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Old 09-22-2018, 02:39 PM   #61
ReplayRandall
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Bobphilo said that 5 of the 7 horses in that Wednesday Belmont race ran an "accelerate-decelerate-recelerate" running line...and that this particular running line is unusual for a U.S. dirt track. Can we find out how "unusual" such a running line really is?
CJ is going to run a query for "The "Valley", 80, 70, 80.....Hopefully we'll know just how unusual this running line might be....or not.

Herd mentality is always in the mix as well.
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Old 09-22-2018, 02:41 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Bobphilo said that 5 of the 7 horses in that Wednesday Belmont race ran an "accelerate-decelerate-recelerate" running line...and that this particular running line is unusual for a U.S. dirt track. Can we find out how "unusual" such a running line really is?
I will run the numbers, but I already know it isn't nearly as common as a steady declining or inclining pattern. In many races the entire field will follow the same type pattern, to varying degrees of course. For example, when races fall apart, something like a 100, 80, 60, even the deep closer will often show a declining figure pattern. They just decline less than the rest of them.
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Old 09-22-2018, 02:41 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
CJ is going to run a query for "The "Valley", 80, 70, 80.....Hopefully we'll know just how unusual this running line might be....or not.

Herd mentality is always in the mix as well.
Bingo.
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Old 09-22-2018, 03:46 PM   #64
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This is turning into a very interesting thread.

I was able to find that article about the Travers using Google.
Very good read, using the numbers and the eyes to see the whole picture of the race.

Good read.
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:00 PM   #65
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I will run the numbers, but I already know it isn't nearly as common as a steady declining or inclining pattern. In many races the entire field will follow the same type pattern, to varying degrees of course. For example, when races fall apart, something like a 100, 80, 60, even the deep closer will often show a declining figure pattern. They just decline less than the rest of them.
Let me phrase it in another way...and please correct me if I am wrong:

Every speed horse in every single race that we see is trying to accomplish the exact same thing...and that is...to rush out of the gate and establish an uncontested lead...so the horse can then slow down the pace during the second fraction...and then reassert itself during the latter stages of the race. This is the "accelerate-decelerate-recelerate" scenario in action...and it's the most efficient way for the pace-setter to run. And the only reason that we DON'T see this sort of scenario play itself out more often is because the OTHER jockeys in the race RECOGNIZE how efficient this is as a race strategy...and they aren't so accommodating to the front-runner's wishes.

When we see that a certain race setup isn't as "common" as we think it should be...we have to ask ourselves: "Is this scenario rare because it is so taxing on the energy reserves of the horse...or is it rare because it's so BENEFICIAL for the horse that the OTHER jockeys in the race won't let the horse get away with it?"
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:02 PM   #66
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I will run the numbers, but I already know it isn't nearly as common as a steady declining or inclining pattern. In many races the entire field will follow the same type pattern, to varying degrees of course. For example, when races fall apart, something like a 100, 80, 60, even the deep closer will often show a declining figure pattern. They just decline less than the rest of them.
Thanks cj. Am looking forward to the result. The author of the article on another thread with the Travers article trying to explain the poor time for the race had the same point about how this pattern is relatively uncommon in U.S. dirt racing compared to Europe. I think my Belmont race analysis is another example that explains the effect on speed figures along with the poor time. While it is less common here when it does occur it seems to be a potent factor. The good thing about the TimeformUS figures is that they include the pace figures and splits for the first 3 calls where the pattern is evident when it occurs. I wonder if an algorithm could be found to quantify this effect, but in any case, just eye balling the figures can give a good feel or its effect qualitatively.
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:19 PM   #67
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Let me phrase it in another way...and please correct me if I am wrong:

Every speed horse in every single race that we see is trying to accomplish the exact same thing...and that is...to rush out of the gate and establish an uncontested lead...so the horse can then slow down the pace during the second fraction...and then reassert itself during the latter stages of the race. This is the "accelerate-decelerate-recelerate" scenario in action...and it's the most efficient way for the pace-setter to run. And the only reason that we DON'T see this sort of scenario play itself out more often is because the OTHER jockeys in the race RECOGNIZE how efficient this is as a race strategy...and they aren't so accommodating to the front-runner's wishes.

When we see that a certain race setup isn't as "common" as we think it should be...we have to ask ourselves: "Is this scenario rare because it is so taxing on the energy reserves of the horse...or is it rare because it's so BENEFICIAL for the horse that the OTHER jockeys in the race won't let the horse get away with it?"
Have to disagree with the statement that this accelerate - decelerate - re-accelerate pattern is more efficient for the front runner. Both my Belmont example and the Travers article show that this will adversely affect the final time and speed figure of any horse running this pattern. Leader or chaser. The laws of physics apply equally to all.
The only way for off the pace horses to avoid its effect is not to mimic the leader. Sometimes the leader is forced into this pattern if its pace to the 1st call is to fast to be maintained throughout the race and he has to take a break somewhere. That's what happened to Cartwheelin Lulu at Belmont. Fortunately for her, most of the other horses followed the same inefficient pattern so she got away with it.

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Old 09-22-2018, 04:23 PM   #68
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This is turning into a very interesting thread.

I was able to find that article about the Travers using Google.
Very good read, using the numbers and the eyes to see the whole picture of the race.

Good read.
Yep. Very thought provoking article. That's what got me thinking when the same thing happened in the Belmont race.
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:29 PM   #69
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Have to disagree with the statement that this accelerate - decelerate - re-accelerate pattern is more efficient for the front runner. Both my Belmont example and the Travers article show that this will adversely affect the final time and speed figure of any horse running this pattern. Leader or chaser. The laws of physics apply equally to all.
The only way for off the pace horses to avoid its effect is not to mimic the leader. Sometimes the leader is forced into this pattern if its pace to the 1st call is to fast to be maintained throughout the race and he has to take a break somewhere. That's what happened to Cartwheelin Lulu at Belmont. Fortunately for her, most of the other horses followed the same inefficient pattern so she got away with it.
Disagreements lead to the most interesting discussions...IMO.

What, in your opinion, is the most "efficient" way for the pace-setter to run? Should the pace-setter be more "reserved" out of the gate...and have the pressers breathing down his neck during the race's early stages?
Or should the pace-setter pressure himself all the way to the half-mile...so he can open the largest early lead that he is capable of?

Again...I don't mean to appear overly argumentative. It just seems to me that topics such as these cannot be settled solely by the analysis of one particular race...and the reading of a solitary handicapping article.
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:32 PM   #70
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We aren't talking about "race shapes"...we are talking about the independent running lines of the particular horses involved in the race. The "shape" of the race in general shows one thing...but the horses' individual race-shapes show something else altogether.
You are correct with the following statement from your post and its understanding can mathematically be shown.

“We aren't talking about "race shapes"...we are talking about the independent running lines of the particular horses involved in the race. The "shape" of the race in general shows one thing...but the horses' individual race-shapes show something else altogether.”
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:37 PM   #71
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You are correct with the following statement from your post and its understanding can mathematically be shown.

“We aren't talking about "race shapes"...we are talking about the independent running lines of the particular horses involved in the race. The "shape" of the race in general shows one thing...but the horses' individual race-shapes show something else altogether.”
Well by all means show it. Don't be shy. Why bring it up otherwise?
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:40 PM   #72
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"When a horse jumps to an early uncontested lead, and settles into a comfortable pace to the half-mile...then this horse will deliver the best performance of which it is capable".
-- Andrew Beyer (Book and page number pending)
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:41 PM   #73
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"When a horse jumps to an early uncontested lead, and settles into a comfortable pace to the half-mile...then this horse will deliver the best performance of which it is capable".
-- Andrew Beyer (Book and page number pending)
Of course, it just depends how you define comfortable. In cases like the Wednesday race the other jockeys were just too passive. This isn't uncommon on the NYRA circuit where the checks are so big for placings that winning isn't always a priority IMO.
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Old 09-22-2018, 04:49 PM   #74
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I am not trying to "insult you", nor am I "casting aspersions" on your handicapping ability...but what you say here couldn't POSSIBLY be any more wrong than it already is...IMO. Every day, at every track in the land, we see horses who are raised in class to meet opposition which HASN'T run as fast -- either early OR late -- as these class risers have shown in their "cheaper" races. And, MUCH more often than not...the "cheaper" horses are unable to reproduce the lofty figures that they were able to run at the lower class level. Something prevents them from reproducing their best speed/pace figures at the higher class level...and this obstacle often has NOTHING to do with "pace". Now...I'm not a proponent of the theory that the "classier" horses scare the 'cheaper' ones by staring them in the eye, and what ultimately ends up defeating these "outclassed" horses may very well be nothing more than "trainer intention"...but "class" is a real determining factor out there...even if it exists only in the trainer's mind.

Now, look. I know that I can get a little abrasive here at times...but I don't particularly like the "polite" conversational style...where we all voice our handicapping opinions, without arguing about the possible mistakes in judgement that we all make from time to time. I like to ARGUE with people when my handicapping opinion differs from theirs...and I spend considerable time trying to explain in detail what my argument is...in order for this to become a "learning experience" for those who may not be as "experienced" in the game as some of the rest of us are. And I don't consider my arguments to be "insulting"...because I go to great lengths to avoid the harsh language that insults are made of.

I disagree with you when you say, as you did to TLG in post #6...that a horse's class rise is offset by a lofty speed and pace figure earned in a lesser race. And I explained to you why I disagree in my first paragraph here. To me..."class" cannot be offset by lofty speed/pace figures in lesser races...and my notebooks are FULL of examples that I would just LOVE to share with you. Because, as I already said...I believe that "arguments" of this type become great "learning experiences"...for ALL of us here.

And...I am not "sensitive" in the LEAST...so, you are welcomed to reply to me in any way that you choose. You can even choose NOT to reply to me at all...and my feelings would never get hurt, either way.
Sorry but saying that, just because of a simple mistake in reading figures once, I cannot tell the difference between the class level of Finger Lakes and Belmont/Saratoga is both wrong and insulting. I'd have to be totally ignorant to not know that difference.
I probably have had about as many years of handicapping experience as you (over 60 years) and I have found that when horses fail to reproduce good figures when going up in class it is mainly because they cannot deal with the faster pace when going up in class. The exceptions, as you admit are really due to trainer intentions. That is a separate factor that has nothing to do with
the horse being "outclassed" as the cause of the horses' declining performance.
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Old 09-22-2018, 05:05 PM   #75
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Of course, it just depends how you define comfortable. In cases like the Wednesday race the other jockeys were just too passive. This isn't uncommon on the NYRA circuit where the checks are so big for placings that winning isn't always a priority IMO.
Cj...would you please clarify something for me?

In post #6 of this thread...bobphilo erroneously reported to TLG that the winner of Wednesday's Belmont race had or shared the highest TFUS speed/pace figures in the group. "I agree with all of this" you responded to him in post #8...even though bobphilo later admitted that he was WRONG in his speed/pace assessment of this particular race. There were other horses in that race who held HIGHER speed figures than Cartwheelin Lulu. Why didn't you correct bobphilo's obvious mistake then and there...instead of "agreeing with all of this"?

Also...TLG's response to me on that matter (post #39) seems to be a complete contradiction to the point that bobphilo has been trying to make in this thread. And yet, as evidenced by that same post #8...you seem to agree with BOTH bobphilo AND TLG on this issue...even through the two of them seem to hold totally different pre-race views about this particular horse. When I asked TLG of his pre-race opinion of Cartwheelin Lulu...he responded: "Fringe player at best. I would never use her in my play, for whatever that is worth, and highly doubt that she would hit the board if they ran the race again, especially on a fair/even track." As you can see...TLG is saying the OPPOSITE of what bobphilo is asserting here...and yet...you seem to be in agreement with BOTH of them!

How can that BE?
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