RAN sire line

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Essential Quality is a Bold Ruler sire line. There is no Raise A Native on the top line. He does have Raise A Native dam sire but that's not what's being discussed here. Bold Ruler might be the next best line to Raise A Native. A few Derby winning examples include Secretariat and Seattle Slew back in the day and most recently California Chrome.

Essential Quality does have the female family 1-x (La Troienne) which is the most successful in Derby. Hard to leave this one off the top of tickets.

EQ Bold Ruler would be Top Line 7th gen , correct ?



Still learning ......... I have an interest to learn ....



Thank u

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

EQ Bold Ruler would be Top Line 7th gen , correct ?

Correct.

You will also occasionally see references to inbreeding in the pedigree. I don't pay a ton of attention to it but did notice EQ is 5x5 (fifth gen back on sire side and fifth gen back on dam side) to In Reality. I always liked seeing that one. He traces directly to Man o' War and those are scarce. The Blood-Horse crew named Man o' War Horse of the Century.

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Correct.

You will also occasionally see references to inbreeding in the pedigree. I don't pay a ton of attention to it but did notice EQ is 5x5 (fifth gen back on sire side and fifth gen back on dam side) to In Reality. I always liked seeing that one. He traces directly to Man o' War and those are scarce. The Blood-Horse crew named Man o' War Horse of the Century.

Really cool stuff F2 .....appreciate the help and insight to making me hopefully a better capper .... everyone's goal ...



Question



In Reality ........... do you seeing him in which Generation ...any preference .



Hope that does not come across as a dumb question ....lol

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

Question

In Reality ........... do you seeing him in which Generation ...any preference .

Hope that does not come across as a dumb question ....lol

In theory, the genetics should be more potent the fewer generations away from the source. I put a little more emphasis if that comes through the tail female line (the bottom pf pedigree chart). In the case of EQ, the tail female line does trace back to In Reality... and also the 1-x La Troienne family that has pumped out five or six Derby winners since the mid 80s. I'll include on all wagers. The horse is a mark of consistency. Just a matter of if it's enough.

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

In theory, the genetics should be more potent the fewer generations away from the source. I put a little more emphasis if that comes through the tail female line (the bottom pf pedigree chart). In the case of EQ, the tail female line does trace back to In Reality... and also the 1-x La Troienne family that has pumped out five or six Derby winners since the mid 80s. I'll include on all wagers. The horse is a mark of consistency. Just a matter of if it's enough.

Looking at Triads of previous Derby Winners since 1980 .... None had middle number below 9 .......... EQ has a 7 .... ? ........... Interesting ..... the middle number satnds for Classic Type Runners .... whatever that means ...? I imagine it means races over 1 Mile ?



Some people will bash this kind of stat .........but at times ....numbers hold up

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

Looking at Triads of previous Derby Winners

Where did you find the info? I assume you're talking about the modern conduit mare profile.

I have not given dosage stuff much energy the past few years. I'll still think the Roman stuff is somewhat relevant separating sprinters from horses that can pull 9 or 10F. Essential Quality with Dosage Profile: 5 12 14 1 0 DI 3.00 CD 0.66 gives me zero concerns on the top side. It's a pretty beefy profile these days and fits the historic average of about 30 total points.

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Where did you find the info? I assume you're talking about the modern conduit mare profile.

I have not given dosage stuff much energy the past few years. I'll still think the Roman stuff is somewhat relevant separating sprinters from horses that can pull 9 or 10F. Essential Quality with Dosage Profile: 5 12 14 1 0 DI 3.00 CD 0.66 gives me zero concerns on the top side. It's a pretty beefy profile these days and fits the historic average of about 30 total points.

I have all the Triads of Derby Winners from 1980 to today ....



Now I'm working a all place horses with Triads ...



Who knows if that angle will hold up this year ?



DI of 3.00 won last 3 Derbies using pedigree querry , which I hear is not good with their dosages ....

[The Biscuit]

Did all the 2nd places horses Triads from 1980 to today



and



No Horse finished 1st or 2nd Place with Middle Number Triad in the CMP below



8 ..........



Only 2 Horses out of possible 82 ..... 1st and 2nd pl finishes since 1980



with Triad middle number below 10 ....



One Horse Won with Middle Number in Triad # 9



One Horse Placed with Middle Number in Triad # 8





Essential Quality has Middle Number of 7 .......... you make the call



just something I noticed ....... Tail or Fade ...... no matter to me

[Bennie]

Bisquit - Are the triads available somewhere or is it something you have to subscribe to at pedigree query?

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Bisquit - Are the triads available somewhere or is it something you have to subscribe to at pedigree query?

$10 for the month ... https://www.pedigreequery.com

[Longshot]

Conduit Mare for all Derby's since 2000 No horse has won with Speed = to
or greater than Stamina and only 8 horses (**) have hit the board in 20 year

2020
Authentic 3-7-9-7-4 10 11 1.09 20-23-19
Tiz the Law 7-6-3-7-4 13 11 1.28 16-16-14 **
Mr Big News 2-10-3-11-6 12 17 0.65 15-24-20
Honor A P 8-1-7-2-10 9 12 0.83 16-10-19
2019
Maximum Security 9-3-3-6-10 12 16 0.83 15-12-19 DQ
Country House 10-4-2-6-8 10 19 0.53 12-18-21
Code of Honor 2-10-2-13-5 12 18 0.64 14-25-20
Tacitus 7-6-3-7-6 13 13 1.05 16-16-16 **
Improbable 6-6-4-7-7 12 14 0.88 16-17-18
2018
Justify 9-4-4-7-8 13 15 0.96 17-15-19
Good Magic 4-7-2-10-8 11 18 0.61 13-19-20
Audible 7-7-8-8-3 14 11 1.31 22-23-19 **
Instilled Regard 6-4-7-6-8 10 14 0.79 17-17-21
2017
Always Dreaming 3-8-3-7-6 11 13 0.77 14-18-16
Lookin At Lee 6-6-4-8-7- 12 15 0.85 16-18-19
Battle of Midway 8-2-2-11-5 10 16 0.87 12-15-18
2016
Nyquist 7-1-7-7-6 8 13 0.85 15-15-20
Exaggerator 5-4-2-9-8 9 17 0.59 11-15-19
Gunn Runner 1-5-5-8-7 6 15 0.44 11-18-20
2015
American Pharoah 7-4-4-9-4 11 13 1.05 15-17-17
Firing Line 3-5-5-11-4 8 15 0.67 13-21-20
Dortmund 8-2-2-9-5 14 13 1.04 19-22-18 **
2014
California Chrome 11-4-3-4-12 14 16 0.94 18-11-19
Commanding Curve 6-3-5-6-10 9 16 0.65 14-14-21
Danza 8-2-2-9-5 10 14 0.95 12-13-16
2013
Orb 7-2-2-5-10 9 15 0.67 11-9-17
Golden Soul 6-6-0-6-10 12 15 0.65 14-14-21
Revolutionary 8-2-3-5-10 10 15 0.75 13-10-18
2012
I'll Have Another 6-5-1-10-8 11 18 0.67 12-16-19
Bodemeister 4-5-2-8-7 9 15 0.63 11-15-17
Dullahan 4-7-2-10-6 11 16 0.71 13-19-18
2011
Animal Kingdom 3-4-5-11-6 7 17 0.54 12-20-22
Nehro 10-2-4-5-10 12 15 0.91 16-11-19
MuchoMachoMan 5-4-10-10-3 9 13 0.92 19-14-23
2010
Super Saver 8-4-3-4-10 12 14 0.85 15-11-17
Ice Box 8-4-3-4-12 12 16 0.74 15-11-19
Paddy O'Prado 6-4-4-4-6 10 10 1.01 14-12-14 **
2009
Mine That Bird 4-7-4-10-6 11 16 0.73 15-21-20
Pionnerof the Nile 6-4-1-8-6 12 16 0.81 11-13-15
Musket Man 10-4-4-7-5 14 12 1.33 18-15-16 **
2008
Big Brown 5-6-5-10-5 11 15 0.84 16-21-20
Eight Belles 6-5-3-6-10 11 16 0.69 14-14-19
Denis of Cork 4-7-6-9-5 11 14 0.84 17-22-20
2007
Street Sense 3-7-1-13-5 10 18 0.58 11-21-19
Hard Spun 3-7-5-11-5 10 16 0.69 15-23-21
Curlin 6-3-2-9-8 9 17 0.63 11-14-19
2006
Barbaro 4-4-5-8-6 8 14 0.68 13-17-19
Bluegrass Cat 6-6-3-6-8 12 14 0.84 15-15-17
Steppenwolfer 7-2-2-8-8- 9 16 0.69 11-12-18
2005
Giacomo 7-3-7-10-4 10 14 0.96 17-20-21
Closing Argument 9-1-7-6-7 10 13 0.96 17-14-20
Afleet Alex 8-4-2-9-6 12 15 0.96 14-15-17
2004
Smarty Jones 11-2-3-5-11 13 16 0.91 16-10-19
Lion Heart 7-7-4-7-7 14 14 1.01 18-18-18 **
Imperialism 4-5-4-14-3 9 17 0.71 13-23-21
2003
Funny Cide 5-5-1-11-6 10 17 0.67 11-17-18
Empire Maker 9-6-1-9-6 11 15 0.77 12-16-16
Peace Rules4-9-3-11-2 13 13 1.11 16-23-16 **
2002
War Emblem 10-1-6-7-6 11 13 1.08 17-14-19
2001
Monarchos 4-3-6-7-5 7 12 0.74 13-16-18
2000
Fusaichi Pegasus 4-6-5-10-6 10 16 0.71 15-21-21

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Longshot

Conduit Mare for all Derby's since 2000 No horse has won with Speed = to
or greater than Stamina and only 8 horses (**) have hit the board in 20 year

2020
Authentic 3-7-9-7-4 10 11 1.09 20-23-19
Tiz the Law 7-6-3-7-4 13 11 1.28 16-16-14 **
Mr Big News 2-10-3-11-6 12 17 0.65 15-24-20
Honor A P 8-1-7-2-10 9 12 0.83 16-10-19
2019
Maximum Security 9-3-3-6-10 12 16 0.83 15-12-19 DQ
Country House 10-4-2-6-8 10 19 0.53 12-18-21
Code of Honor 2-10-2-13-5 12 18 0.64 14-25-20
Tacitus 7-6-3-7-6 13 13 1.05 16-16-16 **
Improbable 6-6-4-7-7 12 14 0.88 16-17-18
2018
Justify 9-4-4-7-8 13 15 0.96 17-15-19
Good Magic 4-7-2-10-8 11 18 0.61 13-19-20
Audible 7-7-8-8-3 14 11 1.31 22-23-19 **
Instilled Regard 6-4-7-6-8 10 14 0.79 17-17-21
2017
Always Dreaming 3-8-3-7-6 11 13 0.77 14-18-16
Lookin At Lee 6-6-4-8-7- 12 15 0.85 16-18-19
Battle of Midway 8-2-2-11-5 10 16 0.87 12-15-18
2016
Nyquist 7-1-7-7-6 8 13 0.85 15-15-20
Exaggerator 5-4-2-9-8 9 17 0.59 11-15-19
Gunn Runner 1-5-5-8-7 6 15 0.44 11-18-20
2015
American Pharoah 7-4-4-9-4 11 13 1.05 15-17-17
Firing Line 3-5-5-11-4 8 15 0.67 13-21-20
Dortmund 8-2-2-9-5 14 13 1.04 19-22-18 **
2014
California Chrome 11-4-3-4-12 14 16 0.94 18-11-19
Commanding Curve 6-3-5-6-10 9 16 0.65 14-14-21
Danza 8-2-2-9-5 10 14 0.95 12-13-16
2013
Orb 7-2-2-5-10 9 15 0.67 11-9-17
Golden Soul 6-6-0-6-10 12 15 0.65 14-14-21
Revolutionary 8-2-3-5-10 10 15 0.75 13-10-18
2012
I'll Have Another 6-5-1-10-8 11 18 0.67 12-16-19
Bodemeister 4-5-2-8-7 9 15 0.63 11-15-17
Dullahan 4-7-2-10-6 11 16 0.71 13-19-18
2011
Animal Kingdom 3-4-5-11-6 7 17 0.54 12-20-22
Nehro 10-2-4-5-10 12 15 0.91 16-11-19
MuchoMachoMan 5-4-10-10-3 9 13 0.92 19-14-23
2010
Super Saver 8-4-3-4-10 12 14 0.85 15-11-17
Ice Box 8-4-3-4-12 12 16 0.74 15-11-19
Paddy O'Prado 6-4-4-4-6 10 10 1.01 14-12-14 **
2009
Mine That Bird 4-7-4-10-6 11 16 0.73 15-21-20
Pionnerof the Nile 6-4-1-8-6 12 16 0.81 11-13-15
Musket Man 10-4-4-7-5 14 12 1.33 18-15-16 **
2008
Big Brown 5-6-5-10-5 11 15 0.84 16-21-20
Eight Belles 6-5-3-6-10 11 16 0.69 14-14-19
Denis of Cork 4-7-6-9-5 11 14 0.84 17-22-20
2007
Street Sense 3-7-1-13-5 10 18 0.58 11-21-19
Hard Spun 3-7-5-11-5 10 16 0.69 15-23-21
Curlin 6-3-2-9-8 9 17 0.63 11-14-19
2006
Barbaro 4-4-5-8-6 8 14 0.68 13-17-19
Bluegrass Cat 6-6-3-6-8 12 14 0.84 15-15-17
Steppenwolfer 7-2-2-8-8- 9 16 0.69 11-12-18
2005
Giacomo 7-3-7-10-4 10 14 0.96 17-20-21
Closing Argument 9-1-7-6-7 10 13 0.96 17-14-20
Afleet Alex 8-4-2-9-6 12 15 0.96 14-15-17
2004
Smarty Jones 11-2-3-5-11 13 16 0.91 16-10-19
Lion Heart 7-7-4-7-7 14 14 1.01 18-18-18 **
Imperialism 4-5-4-14-3 9 17 0.71 13-23-21
2003
Funny Cide 5-5-1-11-6 10 17 0.67 11-17-18
Empire Maker 9-6-1-9-6 11 15 0.77 12-16-16
Peace Rules4-9-3-11-2 13 13 1.11 16-23-16 **
2002
War Emblem 10-1-6-7-6 11 13 1.08 17-14-19
2001
Monarchos 4-3-6-7-5 7 12 0.74 13-16-18
2000
Fusaichi Pegasus 4-6-5-10-6 10 16 0.71 15-21-21

Since 1980 4 Horses out 41 have Won Derby with More Speed than Stamina in the Conduit Mare Profile
Authentic / 2020 Conduit Mare Profile = 4-7-9-7-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.09 Triads = 20-23-19
Charismatic / 1999 Conduit Mare Profile = 7-7-3-5-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-15-15
Ferdinand / 1986 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.13 Triads = 18-14-17
Spend A Buck / 1985 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-5-6-4-9 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 20-15-19

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

Since 1980 4 Horses out 41 have Won Derby with More Speed than Stamina in the Conduit Mare Profile
Authentic / 2020 Conduit Mare Profile = 4-7-9-7-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.09 Triads = 20-23-19
Charismatic / 1999 Conduit Mare Profile = 7-7-3-5-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-15-15
Ferdinand / 1986 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.13 Triads = 18-14-17
Spend A Buck / 1985 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-5-6-4-9 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 20-15-19

2nd Place Finishers / 4 out 41 had more speed than stamina in cmp



Tiz The Law / 2020 Conduit Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14
Prairie Bayou / 1993 Conduit Mare Profile = 8-5-3-6-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.26 Triads = 16-14-14
Bet Twice / 1987 Conduit Mare Profile = 6-8-3-6-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.10 Triads = 17-17-15
Coax Me Chad / 1984 Conduit Mare Profile = 8-8-2-8-4 Speed = 16 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.44 Triads = 18-18-14

[The Biscuit]

My bold prediction





EQ will not finish in 1st or 2nd Places





Been wrong many times before .... will I be this time ?



Most will say , yes .... all good gents ....that's gambling

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

My bold prediction





EQ will not finish in 1st or 2nd Places





Been wrong many times before .... will I be this time ?



Most will say , yes .... all good gents ....that's gambling

Not unreasonable, I don’t think EQ has really improved since his 2yo campaign. There is a laundry list of great 2yo that fit that mold and are not derby winners. Personally, Brad Cox is the big X factor. He has been clutch in big races recently and is EQ not improved or is Brad just now going to wind him tight for the Derby? If it was a different trainer I might agree with you 100% I’m kinda 50-50.

Speaking of Brad Cox Mandoloun just had a huge workout...I hope he is like 30-1 just so I can throw a couple on him