 |
|
09-15-2016, 12:46 PM
|
#1
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS
I NOW HAVE 181 FACTOR SIZED SHOW BETS RETURNING A 0.99 ROI
IT SEEMS THE BEST PERFORMING BET SIZE IS THE OLD RELIABLE "FACTOR"
IT RETURNES A 0.99 ROI COMPARED TO A FLAT BET ROI OF 0.92, A 108% INCREASE
I ALSO HAVE 566 FACTOR SIZED WIN BETS RETURNING A 0.96 ROI COMPARED TO A FLAT BET ROI OF 0.82, A 117% INCREASE
THESE ARE LIVE PLAYS,GENERATED ABOUT 2 TO 3 MINUETS TO POST TIME.
IF ANYONE HAS A WIN BET ROI OF 0.95 ROI TO 0.99 AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MY FACTOR BET SIZE CAN IMPROVE THEIR RESULTS CONTACT ME HERE.
ps. these plays are limited to mostly post time favorites
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-15-2016 at 12:52 PM.
|
|
|
|
09-15-2016, 03:07 PM
|
#2
|
|
PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,624
|
Sounds like something like this would be pretty useful if you were getting a nice rebate.
|
|
|
|
|
09-15-2016, 03:50 PM
|
#3
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
based on nyra rewards
"Points expire one year from the date they were earned on a first in, first out basis. Points are not earned for any bets resulting in a minimum $2.10 payout"
a deal breaker 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-16-2016, 05:35 AM
|
#4
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,552
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by formula_2002
I NOW HAVE 181 FACTOR SIZED SHOW BETS RETURNING A 0.99 ROI
IT SEEMS THE BEST PERFORMING BET SIZE IS THE OLD RELIABLE "FACTOR"
IT RETURNES A 0.99 ROI COMPARED TO A FLAT BET ROI OF 0.92, A 108% INCREASE
I ALSO HAVE 566 FACTOR SIZED WIN BETS RETURNING A 0.96 ROI COMPARED TO A FLAT BET ROI OF 0.82, A 117% INCREASE
THESE ARE LIVE PLAYS,GENERATED ABOUT 2 TO 3 MINUETS TO POST TIME.
IF ANYONE HAS A WIN BET ROI OF 0.95 ROI TO 0.99 AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF MY FACTOR BET SIZE CAN IMPROVE THEIR RESULTS CONTACT ME HERE.
ps. these plays are limited to mostly post time favorites
|
Is this ROI expectation based on a reasonable test sample? I can't help but remember when you reported that you had uncovered a profitable baccarat betting system...
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
|
|
|
|
|
09-16-2016, 07:05 AM
|
#5
|
|
Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
|
I know your software is home grown---I have a Bris data program that nails just under a $1.00 ROI total to include every track in the country all year long (AVGS--OF COURSE)
I'm thinking I could forward the plays "live"---you test as long as you feel necessary--and see if we have something--NCG
|
|
|
|
|
09-16-2016, 09:23 AM
|
#6
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Is this ROI expectation based on a reasonable test sample? I can't help but remember when you reported that you had uncovered a profitable baccarat betting system...
|
I would like to see the results over the next 500 plays. Guys who write about this kind of stuff (efficiency of horse racing markets) study thousands of races.
regarding my baccarat betting system, I still find it interesting,
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...light=baccarat
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-16-2016 at 09:30 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
09-16-2016, 09:28 AM
|
#7
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
I know your software is home grown---I have a Bris data program that nails just under a $1.00 ROI total to include every track in the country all year long (AVGS--OF COURSE)
I'm thinking I could forward the plays "live"---you test as long as you feel necessary--and see if we have something--NCG
|
that sounds like an interesting offer. I would love to work with it, especially when it picks the favorite, which is where much of my picks are,
Thanks
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-16-2016, 11:39 AM
|
#8
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
IT MAY BE THAT THE MOST PROFITABLE WPS PLAYS OCCURR WHEN THE FACTOR IS <=11 AND THE BET SIZE IS =1/FACTOR
IN ONE DATA BASE OF 191 PLAYS, THAT OCURRS 48 TIMES
WIN %=33%
PLACE %= 59%
SHOW % = 71%
THE SUM OF EACH OF THE WPS PLAYS HOVER AROUND THE 1.00 ROI
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-16-2016, 03:18 PM
|
#9
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Home
Posts: 342
|
What is "THE FACTOR"?
|
|
|
|
|
09-16-2016, 03:35 PM
|
#10
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fox
What is "THE FACTOR"?
|
its a formula I devised using the wps and exacta tote board data.
cannot say more than that, else I let the genie out of the lamp
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-18-2016, 12:38 PM
|
#11
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
571 races flat bet win roi = 0.84
factor bet size win roi =0.96
here is a new sweet spot in the data
106 races where the factor>=100
flat bet roi =0.95
factor bet roi =1.02
I would like to see the roi's evenly distributed over segmented groups of factor size, or a slight increase in roi's as the factor size increases.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-18-2016, 12:56 PM
|
#12
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
here is the good news and the bad
factor size range 90 to 99, 0.89 flat bet roi, 0.87 roi 15 races
100 to 199 0.68, 0.67, 44 races
200 to 299 1.14, 1.15, 27 races
300 to 301 1.28, 1.24 , 15 races
400 (cap size) 1.04, 1.04, 20 races
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-18-2016, 02:13 PM
|
#13
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by formula_2002
here is the good news and the bad
factor size range 90 to 99, 0.89 flat bet roi, 0.87 roi 15 races
100 to 199 0.68, 0.67, 44 races
200 to 299 1.14, 1.15, 27 races
300 to 301 1.28, 1.24 , 15 races
400 (cap size) 1.04, 1.04, 20 races |
44 wins in 62 races = 71% winners
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-19-2016, 08:35 AM
|
#14
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
|
I found wants when I played these favorites like this that if you actually had kept the races and don't just rely on the software you can move up your number tremendously. Often times your software will spit out horses that are hopelessly in Speed duels ect ect
|
|
|
|
|
09-19-2016, 05:49 PM
|
#15
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by teddy
I found wants when I played these favorites like this that if you actually had kept the races and don't just rely on the software you can move up your number tremendously. Often times your software will spit out horses that are hopelessly in Speed duels ect ect
|
Hi. I don't handicap the horses, I'm handicapping the public's $$ in the
straight and exacta pools.
after over 40 years, I have found out I'm not a very good handicapper 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
