The value of BSFs

[ultracapper]

2nd race at Del Mar today has #3 Norski, a 9 race maiden, with a lifetime BSF low of 63. Of the 65 races the remainder of the field has ran, the highest BSF is a 58 by #10 Lucky Wally.

Someone will have to explain to me the value of calculating these speed figures for any kind of handicapping value if Norski doesn't win this race.

Edit: I'll back track a step. If one of the two first time starters wins, or the first time gelding improves a half a dozen lengths and wins, I could accept that.

[FakeNameChanged]

Darkhawk W/P/S
/ Exacta Box

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Darkhawk W/P/S
/ Exacta Box

Results:
W 7.40
P 12.80 S 9.80
S 9.20
Exacta-110.20
So how did the BSF's stack up? I did see in results that FTS won wtw.

[46zilzal]

Final time evaluation is parallel to having only the final chapter of a novel at your disposal: you HAVE NO IDEA what happened to the many ways that COULD HAVE created that final time, or final plot in the case of the novel.

[cj]

In addition to what 46 said, that horse was a classic suck up horse ripe for betting against. In addition to running 2nd or 3rd in seven times in nine starts, he's never really even been close to winning a race. He just likes to hang out in the pack and happens to pick up some pieces.

[ultracapper]

So the last two posts kind of make the point that his BSFs were meaningless.

No?

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

So the last two posts kind of make the point that his BSFs were meaningless.

No?

Ultra-sorry for hi-jacking your BSF thread, but that was my poorly implied meaning also. Speed figures not required, period. In the above example, pp's not required either. Carry on.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

So the last two posts kind of make the point that his BSFs were meaningless.

No?

There are race development and trip issues that impact the final times of the horses and there are accuracy issues due to wind, changing track speed, subjective analysis of the speed of the track, methodology differences etc..

IMO, problems occur when you take any figures too seriously as an accurate reflection of how well a horse ran instead as a more general "is this horse fast enough for this field" in light of how the race is likely to develop, the distance, surface, the direction of his form etc...

[thaskalos]

There are no "sure things" in this game...no matter which handicapping approach we use.

[GMB@BP]

As time goes by I move closer and closer to the line of thinking that speed figures are a useful tool to separate contenders from non contenders (maiden races excluded, figures are somewhat meaning less in those races), in terms of finding value it is very tough. Sure there is the outlier here and there where a top speed horse in a paceless races somehow goes off at a moderate price, or the consistently top figure horse runs off and wins a fair price but what happens is more times than not I land on the same horses with that method that everyone else is, and often times they are not winning at a high enough percentage to come out ahead.

Figures do separate horses, I will continue to use them for that purpose, but making selections based on pace prediction and figures seems like more and more a lost cause to + results.

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

As time goes by I move closer and closer to the line of thinking that speed figures are a useful tool to separate contenders from non contenders (maiden races excluded, figures are somewhat meaning less in those races), in terms of finding value it is very tough. Sure there is the outlier here and there where a top speed horse in a paceless races somehow goes off at a moderate price, or the consistently top figure horse runs off and wins a fair price but what happens is more times than not I land on the same horses with that method that everyone else is, and often times they are not winning at a high enough percentage to come out ahead.

Figures do separate horses, I will continue to use them for that purpose, but making selections based on pace prediction and figures seems like more and more a lost cause to + results.

Speed figures are only as good as the handicapper using them.

Look at the race the guy used as an example to start this thread. I mean, come on.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by JeremyJet

Speed figures are only as good as the handicapper using them.

Look at the race the guy used as an example to start this thread. I mean, come on.

"the guy"

funny

[Tom]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

So the last two posts kind of make the point that his BSFs were meaningless.

No?

No.

You need to learn a lot more about speed figures, like how to use them.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Tom

No.

You need to learn a lot more about speed figures, like how to use them.

Exactly. These chronic losers with superior figures going off below even money are the kinds of horses we live to bet against. It doesn't mean the figures are inaccurate, but that certain horses find a way to lose however possible.

[Tom]

I guess a good reply to figure doubters would be use the raw times and see how much better you do.