UAE Derby failures

[GMB@BP]

Whats happened to the Wood is a bit inexplicable, its not just producing winners but I am not sure many horses are even running well in the Derby.

I am not sure what really can be done, the Florida Derby move really hurt that race.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

It’s not a curse... they just aren’t good enough.

Semantics.
Call it what you like.

One day a winner of the UAE Derby will win the roses.
Might be 10, or even 20, years from now, but it will happen.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Whats happened to the Wood is a bit inexplicable, its not just producing winners but I am not sure many horses are even running well in the Derby.

I am not sure what really can be done, the Florida Derby move really hurt that race.

I hate to have to type "random variance" so many times here, but come on.

The Wood produced the Preakness winner last year. It draws the best 3 year olds in New York, and New York is a major racing circuit. So it will produce Derby winners in the future. There's nothing wrong with the Wood other than the bad luck that we are in an era where other regions are producing more than their fair share of Derby winners.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I hate to have to type "random variance" so many times here, but come on.

The Wood produced the Preakness winner last year. It draws the best 3 year olds in New York, and New York is a major racing circuit. So it will produce Derby winners in the future. There's nothing wrong with the Wood other than the bad luck that we are in an era where other regions are producing more than their fair share of Derby winners.

fair enough, just feels like a long dryspell. i certainly understand small sample size.

and for the record I just handicap the horses in the race the same as anywhere else, if they fit I play them.

[TiffaniO]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Semantics.
Call it what you like.

One day a winner of the UAE Derby will win the roses.
Might be 10, or even 20, years from now, but it will happen.

And so will the winner of a 1x allowance at Santa Anita but should they award points for every allowance race because a horse running at that track and condition might someday win a Derby?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

fair enough, just feels like a long dryspell. i certainly understand small sample size.

and for the record I just handicap the horses in the race the same as anywhere else, if they fit I play them.

That's the right way to play it.

These "curses" are great for smart bettors if they draw money, for the same reason that a display at a roulette wheel that shows that 36 red has come up 7 times in the last 30 spins is good for a casino.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

And so will the winner of a 1x allowance at Santa Anita but should they award points for every allowance race because a horse running at that track and condition might someday win a Derby?

That's a ridiculous analogy.
It's an attempt at global marketing.
Like it, or not.

[TiffaniO]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

That's a ridiculous analogy.
It's an attempt at global marketing.
Like it, or not.

I realize that it’s global marketing... and one spot is fine... but hell Raaya could’ve ran if they wanted. That’s where my concern is... running 2nd in the race gets you 50 pts. Ridiculous.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

I realize that it’s global marketing... and one spot is fine... but hell Raaya could’ve ran if they wanted. That’s where my concern is... running 2nd in the race gets you 50 pts. Ridiculous.

Fair point.

I think having one qualifier between Europe and Dubai might be better, too.
The race they run in England has less prestige than the UAE Derby.
Keeping it on dirt at Meydan is preferable to AW at Lingfield or Kempton Park.

Why does Japan have a qualifier while Australia does not?
Money, I guess. Any Aussie horse would only be 2.5 years old as well.

[Tom]

We have plenty of point races right here all winter/spring.
If they want to EARN a spot in the Derby, come over here and EARN it in the track.

We should be cutting DOWN the number of starters, not encouraging full fields of crap.

No need for anything beyond the main starting gate.

Cut the points down in all races and MAKE starters truly earn their way by good placing in multiple races. W3e keep hearing about so and so on the bubble and so and so needs this race...well, is so and so was not a goat, he wouldn't BE in this spot today.

Isn't CD concerned about their turf course with so many goats on site every May?

[Denny]

"No need for anything beyond the main starting gate." - Tom

I totally agree with this. The last two Derbies saw the 14 post get clobbered by horses coming in from the outside gate.

Cut it to 14 - OR - make a bigger one-piece gate. (They have them in Europe and elsewhere.)

[Frost king]

While we are at it, you might as well also eliminate the Sunland Derby from the equation. That race is absolutely worthless.

[Frost king]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Fair point.

I think having one qualifier between Europe and Dubai might be better, too.
The race they run in England has less prestige than the UAE Derby.
Keeping it on dirt at Meydan is preferable to AW at Lingfield or Kempton Park.

Why does Japan have a qualifier while Australia does not?
Money, I guess. Any Aussie horse would only be 2.5 years old as well.

So you want to deny the two deepest pockets in the industry the ability to run a horse in the Derby on their terms? Good luck with that. That is why there are two spots awarded to the Europeans. The Aussies have never run horses here or have spent the money at the sales.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Frost king

While we are at it, you might as well also eliminate the Sunland Derby from the equation. That race is absolutely worthless.

Tell that to Mine That Bird!
Hasn't the SD produced more Derby winners in the last 10 years than the Wood?

[Denny]

The Sunland Derby also produced the runner-up to American Pharoah - Firing Line in 2015.

Not bad at all. Plus, it's a 50pt to winner race - not 100 like the UAE race - or the Wood, which hasn't had a Derby winner come out of it in 15 years - Funny Cide. It should be a 50 pointer along with the Louisiana and UAE and Sunland IMO.

The only reason they leave the Wood 100 is it's NY.