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05-02-2009, 09:05 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 328
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More shocking?
Don't rush to judgment. Consider the competition, the pace, the conditions.
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05-02-2009, 09:08 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,005
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giacomo.
no one really stood out today becuase of the 2 big defections... in 2006 there were standouts, they just got beat fair and square. no bad track, no nothing.
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05-02-2009, 09:11 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,736
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Without a doubt Mine that Bird. Giacomo, a dead closer, won in a photo after a wicked pace. Mine that Bird won by a wider margin than Barbaro. Giacomo finished a close 4th in the SA derby, mtb finished 4th in the sunland derby.
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05-02-2009, 09:14 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by W2G
Don't rush to judgment. Consider the competition, the pace, the conditions.
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Easily MTB....especially because of the connections....that trainer's stats or lack thereof make it not even close IMHO
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05-02-2009, 09:15 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,352
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ghostyapper
Without a doubt Mine that Bird.
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Ditto. Mine That Bird is one of those "joke" horses you see every year, and you wonder why the connections are so hyped to visit the Derby just to see their horse run 18th. No one ever said Giacomo didn't belong in the race. He just looked like an established 2nd tier horse.
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05-02-2009, 09:16 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by toussaud
giacomo.
no one really stood out today becuase of the 2 big defections... in 2006 there were standouts, they just got beat fair and square. no bad track, no nothing.
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Wasnt 2006 Barabaro? i think Giacamo was 2005 wasnt it?
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05-02-2009, 09:16 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,829
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Giacomo at least had the credentials of a solid trainer and finishing in the top 3 in a couple of graded stakes races, and also was no more than 3-1 in any of his 3 Derby prep races. If he hadn't finished behind General John B in the SA Derby, he would have been no more than 10-1 in KY.
Mine That Bird was a Canadian champ with a lifetime high Beyer of 81...that wouldn't win most entry level allowance races at any major track in the country.
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05-02-2009, 09:19 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,962
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Since I bet Giacomo in the futures for like $20 way back when; and conversely if you asked me this January who Mine that Bird was, I would have answered "don't know; a 5 claimer at Penn I think I bet once while drunk", the answer is an easy one for me 
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05-02-2009, 09:29 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by W2G
Don't rush to judgment. Consider the competition, the pace, the conditions.
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here is another factor...no offense to these owners and I am very jealous of them and happy for them---however, when looking at their moves with this horse, one wouldnt predict success-they apparently bought the horse late last year for 400K which seems like a huge amount-then, they gave him to this trainer whose stats are astonishing....compare this owner trainer combo with Moss and Sherrifs.... not even close and that is another reason it is a bigger upset
Last edited by Relwob Owner; 05-02-2009 at 09:30 PM.
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05-02-2009, 09:48 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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I've said before and I'll say it again: Top to bottom, Giacomo's win was MUCH more unlikely than I've ever seen. Giacomo was a decent horse at best. On a fast track, him winning that race was a joke. The race was broken down and it fell into his lap. Someone had to be in the right place at the right time.
He got beat by a combined 27.5 lengths in the next two races. This race was slop with top two favorites defecting and good california first timers in mud ...
Next question.
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05-02-2009, 10:01 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
I've said before and I'll say it again: Top to bottom, Giacomo's win was MUCH more unlikely than I've ever seen. Giacomo was a decent horse at best. On a fast track, him winning that race was a joke. The race was broken down and it fell into his lap. Someone had to be in the right place at the right time.
He got beat by a combined 27.5 lengths in the next two races. This race was slop with top two favorites defecting and good california first timers in mud ...
Next question.
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I would strongly disagree....you are using Giacamo;s performance after the Derby, which is impossible to use as a reason because MTB has no post Derby experience. Next, compare and explain...
Beyers before the race-advantage Giacamo
Competition before the race-advantage Giacamo
Trainers and their stats.experience-advantage Giacamo
Owners and their stats/experience-advantage Giacamo
I do understand the slop angle and the unpredictability it created but other than that dont think it is close.
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05-02-2009, 10:21 PM
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#12
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,064
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Any unit of measure is that everybody and their cousin was redboarding about having Giacomo that year (and ever since); I just logged on and haven't read everything yet, but it's hard to imagine that happening in this case.
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05-02-2009, 10:23 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 3,898
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by rastajenk
Any unit of measure is that everybody and their cousin was redboarding about having Giacomo that year (and ever since); I just logged on and haven't read everything yet, but it's hard to imagine that happening in this case.
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Good point....only seen one so far
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05-02-2009, 10:25 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 373
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ryesteve
Ditto. Mine That Bird is one of those "joke" horses you see every year, and you wonder why the connections are so hyped to visit the Derby just to see their horse run 18th. No one ever said Giacomo didn't belong in the race. He just looked like an established 2nd tier horse.
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Agree.
Last edited by oddsmaven; 05-02-2009 at 10:30 PM.
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05-02-2009, 10:45 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Relwob Owner
I would strongly disagree....you are using Giacamo;s performance after the Derby, which is impossible to use as a reason because MTB has no post Derby experience. Next, compare and explain...
Beyers before the race-advantage Giacamo
Competition before the race-advantage Giacamo
Trainers and their stats.experience-advantage Giacamo
Owners and their stats/experience-advantage Giacamo
I do understand the slop angle and the unpredictability it created but other than that dont think it is close.
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I'm using Giacomo's performance after the Derby because it shows why he was 50-1 IN THE DERBY. Given that on an honest track he ran better than clearly better horses, I can easily say this. The reason this isn't that unbelievable is that we don't normally handicap slop. That's why this year is not that surprising. What's more surprising? 50:1 slop or 50:1 fast track. Come on, no question.
How Afleet Alex didn't finish higher than Giacomo is more of a stumper than this horse winning this race. But that proves the point. IT'S 1 RACE.
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