HIDDEN SCROLL - Page 6 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

f2tornado · 03-26-2019, 10:36 AM

Scroll, Bourbon, and Code will probably all be in that 2-1 to 3-1 range. Harvey and Security will take some money too. None are a great win bet to me however I don't have a stronger opinion on this bunch. I didn't like how slow Code of Honor ran the final half panel in FOY. I liked how well Bourbon closed in same race but don't like how he failed to get up when the pace dynamics fell in his lap. Those types of horses burn a lot of money. I do think Scroll will get a better ride this time but at 5/2 or so I'm inclined to pass. I've yet to find a compelling bomber either. Maybe a weak case for Everfast.

Blenheim · 03-26-2019, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Scroll, Bourbon, and Code will probably all be in that 2-1 to 3-1 range. Harvey and Security will take some money too. None are a great win bet to me however I don't have a stronger opinion on this bunch. I didn't like how slow Code of Honor ran the final half panel in FOY. I liked how well Bourbon closed in same race but don't like how he failed to get up when the pace dynamics fell in his lap. Those types of horses burn a lot of money. I do think Scroll will get a better ride this time but at 5/2 or so I'm inclined to pass. I've yet to find a compelling bomber either. Maybe a weak case for Everfast.

Enter the Principle of Maximum Confusion. This holds that the public is most likely to underestimate the true winning probabilities of favorites in races where the past-performance record of the favorites is highly similar to one or more other horses. The intuitive rationale for the principle is the crowd's superior handicapping; that is, there must be some reason or reasons not immediately obvious for the public to make one horse its choice, notwithstanding its similarity to other horses. Yet the public is sufficiently confused that it bets too much money on the similar horses. Thus, its favorite is underbet. The public's confusion is held to be the maximal if enough other horses look enough like the favorite to make the favorite a good bet. (Quinn, 2003)

Parson · 03-27-2019, 12:51 PM

Just heard he drew the rail for the FL derby. anyone know where the draw results are?

Dahossdaboss · 03-27-2019, 01:02 PM

No excuses for him but the rail means they pretty much have to go. It also means he can’t break a step slow again.

Parson · 03-27-2019, 01:10 PM

Hidden Scroll

Current

Harvey Wallbanger

Bourbon War

Everfast

Hard Belle

Maximum Security

Bodexpress

Code Of Honor

Union's Destiny

Garter and Tie

classhandicapper · 03-27-2019, 02:52 PM

This horse obviously has a load of talent. His undoing last time was not relaxing off the lead. You would hope they are trying to teach him to do that, but with the rail they may feel temped to "go" again. That may or may not maximize his chances of winning depending on what else happens, but it's not going to help him learn to rate so he can get 10F.

Robert Fischer · 03-27-2019, 03:38 PM

It's the Florida Derby... 9F gate configuration near 1st turn...

You HAVE to go/break if you are any type of forwardly placed horse, because of the short run to the first turn.

If a horse/jock has any class, he then begins to settle into a cruise the moment he has seized the initiative regarding that first turn.

If he accelerates through the turn to the backstretch, it's either an incompetent ride or an unrateable horse.

the Rail is GIFT - unless he's 'pinched'

Now he gets a second chance to prove that he isn't Mendelssohn2.0.

It's a long shot, but he could be a great horse. He probable deserves to be one of the 20 in the gate for the Derby.

I can't rule out that he's a win-contender for the Derby, but I don't see it as very likely.

Dahossdaboss · 03-27-2019, 03:47 PM

If the goal is to ultimately rate (which I have no idea, just guessing) the rail is the worst post he could have drawn. It means he has to go to the front. Drawing outside the other speed allows him to rate

Robert Fischer · 03-27-2019, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

If the goal is to ultimately rate (which I have no idea, just guessing) the rail is the worst post he could have drawn. It means he has to go to the front. Drawing outside the other speed allows him to rate

unless by 'rate' you mean a reversal of running style and stalking deep off the pace, there's no reason he can't rate into that first turn.

He has 3 slugs to his immediate right, and the turn comes up in about 12 seconds.

Just break, and then control the inside lane while using absolutely no horse and having a great forwardly placed position entering the backstretch cruising in the pocket, 2nd-flight behind any speed.

Castellano fits like a glove. Mott and Castellano know Gulfstream like the back of their hand.

Dahossdaboss · 03-27-2019, 05:46 PM

The presence of the Meijia entrant that will be a few hundred to 1 to his outside means he’ll be under the gun from the inside. Not a big deal, but also not ideal if the goal is to have him relax off of horses.

I think he wins big, but I disagree the draw helps. He would’ve been better off drawing outside the other speeds.

f2tornado · 03-27-2019, 07:14 PM

The rail is often golden at that track and JC is as competent as you get there. Potential wire job. I think I will key him on top but certainly not with both fists and see what happens.

Immortal6 · 03-27-2019, 10:46 PM

Big days at GP always seem to be speed favoring but that doesn’t mean HS has the goods to get it done. Until I see proof he can actually relax and still produce a good closing kick in the stretch he is unbettable at short odds. Sure he could break well, settle into the first turn and relax a length or two off whichever horse takes to the lead in the backstretch before pulling away in the stretch to win by open lengths... but how could you bet on that exact scenario happening at 2-1 odds?

mountainman · 03-27-2019, 11:20 PM

The notion that any second time starter having crushed his mdn in super-sonic, frontrunning fashion would somehow have been tractable enough to concede the lead, rate kindly, and pass anybody in his stakes debut-with distance added, for good measure- strikes me as just short of ridiculous.

It's common assumption at mnr's simulcast parlor that a more judicious ride would have resulted in smashing victory. But, perhaps in the minority, I maintain that the aggressive send gave Hidden Scroll his best chance to win. Of course those blistering splits did the horse in. But by what crystal ball could Hidden Scroll's jock have foreseen his longshot speed-foe hanging in there so hard and for so long?? For all he knew into and around the first turn, his brilliantly rapid mount was a mere 5 or 6 strides from seizing the lead and forcing his RIVAL to rate. And surely, the chances of THAT seemed greater than of the incredibly fast Hidden Scroll tacking on distance, moving straight into a major stakes, and pulling of some kind of "Affirmed" impersonation-on just one starts worth of experience.

Dahossdaboss · 03-30-2019, 07:12 PM

I’d be interested in knowing who made the decision to drag Hidden Scroll back to 3rd behind a slow pace.

GMB@BP · 03-30-2019, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahossdaboss

I’d be interested in knowing who made the decision to drag Hidden Scroll back to 3rd behind a slow pace.

I would say public scrutiny of going to fast last time, he wasnt going to be on the lead no matter what they pace was.