Is EARLY the majority running style...?

[VigorsTheGrey]

I suspect that the EARLY running style has a larger population of runners than either PRESSER or CLOSER but by how many...?

50% Early
30% Presser
20% Closer

The reason I bring this up is: How do the impact values account for the possibility that there simply are more Early runners in training than the other styles...?

Are the tracks really speed favoring...Or are there simply more Early runners in general that tend to beef up the stats...?

What are the running style populations in reality...?

[elhelmete]

Do you play the horses?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Of course, why do you ask...?

[Buckeye]

That's an excellent question and then?

I don't know, but I do know horses that take the early lead often prevail.

Which horse will take the lead is the greater question?

I gave up trying to predict any such thing and focus on many things at the same time.

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

That's an excellent question and then?

I don't know, but I do know horses that take the early lead often prevail.

Which horse will take the lead is the greater question?

I gave up trying to predict any such thing and focus on many things at the same time.

Simply looking for the best past 1/2 mile time while being on the lead for the first two calls has worked pretty good for me in predicting the leader.

My issue is knowing whether or not the horse is good enough to hold the lead and what factors will determine it. Dropping in class is one that I favor.

In fact, I'm gonna start a thread in this section titled, "Who will be on the lead"? People can list the races they choose and we can analyze. If nobody bites....then oh well.

Happy New Year and best of luck all!!

[MONEY]

I don't know how this could help, but here it is anyway.

At Aqueduct today there were 68 total entries before scratches.

21 E
18 E/P
12 P
06 S
11 NA or 1st timers

Gulfstream had 90 entries.

18 E
18 E/P
18 P
21 S
15 NA or 1st timers

Santa Anita had 87 entries.
24 E
27 E/P
18 P
13 S
05 NA or 1st timers

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by MONEY

I don't know how this could help, but here it is anyway.

At Aqueduct today there were 68 total entries before scratches.

21 E
18 E/P
12 P
06 S
11 NA or 1st timers

Gulfstream had 90 entries.

18 E
18 E/P
18 P
21 S
15 NA or 1st timers

Santa Anita had 87 entries.
24 E
27 E/P
18 P
13 S
05 NA or 1st timers

Thanks, this is just the kind of stats I'm interested in...now if we could only extrapolate for the entire past meet ...that would be sometime...!

It does raise the curious role of the E/P runners....in that, while on the one hand the E, P, and S are clear types...the E/P is a hybrid category... This is somewhat misleading or confusing...not really a confirmed Early type, and not really a confirmed Presser, yet BOTH...?

But the question remains...if there are simply more combined E and E/P types involved in the races, then, ipso facto, there will naturally be more of those outcomes, so which comes first, the chicken or the egg...?

[NorCalGreg]

I'll take a guess and say E/P's won 36 of those total races.

[Dave Schwartz]

I'm struggling to understand what you want to know.

Is it:

• What percentage of starters actually run early?
• What is the impact value of starters that run early?
• What is the impact value of horses that predict to run early?

Clarify this stuff and I'll try to produce some meaningful answers for you.

[MONEY]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I'll take a guess and say E/P's won 36 of those total races.

Almost

E 7
E/P 10
P 6
S 4
NA 1, Not 1st timer

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I'm struggling to understand what you want to know.

Is it:

• What percentage of starters actually run early?
• What is the impact value of starters that run early?
• What is the impact value of horses that predict to run early?

Clarify this stuff and I'll try to produce some meaningful answers for you.

Thanks Dave,
Was thinking more of the percentage of starters on race day. Each a race style listed adjacent to their name on that race....so, for example, if today's 8th race at "x" track had 10 runners, 6 of whom were listed in Bris, for example as E, 3 listed as P and 2 listed as S....then the shear population count of E runners would naturally tend to skew toward an E winning majority in the impact values, irrespective of other factors.
I'm unclear of what I'm searching for at this point...

Maybe what is the total number of horses that ARE...E versus E/P, P, S...?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I'm struggling to understand what you want to know.

Is it:

• What percentage of starters actually run early?
• What is the impact value of starters that run early?
• What is the impact value of horses that predict to run early?

Clarify this stuff and I'll try to produce some meaningful answers for you.

Total number of races won by the running style for the majority running style as determined by running style count per each contest.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Hypothesis: In large sample sizes, a majority of winners will come from the ranks of the majority running style within each race.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Thanks Dave,
Was thinking more of the percentage of starters on race day. Each a race style listed adjacent to their name on that race....so, for example, if today's 8th race at "x" track had 10 runners, 6 of whom were listed in Bris, for example as E, 3 listed as P and 2 listed as S....then the shear population count of E runners would naturally tend to skew toward an E winning majority in the impact values, irrespective of other factors.
I'm unclear of what I'm searching for at this point...

Maybe what is the total number of horses that ARE...E versus E/P, P, S...?

• What percentage of starters actually run early?
• What is the impact value of starters that run early?
• What is the impact value of horses that predict to run early?

It sounds like you are looking for a predictive study.

Since I have no BRIS data I cannot fulfill this. I can, of course, do it with the data I have but the predictive would need to be something such as ES Points or something based upon past running styles.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

• What percentage of starters actually run early?
• What is the impact value of starters that run early?
• What is the impact value of horses that predict to run early?

It sounds like you are looking for a predictive study.

Since I have no BRIS data I cannot fulfill this. I can, of course, do it with the data I have but the predictive would need to be something such as ES Points or something based upon past running styles.

I think the study would be to address the below stated hypothesis in whatever format is available to a person. It involves determining which running style has a majority in each race. In some races there might be more closers than early types so the majority style for that race would be closer. Then confirm which style actually won the race and then repeat this process for all races selected. The results should establish whether or not the majority running style is dominant, generally, in individual contests...Ties would be scored as a win for each or otherwise accounted for or neutralized,

At first the hypothesis seems contrarian, don't you think?

Hypothesis: In large sample sizes, a majority of winners will come from the ranks of the majority running style within each race.