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Old 09-23-2022, 03:46 PM   #4426
Rex Phinney
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The markets have TONS of room to go down....TONS...this is baby shit.

Do you realize the market is sitting at pretty much where it was the day Biden took office?

It hasn't even begun to go down yet...in the grand scheme of things.

Whether it will go down that much is another story. But it has PLENTY of room to do so...

This is all interest rate driven, how long do you think interest rates will rise?


The fed has to be getting close to one of two things, either the economy starts to struggle or inflation starts to come down. If either of those things happen (or both) the interest rate hikes will slow and stop.


Beyond that it's a question of earnings, how low will they go and what multiple people are willing to pay. This is the longer term question and in reality the one that matters.



I would never call a 25% drop in the S&P 500 "Baby Shit", the 3,000 level equates to about 40% decline in the S&P. I'd like to think that's as bad as it gets, but none really knows.
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Old 09-23-2022, 04:15 PM   #4427
lamboguy
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This is all interest rate driven, how long do you think interest rates will rise?


The fed has to be getting close to one of two things, either the economy starts to struggle or inflation starts to come down. If either of those things happen (or both) the interest rate hikes will slow and stop.


Beyond that it's a question of earnings, how low will they go and what multiple people are willing to pay. This is the longer term question and in reality the one that matters.



I would never call a 25% drop in the S&P 500 "Baby Shit", the 3,000 level equates to about 40% decline in the S&P. I'd like to think that's as bad as it gets, but none really knows.
if you don't know this by now i will repeat myself again as i have many time prior to this. THE JOB OF THE MARKETS ARE TO TAKE THE MOST AMOUNT OF MONEY AWAY FROM THE MOST AMOUNT OF PEOPLE IN THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME.

and then take more of it away
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Old 09-23-2022, 04:49 PM   #4428
BroadwayJoe
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney View Post
This is all interest rate driven, how long do you think interest rates will rise?


The fed has to be getting close to one of two things, either the economy starts to struggle or inflation starts to come down. If either of those things happen (or both) the interest rate hikes will slow and stop.


Beyond that it's a question of earnings, how low will they go and what multiple people are willing to pay. This is the longer term question and in reality the one that matters.



I would never call a 25% drop in the S&P 500 "Baby Shit", the 3,000 level equates to about 40% decline in the S&P. I'd like to think that's as bad as it gets, but none really knows.
Thx Rex for being the most level head in here....

S&P 600....PLEASE
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Old 09-23-2022, 05:05 PM   #4429
Rex Phinney
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if you don't know this by now i will repeat myself again as i have many time prior to this. THE JOB OF THE MARKETS ARE TO TAKE THE MOST AMOUNT OF MONEY AWAY FROM THE MOST AMOUNT OF PEOPLE IN THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME.

and then take more of it away

Yeah, all the people who are selling right now.
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Old 09-23-2022, 05:18 PM   #4430
Rex Phinney
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Thx Rex for being the most level head in here....

S&P 600....PLEASE

My biggest angle is as a dividend/ dividend growth investor. The lower the prices go the better the dividend yields are, so once a stock or fund gets low enough that I like the dividend it is paying I buy it. Whether it goes up or down doesn't particularly matter to me what matters is that the company is strong enough to pay the dividend and keep paying it and raising it.


Most those types of companies also happen to be great long term investments, so the long term growth part of it sort of works itself out.



SCHD is an ETF that is IMO the single best one money can buy. I fired $26,000 into that fund TODAY. This fund is full of 104 companies with the best history of raising their dividends and having the best balance sheet to support raises going forward. If it goes down next week I'll buy more. I like the fund to no end, so the cheaper it gets the better I feel about buying it.
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Old 09-23-2022, 05:26 PM   #4431
BroadwayJoe
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney View Post
My biggest angle is as a dividend/ dividend growth investor. The lower the prices go the better the dividend yields are, so once a stock or fund gets low enough that I like the dividend it is paying I buy it. Whether it goes up or down doesn't particularly matter to me what matters is that the company is strong enough to pay the dividend and keep paying it and raising it.


Most those types of companies also happen to be great long term investments, so the long term growth part of it sort of works itself out.



SCHD is an ETF that is IMO the single best one money can buy. I fired $26,000 into that fund TODAY. This fund is full of 104 companies with the best history of raising their dividends and having the best balance sheet to support raises going forward. If it goes down next week I'll buy more. I like the fund to no end, so the cheaper it gets the better I feel about buying it.
my thoughts exactly.....

beta on this is .86 which is less volatile than the market swings

might buy in on Monday

todays SP showed a support level turn around when it hit 3650

hopefully it an up trend after this
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Old 09-23-2022, 06:35 PM   #4432
Rex Phinney
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my thoughts exactly.....

beta on this is .86 which is less volatile than the market swings

might buy in on Monday

todays SP showed a support level turn around when it hit 3650

hopefully it an up trend after this

I doubt we will see a significant uptrend for a while, but I try to never bank on being right, so I'm fine with buying some up at these prices.
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Old 09-23-2022, 07:19 PM   #4433
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my thoughts exactly.....

beta on this is .86 which is less volatile than the market swings

might buy in on Monday

todays SP showed a support level turn around when it hit 3650

hopefully it an up trend after this
If you bought SCHD three days ago you would have received a dividend of 64 cents, payable on 9/26.

But you would have paid about $3 more per share.

SCHD is a very well-managed ETF with a low expense ratio, 0.05 cents.

Whatever you do, good luck the rest of the way, Bway.
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Old 09-23-2022, 09:13 PM   #4434
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If you bought SCHD three days ago you would have received a dividend of 64 cents, payable on 9/26.

But you would have paid about $3 more per share.

SCHD is a very well-managed ETF with a low expense ratio, 0.05 cents.

Whatever you do, good luck the rest of the way, Bway.
thx...we all need it

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Old 09-24-2022, 04:05 AM   #4435
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you guys are all Johnie come lately's at this. i am positive you don't know that this month only has 1 week to go in it and it is dangerously close to blowing up the 40 month moving averages. if that average doesn't hold up, you will see a cascade down like you have never seen before in your life and will never see one this bad again as long as you live. but you guys still think you can pile into some safe dividend-producing ETF and not lose all your money in it.

there is no such thing as "safe" in any market that trades back and forth. but of course, you would rather try to make fun of me for presenting very low and unimaginable numbers in your minds. and the great line you are going to say when this eventually happens is that it went this low because they raised interest rates and i made a lucky call.
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Old 09-24-2022, 07:09 AM   #4436
Richie
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you guys are all Johnie come lately's at this. i am positive you don't know that this month only has 1 week to go in it and it is dangerously close to blowing up the 40 month moving averages. if that average doesn't hold up, you will see a cascade down like you have never seen before in your life and will never see one this bad again as long as you live. but you guys still think you can pile into some safe dividend-producing ETF and not lose all your money in it.

there is no such thing as "safe" in any market that trades back and forth. but of course, you would rather try to make fun of me for presenting very low and unimaginable numbers in your minds. and the great line you are going to say when this eventually happens is that it went this low because they raised interest rates and i made a lucky call.
this is going to be a very interesting next few weeks
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Old 09-24-2022, 09:15 AM   #4437
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this is going to be a very interesting next few weeks
my guess is that the 40 month would have to break next week and close the month under the 40 month to create a downward spiral. if it doesn't happen next week it could happen next month or the next few months to come.
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Old 09-24-2022, 01:16 PM   #4438
Tape Reader
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my thoughts exactly.....


todays SP showed a support level turn around when it hit 3650
Contrary to popular belief when a support level is “broken” price is more likely to rally.

This is because by violating the time/space quadrant that price has been trading in, it “enlarges” the area thus allowing price to rally, to seek a new equilibrium.

Aristotle: Nature abhors a vacuum.
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Old 09-24-2022, 03:47 PM   #4439
BroadwayJoe
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WHAT!!!!

Dividend increase of 10% from Microsoft ...

Dont they know we are in a recession.....

Whats the deal with this...???
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Old 09-25-2022, 02:50 AM   #4440
Rex Phinney
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
you guys are all Johnie come lately's at this. i am positive you don't know that this month only has 1 week to go in it and it is dangerously close to blowing up the 40 month moving averages. if that average doesn't hold up, you will see a cascade down like you have never seen before in your life and will never see one this bad again as long as you live. but you guys still think you can pile into some safe dividend-producing ETF and not lose all your money in it.

there is no such thing as "safe" in any market that trades back and forth. but of course, you would rather try to make fun of me for presenting very low and unimaginable numbers in your minds. and the great line you are going to say when this eventually happens is that it went this low because they raised interest rates and i made a lucky call.
How do you define “safe”?

If you want something to buy today and sell tomorrow then yea things can go sideways right now.

If you want something to buy now, get paid an actual portion of real company profits and can hold as long as you like then there is “safe” stuff to buy right now.

Weren’t you the one that was jamming me up about how McDonald’s was going to utterly collapse a few months ago? And I told you it would outperform the market in a downturn? McDonald’s is actually UP 3% in the last six months while the S&P is down over 15%. And oh yeah, they’ll pay me MORE money to own it this year than they did last year, just like they have 49 years in a row.

Most people’s biggest problem in the stock market is they are buying junk companies. Junk that makes no actual profit, has no track record and returns no money to shareholders. Those types of traders will lose their ass right now, and I’ll laugh at them while they do.
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