HONG KONG / ShaTin - SUN 9/25

[Nitro]

Sha Tin
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with BIG fields in ALL of the 10 races (2 on AWT & 8 on TURF)

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM AM EST

TVG is back in the game and offering live video.

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

Just so that there’s misunderstanding, I post my best selections for each race in order of preference.
I’m not posting bets!
My top 2 selections are my Keys. They can be played individually or Dutched (even the top 3) if the value is there. I will also use them as Keys in Quinellas, and Triples. Keying entries in exotics means that they have to at least be in the money with the other picks. I may not even be playing a race if it offers no value. Fortunately most races do.
I don’t make every bet and I certainly don’t play every race.

Good luck if you’re playing!

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[I]1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher).

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher).

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

[Nitro]

I won’t be posting live selections at Hong Kong any longer for a number of reasons.
But I took a look at the M/L’s and the early odds and came up with some preliminary picks for each race. The live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. Later tote action (by 5 mins to post) may cause Key pick alterations.
The most competitive race seems to be races #7, #8 & #9.

R#1 – 1200M (6F) Turf - 5-1 W/ 7-10-13-11......1:00 AM EST

R#2 - 1600M (8F) Turf - 8-1 W/ 6-4-3-5............1:30 AM EST

R#3 - 1400M (7F) Turf - 4-11 W/ 3-14-12-5.......2:00 AM EST

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf – 7-4 W/ 3-8-10-12.........2:30 AM EST

R#5 - 1200M (6F) AWT – 11-9 W/ 6-4-2-1.........3:00 AM EST

R#6 - 1400M (7F) Turf - 1-2 W/ 4-10-5-11.........3:35 AM EST

R#7 - 1200M (6F) AWT - 3-2 W/ 4-5-8-11..........4:05 AM EST

R#8 - 1200M (6F) Turf - 4-12 W/ 2-1-5-8............4:35 AM EST

R#9 - 1600M (8F) Turf - 4-1 W/ 8-14-11-6..........5:10 AM EST

R#10 - 1400M (7F) Turf - 5-1 W/ 6-4-14-10.........5:45 AM EST

[Nitro]

Also Live Video on:

http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

[kevb]

Hello HK 'cappers.

[kevb]

I see Joe Moreira is back. Even money on the that finished 6th at 53-1 last time. Can't ignore.

[woodbinepmi]

Evening Kevb, going to try and stay up, but it will be hard. Have been working a ton after the floods we got here in Baton Rouge, have not been able to put in the time I normally do for the races lately.

[kevb]

R1:

WP

Q Box

[kevb]

Baton Rouge!? I always assumed Toronto or there abouts. Sorry to hear about the flood damage. A real mess to clean up. I hope you clean up at the HK betting windows.

[woodbinepmi]

Used to only play Woodbine, but got tired of the synthetic racing. The flood was REAL bad here, much worse than the flooding of Katrina. We don't believe that the rest of the country realizes how bad it was. The path is about 60 miles wide and 80 miles long, everything is gone. I lost my house and a car, there are 10 feet piles of trash in front of every house. It has devastated this area, like a bomb being dropped on us. On the brighter side, I have a granite fabrication company and we are going to be busy for the next 10 months.

Good hit in the first. You have some house money to play with now.

[kevb]

Yes, playing with house money now.

R2:

Paceless race, blinks on the . If not now, when?

WP

[lamboguy]

TVG only takes up to race 7 there. i have accounts with the other 2 places but the rebates aren't even close for that place. its very tough to give up more than 15% juice in any type of parimutuel gambling. its basic suicide.

i have found that low rebate tracks just dangle a carrot at you with their pools and tempt you to come at them to try for the big score.

in Hong Kong you can bet $20,000 to win without budging the board, but how do you know the way the wind is blowing that night and who is going to get cover in a race. the racing there is pretty random and very tough for me to know anything about 8000 miles away. that is why i have a lot of respect for, h Nitro, he reads the sharp money even though it looks like he has to take giant spreads to cash bets. bottom line, if he doesn't post here, i don't play Hong Kong. at least his numbers give you some type of a guide as to what is live over there. when i was playing there i waited for Nitro's 6 or 7 numbers in the race, if the horse i handicapped was one of his numbers i played the race, if they weren't i just passed. for the short period of time that i went into those pools i still didn't win, but i didn't get killed either. came very close to break even though after the rebate.

[kevb]

R3:

WP . History of poor starts, if he gets off poorly today, then place chance only, but a new trainer, and they take off all of the gear that wasn't working.


plus a little funny money
WP . Nice price and a good one 4 back

[kevb]

R4:

Gotta go for a couple of bombs here.

WP

really caught Jenny's eye, and he was bet a bit in his second start like he had some ability. Flashed speed for the first time and stopped last race. I like to bet unexpected speed in their next races.

should be closing in a good paced race.

[kevb]

The favorite is very washy.

Q Box

[kevb]

Ouch