A Note About Mendelssohn That Deserves Its Own Thread

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Justify has been the poster child for “opportunity” lol

Can you imagine what Mendelssohn would have done to the fields Justify faced in his first 2 races ... And do you really think if Mendelssohn would have gotten the same match race type scenario against Bolt that Justify did do you think Mendelssohn would have been all out to win by a few lengths ?

No, your right....i think he would have lost

[Tom]

This so reminds me of the Fat Man when Invasor (he is the best!)won the Classic.......

[MNslappy]

We get one every year about this time, I love it. Never change Pace Advantage.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

We get one every year about this time, I love it. Never change Pace Advantage.

I get Derby fever.

But I am always left awestruck by those that reach masturbatory status with the race!

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by papillon

I've never seen Justify nor Mendelssohn in person. It is hard to judge how big they are vis a vis each other (on TV they 2 inches tall), and how nice they look vis a vis each other, but Coolmore and Spendthrift wanted Mendelssohn so badly the dueled it out. Spendthrift wanted him because of his relationship with Beholder and Into Mischief. Coolmore wanted him to replace Scat Daddy. As we see by the likely derby starting gate entants, there were no shortage of quality Scat Daddies and Into Mischiefs in this crop, but they wanted this one, $3 million dollars badly enough. That's nothing to sniff at or dismiss because of a golden rail.

Was able to snap a close-up of Mendelssohn in the parade ring. Beautiful animal.

[burnsy]

I'm throwing this horse in my numbers because he's won big races all over the map, on multiple surfaces, way more racing experience than both chalks and if people have not figured out, these people don't show up to stick a thumb up their asses.

After seeing those races Justify ran in, his competition, even the ones that shipped out of state (California). I'm not sold on the hype at all. In the Santa Anita Derby he beat a horse that has a million excuses without winning at the wire and a bunch of scrubs. I'm willing to pay to see him beat me. Every year somehow there's a new goof ball eating the hype. I wonder if its a "plant". Because most times when the horse gets beat they suddenly "disappear".......

I've got it down to 3 or 4 i like and this is one of them. The only way i could bet the top two in odds with drifting out stretch runs and little experience is if they were not chalk. I'm liking this race with Justify and Magnum Moon shaping up as chalk. Because i think 3 or 4 are looking better at a better price
and this is one of them.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I'm throwing this horse in my numbers because he's won big races all over the map, on multiple surfaces, way more racing experience than both chalks and if people have not figured out, these people don't show up to stick a thumb up their asses.

After seeing those races Justify ran in, his competition, even the ones that shipped out of state (California). I'm not sold on the hype at all. In the Santa Anita Derby he beat a horse that has a million excuses without winning at the wire and a bunch of scrubs. I'm willing to pay to see him beat me. Every year somehow there's a new goof ball eating the hype. I wonder if its a "plant". Because most times when the horse gets beat they suddenly "disappear".......

I've got it down to 3 or 4 i like and this is one of them. The only way i could bet the top two in odds with drifting out stretch runs and little experience is if they were not chalk. I'm liking this race with Justify and Magnum Moon shaping up as chalk. Because i think 3 or 4 are looking better at a better price
and this is one of them.

The hype derby horse has won 5 str years

[papillon]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

The hype derby horse has won 5 str years

Always Dreaming. I will give you Always Dreaming, he is like him: MSW, ALLOC, FL derby, ridiculous hype (except for unraced at 2, which may or may not be significant, but just shy of 120 years suggests it's is).

BUT:

Nyquist was the undefeated 2yo champ, BCJ winner on a 7 race winning streak, who had just easily put away the horse everyone was saying was the 2nd coming of whomever they thought was the 1st coming. Jeff Siegal was saying Mohamen was going to win the Triple crown.

American Pharoah had been the "It" horse since the summer before. Nothing but AP this, AP that for 8 months.

Chrome was a national phenomenon. He was the Princess Diana of horse racing.

Orb was a blue blooded horse, with sentimental ties to racing's storied past as a Phipps/Shug horse on a 5 race winning streak, and his odds weren't even all that impressive.

The winners last four years before Always Dreaming would have been silly not to have been the favorites, and would have been shocking if they lost, which American Pharoah almost did, but for 38 lashes and firing line's failure to change leads.

Justify likely will go off as the favorite, but he isn't a favorite like the four before Always Dreaming, and last year's crop was pretty clunky in retrospect. Do you see this year's competition as the same quality as Always Dreaming's competition?

The question is, has the public gotten it right due to astuteness, or has the real trend just been that four of the past five years have had a single horse who has dominated their crop?

Regardless of what you think about Justify, and apparently doubting him makes people trolls, Justify has not dominated his crop. He has beaten one horse of note, who hasn't won since September. How many KY derby bound horses have been pegged as true competition, who haven't won in 6 months and 3 races? Doesn't mean Bolt D'Oro isn't but, come on, he isn't Exagerator or Mohamen at this moment in time.

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by Wiley

Does he need too to win this Derby? Doubt it. I am not sold on Justify, short fields everything his way in only three races, so what. Mendy is intriguing to me and hope he comes into the race in good order with a decent post.

Secretariat did win his next race by 9, at AP, a fifth off the track record at a mile and an eighth. Yeah he lost to Onion and Prove Out after his Belmont, but later set a world record in the Marlboro for a mile and an eighth and a track record on the turf at Woodbine later in the year. No reason to think Mendy cannot improve off of that effort, even with the rail bias of Meydan.

He is a great moving colt who is a half to Beholder who herself ran an amazing runner up effort in her CD Oaks, I remember she was a mess pre race, threw her jock, ran on a fast pace and barely got run down late. Beholder was about as hard a trying mare as you will ever see.
I am giving Mendy a long look this year, hopefully he does not pull a Thunder Snow 'bucking bronco' show like last year.

So you think the only horse he's gotta beat is Justify?

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by papillon

Always Dreaming. I will give you Always Dreaming, he is like him: MSW, ALLOC, FL derby, ridiculous hype (except for unraced at 2, which may or may not be significant, but just shy of 120 years suggests it's is).

BUT:

Nyquist was the undefeated 2yo champ, BCJ winner on a 7 race winning streak, who had just easily put away the horse everyone was saying was the 2nd coming of whomever they thought was the 1st coming. Jeff Siegal was saying Mohamen was going to win the Triple crown.

American Pharoah had been the "It" horse since the summer before. Nothing but AP this, AP that for 8 months.

Chrome was a national phenomenon. He was the Princess Diana of horse racing.

Orb was a blue blooded horse, with sentimental ties to racing's storied past as a Phipps/Shug horse on a 5 race winning streak, and his odds weren't even all that impressive.

The winners last four years before Always Dreaming would have been silly not to have been the favorites, and would have been shocking if they lost, which American Pharoah almost did, but for 38 lashes and firing line's failure to change leads.

Justify likely will go off as the favorite, but he isn't a favorite like the four before Always Dreaming, and last year's crop was pretty clunky in retrospect. Do you see this year's competition as the same quality as Always Dreaming's competition?

The question is, has the public gotten it right due to astuteness, or has the real trend just been that four of the past five years have had a single horse who has dominated their crop?

Regardless of what you think about Justify, and apparently doubting him makes people trolls, Justify has not dominated his crop. He has beaten one horse of note, who hasn't won since September. How many KY derby bound horses have been pegged as true competition, who haven't won in 6 months and 3 races? Doesn't mean Bolt D'Oro isn't but, come on, he isn't Exagerator or Mohamen at this moment in time.

I like it, looking at it a very similar way.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by papillon

How many KY derby bound horses have been pegged as true competition, who haven't won in 6 months and 3 races? Doesn't mean Bolt D'Oro isn't but, come on, he isn't Exagerator or Mohamen at this moment in time.

Tejano Run
Timber Country
Sea Hero
Gato Del Sol
Giacomo
Alysheba
Best Pal
Blumin Affair
Cat Thief
Funny Cide
Super Saver
Saarland
Editor's Note
Captain Steve
Normandy Invasion

[SkunkApe]

Heh. This year’s “goof ball eating the hype” IS Mendelssohn.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by papillon

The question is, has the public gotten it right due to astuteness, or has the real trend just been that four of the past five years have had a single horse who has dominated their crop?

Regardless of what you think about Justify, and apparently doubting him makes people trolls, Justify has not dominated his crop. He has beaten one horse of note, who hasn't won since September. How many KY derby bound horses have been pegged as true competition, who haven't won in 6 months and 3 races? Doesn't mean Bolt D'Oro isn't but, come on, he isn't Exagerator or Mohamen at this moment in time.

Thou shalt not question the calculated variant at Santa Anita. It is written in the Book of Baffert. Thou shalt trust all speed figures. It is written in the Book of Beyer.

In the real world, Andrew Beyer is 0 fer infinity picking a Derby winner mostly based on his published figures. I gotta give the man credit standing behind his numbers even when he's a loser.

Best last out Brisnet figures largely suck picking the Derby winner as well. They're a whopping 5-29 but at least that's better than Beyer's 0 fer infinity. Heck, he even picked Pyro over Big Brown in spite of Big Brown having the highest 9F BSF that year.

Justify is just a few lengths from being identical to Dunkirk (2009) at this point and the Derby didn't go so well for him.

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Tom

Secretariat won by 31 and got beat next time out.
When a horse goes out alone like, it is not usually a sign of greatness, just opportunity.

I seriously doubt Mendy will run anything close that race ever again.

What do you base that on Tom?

So you're saying Secretariat wasn't a great horse?

[CincyHorseplayer]

It's funny how this is working. Mendelssohn had 5 races in 3 countries as a 2yo and a G1 win in the BC JT. Now has 2 wins in 2 countries on 2 different surfaces this year and the 2nd highest figure on Beyer and CJ's unofficial fig but somehow he's the fraud because of racing with a bias and in this particular race. I get that, I really do but even with that Justify having no races at 2, 1 stakes win, and in a race that can be chalked up to biased while loping along loose on an uncontested lead, deciding who is less fraudulent is easy. Justify hasn't done half of what Mendelssohn has done. The amount of drool and bias being applied is pathetic IMO. Even if you are right you get 3-1. Yay for you!