for your consideration.
If a horse is 3-1 in a 15% track take out the probability of winning is (1(/odds+1))x(1-.15).
1/(3+1)= .25
1-.15 = .85
.25x.85=.2125 (probability of winning)
.25/.2125 =1.176
A proper bet size =.2125 x your overlay calculation, which in this case needs for be At least .25/.2125 (=1.176), to break even w/o adjustment for breakage.
If you were to sum 1/(odds+1) for each horse in a 15% take out track, it would sum to the book %, which in this case is 1.176. that is theoretical.
I just summed 1/(odds+1) at two recent Aqueduct races, they summed to 1.20 and 1.20, which amounts to a 17% take out
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