and who says u shouldn't know what the odds will be in advance

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Your projections were pretty mediocre, but what is the point of posting them at all if you're not telling us how you use them? Are these horses you are looking to bet or avoid? Anyone could post random guesses and say "use them however you want".

asked and answered see post #3

especially this part "so what i do is project how i will bet the race according to that once single selection because it will dictate how the board moves for the other
selections according to my simulations"

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think you should resist using the morning line as a comparative tool for your odds analysis. The morning lines on the main contenders are horribly inflated...causing the vast majority of the top contenders to look as if they are getting "overbet". Look at the 2nd at Fairgrounds, as an example. Only an idiot would think that the Kingpin would go off at his 5/2 morning line.

no chance i use the ml as a comparitive tool

i tell u what the public will most likely due before the gate opens
according to my simulatioins and odds

i merely point out this is what the morning line oddsmaker should be doing
but is not

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by Tom

Why bother with the ML when nowadays we can't even count on the ACTUAL odds in the last minutes of betting, or more?

asked and answered see post #3


especially this part
"like i said , the computer generated bots beat me after the gate
sometimes but i don't worry about that because my simulations
are always correct and the bot players can't beat the simulated edge because they
are wrong at least 70 percent of the time anyway !!!


tom u don't need to worry about any of these bot players contrary to what has been written here for the last few years on drop down prices after the gate

u should know ur value way before then and its all gravy

i just get u to peak in to that value

so if i put a horse should be 3-1 then u bet ur ass he should be 3-1

what u have to do is believe that i am right and adjust your figures

accordingly to the other contenders

plain and simple

it will take time but eventually you will understand

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Ding!

nice try asked and answered

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

so if i put a horse should be 3-1 then u bet ur ass he should be 3-1

No doubt.

[mmmjjjj]

so lets have a look at the last 2 days

i will just use my projected odds to give u examples

Parx 4 ------ printer l---------------- 5-2--- ----------- at gate was 7-2--- closes 7-2 ---- was off here at gate really can't figure why here
Parx 6-----feduciary values l-----------4-1---- at gate was 3-1 -- late drop made him 2-1
Parx 7----- verrazano vittori -------- 7-2---- at gate was 7-1 way off here -- usually an indication of a horse not well
Parx 8----- phish fan --- --------------5-1----- at gate was 5-1 - small float to 6-1 close
Parx 9 ---- teak ---------------------- 7-2------- at gate was 7-2-- small movement to 3-1 close

2– always free ——3-1--------------------------- at gate was 5-1 --- closed 7-2 -- this was one was tricky --still don't know why he wasn't hit earlier
4– bills mafia ——-12-1-------------------------at gate was 10-1 -- strong bot movement closed 6-1
5— uncle mann. ——3-1------------------------at gate was 9-2 -- stayed close to that --was off here
7– finishing school —-5-2---------------------at gate was 2-1---- strong bot movement closed 4-5 challlkkkk
could go chalk here----

[mmmjjjj]

7– finishing school —-5-2---------------------at gate was 2-1---- strong bot movement closed 7-5 challlkkkk


sorry mistake corrected

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

No doubt.

o doubt

and the followers who know me will testify until the clouds come home
u wil see some will surface soon

[green80]

Originally Posted by Tom

Why bother with the ML when nowadays we can't even count on the ACTUAL odds in the last minutes of betting, or more?

Or after they cross the wire

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

no chance i use the ml as a comparitive tool

i tell u what the public will most likely due before the gate opens
according to my simulatioins and odds

i merely point out this is what the morning line oddsmaker should be doing
but is not

Do you offer a subscription service whereby you supply these simulations on a wider scale?

[Suff]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

7– finishing school —-5-2---------------------at gate was 2-1---- strong bot

Horse won by a pole. A winner & a $7.60 place horse from a few singles is working man good anyday.

[biggestal99]

Parx is an exchange track. 2 minutes to post. Bring up betfair and you will get the real line on every horse in the race.

Very accurate.

Allan

[traveler]

"because my simulations are always correct"

Must be nice

[Tom]

Originally Posted by green80

Or after they cross the wire

Or Tuesday afternoon!

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by traveler

"because my simulations are always correct"

Must be nice

Trav
I know what it must look like
And what it sounds like
But true nonetheless

Regardless of what the public bets them at!!