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Old 03-17-2021, 11:02 PM   #1
taxicab
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Top 5 longshots for the Derby....

Anybody can do a top five Derby list that reads like a chalkboard.......dullsville don't ya know.
How about a top five bomber list that can make some noise the first Saturday in May.

1) Crowded Trade.......Only two races into his career he's already shown tons of ability and has a solid second place effort in the Gotham.
Both his races he's been up against it and responded to adversity nicely.....showing mucho determination along the way.
He's the goods.
2) Spielberg.......Love the fact that he's already had 8 races,he's shown to be a durable type.
His Los Al Futurity score was quality.....beat some nice horses that day.
His runner-up in the Gr. 1 DMR Futurity was good.
I really liked his Southwest over a sloppy mess of a track.
He was very annoyed in the starting gate causing him to break badly,costing him quite a bit early........then he had a crummy first turn and was forced to play catch-up the rest of the race........which he did in style,never giving up in a solid second place finish to the perfect tripped Essential Quality.
I was more impressed with Spielberg than Essential Quality in the Southwest.
3) Risk Taking........This guy was solid in the Withers,looked the goods storming home.......had a classy look to him at the wire.
Thinking extra distance will be right in his wheelhouse.
Chad has a couple players for sure.
4) Run Classic.....Big,good looking Colt looked powerful winning for Calhoun.....he sure doesn't look like his breeding profile.
He came home in 30.3 his final 2.5 furlongs in his last,which plays pretty well at the FG's this meet........expect a good race from him in the Louisiana Derby this Saturday.
5) Hozier......Another sneaky one for Baffert.......I think he's on the uptick.
He was working very well heading into the Rebel and came home nicely to run second........improving is the key word for this well bred colt.
He should continue to move forward and have enough points to find himself in the Derby starting gate.

Last edited by taxicab; 03-17-2021 at 11:11 PM.
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Old 03-18-2021, 07:32 AM   #2
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how come PREVALENCE doesn't make it in your numbers?
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Old 03-18-2021, 09:32 AM   #3
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The Los Alamitos Futurity has not been a productive race. Aside from The Great One winning a maiden special weight in a 4-horse field (two of the also-rans have come back to lose other maiden races), everything that has started has lost in uncompetitive efforts.
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Old 03-18-2021, 09:58 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
how come PREVALENCE doesn't make it in your numbers?
He hasn't come close to running a fast race yet. That usually doesn't play out well when the Derby is in about 6 weeks.
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Old 03-18-2021, 10:25 AM   #5
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He hasn't come close to running a fast race yet. That usually doesn't play out well when the Derby is in about 6 weeks.
i don't think in his 2 races that anyone stepped on the gas pedal yet!
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:25 PM   #6
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i don't think in his 2 races that anyone stepped on the gas pedal yet!
Ran through the wire in his latest; they had him gallop out an extra furlong past the finish (jock even gave him a hard smack to keep him going) obviously with designs on future distance races.
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Old 03-18-2021, 09:10 PM   #7
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how come PREVALENCE doesn't make it in your numbers?
Fair question.
I'm having a hard time figuring out the Florida circuit this year.
I just can't get a read on the quality.
I know I like Greatest Honour,think he's good......but I can't figure out the rest.
Prevalence is starting to grow on me Lambo.
I looked at his mile again.......started to like it more than first glance.
He was coasting along,had the class measure of that field easy......Gaffalione only popped him once with the stick........the rest was Prevalence cruising it up.
With Sadler's Wells on the top line and Awesome Again/Seeking the Gold on the bottom........Prevalence should be just fine going longer.
I expect he'll run very well in his next start.
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Old 03-18-2021, 09:30 PM   #8
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The Los Alamitos Futurity has not been a productive race. Aside from The Great One winning a maiden special weight in a 4-horse field (two of the also-rans have come back to lose other maiden races), everything that has started has lost in uncompetitive efforts.
It was a six horse field.......four of them have stakes wins on their resume.
The two that aren't stakes winners appear to have a nice future:
The Great One & Petruchio look like they can run a bit.
Back to the Stakes winners:
Spielberg
Weston: Gr.2 Best Pal
Red Flag: Gr. 3 Bob Hope
Positivity: Graduation (Ca. Bred).
I'm not saying the Futurity should be mistaken for a BC type race.......but it had some quality to it.
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