proportional show betting negative pool = guaranteed profit??

[green80]

One question: when one goes up to window to bet all entries
proportionally totalling $100K, does $$ need to be counted by
teller in advance of revealing-placing bet??????????


Yes, the big bets would have to be made online in the last seconds. There is no way for the bettor at the track to know about these last minute bets as it would not show up on the toteboard until the horses have left the gate.

[green80]

Originally Posted by Actor

But two other horses will also show and you could still make a profit on the race.

Interesting idea! I'll have to play around with it.

not really, suppose your other horses pay 2.20 or 2.10 to show also.

[Prairie Bettor]

Originally Posted by ribjig

Say, $100K/race invested = 2% profit/race = $2K profit per race
2 races = $4K, 3 races = $6K, expenses = ?$300-500 airfare+hotel+meals?

Maybe two or three racetrack visits weekly nationwide?

2.5 tracks x 2.5 races/track x $2K/race = $12.5K gross
minus 2.5 tracks x $400/track expenses = $11.5K net weekly!!!!

Wow. There are so many holes in that 11k profit. lol

I'll just throw out just one. You mentioned airfare. You are planning on flying with 100k on you? OMG! You do realize you will have to take it out to get through security, right? I took 5k to Vegas a few weeks ago and got questioned a little. 100k? idk. Plus people will see you take it out, you now have a target on your back. Where you going to hold it? Won't fit in your billfold.

[Actor]

Originally Posted by ribjig

False, false, false.
Look at real world show payoffs in this thread & elsewhere.
Betting PROPORTIONALLY correctly guarantees no loss at all.
There is also some breathing room for very small last second
show bets by public. The greatest risk is last second big bet
on longshot show. Last second big show bet on heavy favorite
has no effect on $2.20 or $2.10 minimum & would actually boost
longshot show payoffs if heavy favorite runs out of money...

You're right.

Originally Posted by green80

not really, suppose your other horses pay 2.20 or 2.10 to show also.

If there's a negative pool then a lot of money has been bet on one horse to show. That will drive the payoff for the other horses up, probably north of $3.

[baconswitchfarm]

Originally Posted by Prairie Bettor

Wow. There are so many holes in that 11k profit. lol

I'll just throw out just one. You mentioned airfare. You are planning on flying with 100k on you? OMG! You do realize you will have to take it out to get through security, right? I took 5k to Vegas a few weeks ago and got questioned a little. 100k? idk. Plus people will see you take it out, you now have a target on your back. Where you going to hold it? Won't fit in your billfold.

. The airport is quite possibly the smallest of the problems that this plan possesses.

[Some_One]

A couple of examples assuming using the final Show% totals (I know it'll be slightly different when making the bet at 2 MTP, but I only have final data).

First the SB CT Classic where SB ran out with 89.8% of the show pool, if you proportional bet to show based on the final percentages, returned a loss of 16%.

Secondly, AP's Ark Derby where AP won with 73.8% of the show pool returned a loss of 5%

[TucsonGreyhound]

Originally Posted by Some_One

A couple of examples assuming using the final Show% totals (I know it'll be slightly different when making the bet at 2 MTP, but I only have final data).

First the SB CT Classic where SB ran out with 89.8% of the show pool, if you proportional bet to show based on the final percentages, returned a loss of 16%.

You're doing it wrong.

[lamboguy]

i don't know how you figure or predict what is going to be in or out of these show pools at the end of the race.

my advice is to either play the horse with all the money on him, or handicap the race and bet against the money. i do both. also what i have found is that often times there is a horse that is the second best in the race that is more likely to show than the horse with all the money. since there are plenty of hedgers in the pools these days going against the bridge jump money you can get great show prices on the second best horse even if the top horse reaches the board. if he doesn't you get a bonus.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by Some_One

A couple of examples assuming using the final Show% totals (I know it'll be slightly different when making the bet at 2 MTP, but I only have final data).

First the SB CT Classic where SB ran out with 89.8% of the show pool, if you proportional bet to show based on the final percentages, returned a loss of 16%.

Secondly, AP's Ark Derby where AP won with 73.8% of the show pool returned a loss of 5%

Both of these examples, the favorite does not have enough money bet on it. You need a large enough negative show pool for it to work. You probably need the favorite to have about 95% of the show pool.

I used to have a spreadsheet that calculated show prices, although it was not 100% accurate due too unknown factors that affect net pool wagering prices. If I can find it I could play around with it and see when proportional betting would work.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Both of these examples, the favorite does not have enough money bet on it. You need a large enough negative show pool for it to work. You probably need the favorite to have about 95% of the show pool.

I used to have a spreadsheet that calculated show prices, although it was not 100% accurate due too unknown factors that affect net pool wagering prices. If I can find it I could play around with it and see when proportional betting would work.

Ok, I think I understand, you're trying to take advantage of the fact that extra money is put into the pool because of the min price rule, if you try doing this with an ADW (and maybe a race track would do this too), they'll probably shut down your account since the ADW that accepts the minus pool causing bet has to pay the difference. Mark Cramer found that out when his ADW threaten to shut him out after making a bridgejump a couple of years ago.

[ribjig]

Formula for betting each entry may be something like:

100 - (100 - % public-bet-on-entry)(NPF) = % you bet on entry

e.g.,
entry with 99% of public bet
100 - [(100 - 99)(NPF)]
entry with 1% of public bet
100 - [(100 - 1)(NPF)]

NPF = negative pool factor = don't know if NPF is combination
of factors specific to race, e.g., #entries, track takeout, etc.,
or just a number;
In one real-world result in other thread
NPF = 1 was too low when only longshots in money,
NPF = 2 showed profit whether $2.10 all or only longshots in money

MATHEMATICIANS? STATISTICIANS??

[baconswitchfarm]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Ok, I think I understand, you're trying to take advantage of the fact that extra money is put into the pool because of the min price rule, if you try doing this with an ADW (and maybe a race track would do this too), they'll probably shut down your account since the ADW that accepts the minus pool causing bet has to pay the difference. Mark Cramer found that out when his ADW threaten to shut him out after making a bridgejump a couple of years ago.

Correct. No one will eat the minus for you more than a couple times. So even if you figure this out you won't be able to do it. Maybe shut this idea down and jump over to the thread where the guy dreams the winner. That idea has more promise.

[ribjig]

> First the SB CT Classic where SB ran out with 89.8% of the show pool, if you proportional bet to show based on the final percentages, returned a loss of 16%.

=====
Yes, bridgejump-proportional-bet = entry-proportional-bet doesn't work.
Or (see post#27 this thread suggested formula) NPF = 1 doesn't work.
That's why I suggested NPF = 2, which did work in one real-world-results case.

Another point: the reason one can talk about this openly without fear
of others immitating, is because AFAICT, the more similar bets, the better.
More of the same kind of bets, strengthen -- only track loses...
Those that bet against it via longshot-only bets, will be profitting rarely
per race, & ultimately not in long run, IMO. See historical data for 1/2 or
less running out of money -- 1 in 18??

In fact, a group of bridgejumpers with, say,
$1m collectively could, theoretically, turn
EVERY RACE ON CARD
into profit-making negative pool event!!!!


Of course that would financially destroy racetracks so they
would be forced to make rule changes...

[ribjig]

> (see post#27 this thread suggested formula)

correction, see post #26 this thread...

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by ribjig

> (see post#27 this thread suggested formula)

correction, see post #26 this thread...

You're acting like you're the first person who ever thought of this idea. You're not. It doesn't work. You've got theory that doesn't work in practice. If it did work and tracks were eating minus show pools, that would be the end of show betting in short fields with heavy favorites.

The fact you asked if the money would have to be bet through the windows shows me you're new at this, and that's fine. This idea is a waste of time though.