Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 12-13-2020, 06:01 PM   #3166
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,412
LA 6

Maybe #1
Pass #3, #5
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2020, 06:27 PM   #3167
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,412
LA 7

Maybe #9
Pass #6, #7
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2020, 06:55 PM   #3168
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,412
LA 8

Pass #1, #7
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2020, 10:09 PM   #3169
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,412
12/13/20

Maybe

GP 8-------#5 18.20, 7.40, 4.80
Haw 6-----#9 22.60, 9.40, 7.80



10 bets (2 hit board) 2W/0P/0S


W =40.80 -20.00 = -25.60
P = 16.80 -20.00 = -3.20
S = 12.60 -20.00 = -7.40
__________________
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2020, 10:13 PM   #3170
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,412
12/13/20


Pass Horses



41 bets (2 hit board) 0W/0P/2S

Haw 7----#2 ------, ------, 9.80
LA 6-----#5 ------, ------, 8.00




W= 00.00 -82.00 = -82.00
P = 00.00 -82.00 = -82.00
S = 17.80 -82.00 = -64.20
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2020, 10:16 PM   #3171
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,412
Overall (111 days)

Maybe


1505 bets (100W/107P/149S)

Win 100/1505 = 6% frequency

Win = -480.40/3010= 16% loss

In the money 356/1505 = 24%



Pass


6049 (99W/158P/298S

Win 99/6049 = 2.0% frequency

Win = Minus -5317.20/ 12098 = 44% loss

In the money 555 /6049 = 9%
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-15-2020, 02:05 PM   #3172
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,412
I have mucked around in the garbage dump of handicapping (the super long shots) long enough. During 111 days of handicapping I separated 7554 horses with a morning line of 15 or more into two groups, those who show some promise (maybe) and those who do not show promise (pass). This should be enough data to satisfy most handicappers, except statisticians.

My original premise was "maybe" horses are superior to "pass" horses and the study supported this contention.

Maybe horses = 1505 picked and 100 won (6.6% hit rate). Loss was $480 for $3010 bet (16.0%). 356 hit the board (23.7% in the money).

Pass horses = 6049 picked and 99 won (1.6% hit rate). Loss was $5317 for $12,098 bet (43.9%). 555 hit board (9.2% in the money).

The maybe horses were only slightly better than the house take while the pass horses were much worse. Maybe horses were no secret to bettors with an average payoff per hit of $25.30, but the pass horses were a mystery, payout per hit of $68.50.

The reason I chose to make these picks public was to keep myself honest. It is so easy to pretend you really would have bet that $50 horse. A public record prevents such nonsense.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-22-2020, 09:24 AM   #3173
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 70,236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
I have mucked around in the garbage dump of handicapping (the super long shots) long enough. During 111 days of handicapping I separated 7554 horses with a morning line of 15 or more into two groups, those who show some promise (maybe) and those who do not show promise (pass). This should be enough data to satisfy most handicappers, except statisticians.

My original premise was "maybe" horses are superior to "pass" horses and the study supported this contention.

Maybe horses = 1505 picked and 100 won (6.6% hit rate). Loss was $480 for $3010 bet (16.0%). 356 hit the board (23.7% in the money).

Pass horses = 6049 picked and 99 won (1.6% hit rate). Loss was $5317 for $12,098 bet (43.9%). 555 hit board (9.2% in the money).

The maybe horses were only slightly better than the house take while the pass horses were much worse. Maybe horses were no secret to bettors with an average payoff per hit of $25.30, but the pass horses were a mystery, payout per hit of $68.50.

The reason I chose to make these picks public was to keep myself honest. It is so easy to pretend you really would have bet that $50 horse. A public record prevents such nonsense.
That last part is so true. Thanks for sharing your work.
__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!
PaceAdvantage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-22-2020, 03:44 PM   #3174
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 103,957
Dittos!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-24-2020, 05:33 PM   #3175
Red Knave
dGnr8
 
Red Knave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Niagara, Ontario
Posts: 2,963
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
Maybe horses = 1505 picked and 100 won (6.6% hit rate). Loss was $480 for $3010 bet (16.0%). 356 hit the board (23.7% in the money).
Pass horses = 6049 picked and 99 won (1.6% hit rate). Loss was $5317 for $12,098 bet (43.9%). 555 hit board (9.2% in the money).
Yeah, I've been following along as well and appreciate your devotion to what, on the surface, appears a thankless project. You've got good info on the truly hopeless horses (and the not-so-hopeless ). Hope you can put it to use.
__________________
.
The great menace to progress is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge - Daniel J. Boorstin

The takers get the honey, the givers sing the blues - Robin Trower, Too Rolling Stoned - 1974
Red Knave is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-03-2021, 11:00 AM   #3176
Partsnut
BetMix User
 
Partsnut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posts: 1,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Knave View Post
Yeah, I've been following along as well and appreciate your devotion to what, on the surface, appears a thankless project. You've got good info on the truly hopeless horses (and the not-so-hopeless ). Hope you can put it to use.
There are some of us that are contest players that use various methods to come up with the elusive "bomb" or big horse.
Here's a mechanical method that I have come across that was put into software that works reasonably well for me.. Here are 4 horses that should be well placed in today's Gulfstream (01-03-21) If any of these horses are bet down below 5-1 odds at post time, pass the race. Normally, you would not get these many plays from an individual track. If I hit at least one of these at 5-1 odds or better, I would be ecstatic.

See attached file.

Attached Images
File Type: jpg GPx 01-03-20 Possibke LS.jpg (200.0 KB, 78 views)
Partsnut is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
preferred pick 5 type
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.