very much UNLIKE Obama with Iran, Trump did not give up anything to NK of substance that cannot easily be retracted.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained...

Or another way of looking at this is that Trump went fishing. He baited the hook, tossed his line into the water and is hoping Rocket Man will bite. But if he doesn't, then he simply wheels in the line, along with the bait and calls it a day. Wow! What a horrible, horrendous, stupid, ignorant plan that is, huh? Man, what was Trump thinking? Doesn't he know that money talks, everything else walks? (I mean even Obama the Bimbo knew that!) I can't understand for the life of me why he didn't offer Kim a half a trillion bucks to cement the deal.

First... comparing this summit to the JCPOA is absolute absurdity at this point. One is a international agreement with hundreds of pages of stipulations, definitions, and enforcement clauses.

Its apples in oranges. Obama gave Iran back its own money that was seized in exchange for Iran ceasing high grade enrichment. That was a tit for tat. He also did a bunch of shady stuff here and there instead of being transparent about it to try and get the deal done.

Trump isn't anywhere near that point though I suspect, if the goal is true Denuclearization, the list is stuff we give up is going to be pretty ****ing long. Will it be worth it in the end? We have no idea yet.

As far as that concession we will agree to disagree it was foolhardy. You don't issue a vague statement then give up something very specific in front of the press. Especially without consulting allies and your military leaders. It was a mistake... pointblankperiod... You wouldn't have done it.

Maybe he was tired. Maybe the presser dragged on too long... whatever... it was a mistake.

I'm not the one saying the sky is falling. I'm calling a spade a spade while you're trying to convince me its a club.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

First... comparing this summit to the JCPOA is absolute absurdity at this point. One is a international agreement with hundreds of pages of stipulations, definitions, and enforcement clauses.

Its apples in oranges. Obama gave Iran back its own money that was seized in exchange for Iran ceasing high grade enrichment. That was a tit for tat. He also did a bunch of shady stuff here and there instead of being transparent about it to try and get the deal done.

Trump isn't anywhere near that point though I suspect, if the goal is true Denuclearization, the list is stuff we give up is going to be pretty ****ing long. Will it be worth it in the end? We have no idea yet.

As far as that concession we will agree to disagree it was foolhardy. You don't issue a vague statement then give up something very specific in front of the press. Especially without consulting allies and your military leaders. It was a mistake... pointblankperiod... You wouldn't have done it.

Maybe he was tired. Maybe the presser dragged on too long... whatever... it was a mistake.

I'm not the one saying the sky is falling. I'm calling a spade a spade while you're trying to convince me its a club.

Yeah, I would have done it because I would have nothing to lose. In fact, I would have everything to gain.

The goodwill gesture is a win-win for Trump. If Rocket Man doesn't take the bait, Trump can always say, "I made a good faith" effort -- I offered a peace token to ease tensions -- as opposed to Rocket Guy making no such effort. Trump can say, "I took the high road" (you recall how Obama often referred to the "high road", right?).

On the other hand, if something actually good comes from the goodwill gesture, then obviously Trump wins here, too.

As far as Obama giving Iran back its own money in the dead of night under the cover of darkness -- you're entitled to that inane interpretation I say Obama, the serial liar, bribed them -- and got nothing in return. But that's a discussion for another time.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Fine. And if he doesn't "win" then he can join all the many presidents before him -- Republicans and Dems alike. Clinton didn't win. Obama didn't win (cause he didn't even want to play but the world gave him the Nobel Peace Prize for showing up). None of the Bushes won. No "probably" about any of them.

And what is so wrong about a goodwill gesture? It's not as though Trump gave away the farm. But hey...if you want to bite your finger nails down to the finger joints, be my guest.

That post I quoted earlier up shows you why this is a scenario we really can't win. At least not in the traditional sense.

North Korea is/was in a unique position where it could hold a massive civilian population hostage throughout all of this. War in the peninsula was always an option but it was simply too costly. Of course we would end up winning it but it would be a Pyrrhic Victory.

We could go further back than even Clinton if we wanted to assign blame. What if Truman would have just given MacArthur a few nuclear weapons to beat the Chinese back or authorized the landing in Manchuria he asked for? Or what it MacArthur, instead of being an idiot, actually heeded the Chinese warnings not to approach the Yalu River?

Point is we are where we are... conventional war was always considered too costly... now its nuclear.

We shouldn't have given the North Koreans any sort of "goodwill gesture" because by its very nature we get nothing in return. We don't grovel and offer things to dictators without something in return and in this case we got nothing. Obama embarked on his goodwill world tour and around these parts it was called the "apology tour." That was to allies... this is to the Kim's.

You're right it probably won't amount to much but it shouldn't have been done. Talks will likely fail and we will go back to the status quo. Trump will get props for attempting something different. Withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula though is a defeat should that end up occurring now matter how you slice it.

[Ocala Mike]

I served as an advisor to the ROKAF while in the USAF during the 60's. Don't know what it's like now, but back then the Joint Military Exercises were extremely essential to our training mission.


Anyway, remember this phrase spoken after another historic summit meeting:

"Peace for our time." - Neville Chamberlain, 1938

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Yeah, I would have done it because I would have nothing to lose. In fact, I would have everything to gain.

The goodwill gesture is a win-win for Trump. If Rocket Man doesn't take the bait, Trump can always say, "I made a good faith" effort -- I offered a peace token to ease tensions -- as opposed to Rocket Guy making no such effort. Trump can say, "I took the high road" (you recall how Obama often referred to the "high road", right?).

I give zero shits about the high road when it comes to realpolitik.

You're the one lumping Trump and Obama here together not me.

I'm perfectly content to let Syria keep burning and to have planes, tanks, and bombs on both sides of the DMZ.

Originally Posted by boxcar

On the other hand, if something actually good comes from the goodwill gesture, then obviously Trump wins here, too.

If something remarkable happens I am fully prepared to give Trump all his just praise. He's getting it even from me if everything falls apart at this exact moment. Though I getting sense from his supporters around here what we consider a policy victory are going to be very different. He is already framing a withdrawal form the Peninsula as a win. I don't. China does.

Originally Posted by boxcar

As far as Obama giving Iran back its own money in the dead of night under the cover of darkness -- you're entitled to that inane interpretation I say Obama, the serial liar, bribed them -- and got nothing in return. But that's a discussion for another time.

He did actually. There is no way to deny that. We can argue whether the ends justified the means until the cows come home but Trump Administration officials even admit Iran was complying with the nuclear deal. This is not a subject open for debate.