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08-10-2018, 05:11 PM
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#1
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
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Saratoga Race 8
is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.
Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.
Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.
Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-10-2018, 06:58 PM
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#2
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.
Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.
Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.
Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.
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Good question. Would also like to see the printout/odds-data from anyone who has those.
I didn't personally notice the either way.
I can see that on the replay the (word was out that the barn run by Brown's former assistant had a runner today in the ) moved from 9/2 to 4/1 entering the gate, and then was flashed as 5/2 in the graphic as they hit the stretch (apparently 2.7-1 from final chart odds). Jorge Abreu is a class act and he went out on his own after working for Chad Brown. It's great to see him working with some of these horses that Brown recently had, and some of the same owners, and sometimes squaring-off against his former boss in the same races. Personally passed the race, but that would be interesting if the had a major cancel because of the break (as well as seeing how much money shifted to on a lesser note).
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-10-2018 at 07:01 PM.
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08-11-2018, 01:38 PM
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#3
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
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Today, race 2, the gets hammered to 4-5 late, never lifts a foot - not in contention at any point in the race. Off the board.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-11-2018, 03:54 PM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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would be cool if some of the guys here with odds data could post
Race 6 today - WHY the heck did the DERBY DATE drop in odds to 6/1?? I mean, I know he had a dream break on top of the field, and subsequently every chance to win, but we can't the break right? Who the heck pounded him late at the 'last second' before the gates opened? You had several interesting horses in there and the should have been 15/1.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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08-11-2018, 04:14 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
would be cool if some of the guys here with odds data could post
Race 6 today - WHY the heck did the DERBY DATE drop in odds to 6/1?? I mean, I know he had a dream break on top of the field, and subsequently every chance to win, but we can't the break right? Who the heck pounded him late at the 'last second' before the gates opened? You had several interesting horses in there and the should have been 15/1.
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Even though I played the horse, the drop surprised me also. I was thinking 8 - 10-1, not 6-1.
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08-11-2018, 04:21 PM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Boy they timed that one perfectly.
He was 8/1 as they were nearing the gate
^Went 'UP' to 9/1 as they loaded.
then the odds graphic drops off the replay video.
At the break he was 7/1 and then 6/1 mid-race.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Even though I played the horse, the drop surprised me also. I was thinking 8 - 10-1, not 6-1.
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I mean yea, he was a 'cool' play. Coach FTS and son of cool warrior Will Take Charge
I can see using or throwing a few bucks on a gut feeling. I was very surprised that it was a massive odds-impacting wager, and the timing of the odds displayed graphics was at best an awkward appearing coincidence.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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08-11-2018, 04:35 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I can see using or throwing a few bucks on a gut feeling. I was very surprised that it was a massive odds-impacting wager, and the timing of the odds displayed graphics was at best an awkward appearing coincidence.
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And in this game, I firmly believe in "coincidence's".
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08-11-2018, 04:37 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,291
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FWIW, the #6 was about 9-2 on my line.
And yes, I waited until I saw the first horse loaded into the gate before pulling the trigger.
But given the size of the pools at SAR - somehow I doubt my meager tickets were responsible for the odds drop. (More likely it was someone who bets at least 20X more than me.)
Also, FWIW, I didn't think he was getting a dream trip. In order for the horse to win the race outright I thought the best chance involved Saez keeping him a few paths off the rail. (Which didn't happen.)
-jp
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Last edited by Jeff P; 08-11-2018 at 04:40 PM.
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08-11-2018, 07:14 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
FWIW, the #6 was about 9-2 on my line.
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I don't want anyone to think I pulled 9-2 out of thin air.
Below is what I have in my database for 7f dirt races at SAR going back to 2012.
The first table has columns for W-P-S and displays what would have happened if the player had made a $2.00 W-P-S bet on every starter in the sample:
Code:
query start: 8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
query end: 8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
elapsed time: 0 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2_NYRA_DOMAIN.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK='SAR'
AND INTSURFACE=1
AND DIST = 1540
AND [DATE] >= #07-01-2012#
AND [DATE] <= #08-10-2018#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 3275.40 3258.00 3291.30
Bet -4122.00 -4122.00 -4122.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -846.60 -864.00 -830.70
Wins 262 516 771
Plays 2061 2061 2061
PCT .1271 .2504 .3741
ROI 0.7946 0.7904 0.7985
Avg Mut 12.50 6.31 4.27
The next table shows the above sample broken out by rank for a factor in JCapper called EarlyConsensus:
Code:
By: SQL-F09 Rank (EarlyConsensus)
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 109.30 514.00 1.2126 55 257 .2140 1.6835 11.33
2 -82.90 520.00 0.8406 47 260 .1808 1.4220 9.30
3 119.00 580.00 1.2052 41 290 .1414 1.1121 17.05
4 8.80 566.00 1.0155 39 283 .1378 1.0841 14.74
5 -240.60 506.00 0.5245 32 253 .1265 0.9950 8.29
6 -286.70 462.00 0.3794 19 231 .0823 0.6470 9.23
7 -134.40 366.00 0.6328 17 183 .0929 0.7308 13.62
8 -116.20 260.00 0.5531 7 130 .0538 0.4236 20.54
9 -128.00 166.00 0.2289 3 83 .0361 0.2843 12.67
10 -63.40 92.00 0.3109 1 46 .0217 0.1710 28.60
11 -46.00 46.00 0.0000 0 23 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 -28.00 28.00 0.0000 0 14 .0000 0.0000 0.00
13 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000 0.00
14 54.50 4.00 14.6250 1 2 .5000 3.9332 58.50
Imo, 7f is one of those distances where most players have a tendency to think early speed is suspect.
But the data over the past seven years for 7f on the dirt at SAR tells a different story.
I'm using a logisitic regression model that I developed myself.
Early speed is one of the factors in the model and the coefficients for the factors in the model are unique for each track-surface-dist --
Meaning that if the same race had been run at say 7f on the Tapeta at Woodbine:
I very well may have come up with 15-1 for the same horse.
But here, at 7f on the dirt at SAR, the model came up with 9-2.
I Hope I got most of that out in a way that makes sense,
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
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Last edited by Jeff P; 08-11-2018 at 07:27 PM.
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08-14-2018, 02:09 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.
Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.
Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.
Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.
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Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it
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08-14-2018, 03:57 PM
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#11
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it
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CJ posted some detailed 'flash-by-flash' timestamped tote info (tweeted by Ed Derosa /twitter) after that brazen Firenze Fire betting coup.
I don't know where to find that type of tote data, or I would check and post the 's data, as well as some of the others in this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
I don't want anyone to think I pulled 9-2 out of thin air.
Below is what I have in my database for 7f dirt races at SAR going back to 2012.
The first table has columns for W-P-S and displays what would have happened if the player had made a $2.00 W-P-S bet on every starter in the sample:
Code:
query start: 8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
query end: 8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
elapsed time: 0 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2_NYRA_DOMAIN.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK='SAR'
AND INTSURFACE=1
AND DIST = 1540
AND [DATE] >= #07-01-2012#
AND [DATE] <= #08-10-2018#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 3275.40 3258.00 3291.30
Bet -4122.00 -4122.00 -4122.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -846.60 -864.00 -830.70
Wins 262 516 771
Plays 2061 2061 2061
PCT .1271 .2504 .3741
ROI 0.7946 0.7904 0.7985
Avg Mut 12.50 6.31 4.27
The next table shows the above sample broken out by rank for a factor in JCapper called EarlyConsensus:
Code:
By: SQL-F09 Rank (EarlyConsensus)
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 109.30 514.00 1.2126 55 257 .2140 1.6835 11.33
2 -82.90 520.00 0.8406 47 260 .1808 1.4220 9.30
3 119.00 580.00 1.2052 41 290 .1414 1.1121 17.05
4 8.80 566.00 1.0155 39 283 .1378 1.0841 14.74
5 -240.60 506.00 0.5245 32 253 .1265 0.9950 8.29
6 -286.70 462.00 0.3794 19 231 .0823 0.6470 9.23
7 -134.40 366.00 0.6328 17 183 .0929 0.7308 13.62
8 -116.20 260.00 0.5531 7 130 .0538 0.4236 20.54
9 -128.00 166.00 0.2289 3 83 .0361 0.2843 12.67
10 -63.40 92.00 0.3109 1 46 .0217 0.1710 28.60
11 -46.00 46.00 0.0000 0 23 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 -28.00 28.00 0.0000 0 14 .0000 0.0000 0.00
13 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000 0.00
14 54.50 4.00 14.6250 1 2 .5000 3.9332 58.50
Imo, 7f is one of those distances where most players have a tendency to think early speed is suspect.
But the data over the past seven years for 7f on the dirt at SAR tells a different story.
I'm using a logisitic regression model that I developed myself.
Early speed is one of the factors in the model and the coefficients for the factors in the model are unique for each track-surface-dist --
Meaning that if the same race had been run at say 7f on the Tapeta at Woodbine:
I very well may have come up with 15-1 for the same horse.
But here, at 7f on the dirt at SAR, the model came up with 9-2.
I Hope I got most of that out in a way that makes sense,
-jp
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That is awesome stuff. I give you credit for valuing the early speed from that horse. A lot of players thought he may well make the lead, but didn't think he was enough horse to contend. 9-2 is really smart. I think maybe 8/1(my personal assignment, and I would assume that he'd be >10/1 in the public's eye in that field that featured some prospects) or so would have been my guess. If I could have bet after that dream-break 3/1 - 7/2.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-14-2018 at 04:10 PM.
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08-15-2018, 07:54 AM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it
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hes wrong ,i had a bet on the race and the horse was always 2-1.
the guy seems to exaggerate quite a bit.
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08-15-2018, 11:11 AM
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#13
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
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Quote:
Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash?
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Yeah, that is just exaggeration.
RIF.
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08-15-2018, 02:15 PM
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#14
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 248
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it seems like no one saw what you saw,maybe your just paranoid.
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08-15-2018, 02:22 PM
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#15
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sour grapes
it seems like no one saw what you saw,maybe your just paranoid.
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He thought he saw it. Flip a coin.
Instead of personal attacks, we should have access to the tote data, and look at the flash-by-flash prices.
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