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11-06-2016, 09:49 AM
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#1
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,269
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Obviously
In a weekend filled with the drama of the Distaff, Filly & Mare Turf and Classic I didn't want this old boy's win in the Turf Sprint to get buried.
8yr old finally wins a BrCup race in his 5th try....hoo-rah!
After many tries in the Mile it seems like 6.5f on the downhill was just what he needed. Congrats old boy
Better Talk Now, California Flag, Kona Gold are a few others I can think of who waited a long time to get that BrCup victory.
I know Chamberlain Bridge appeared quite a few times, as did Perfect Drift (he never won though)
__________________
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-David Byrne
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11-06-2016, 10:07 AM
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#2
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,086
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Yeah that was a great run and Obviously finally got it done. It was the highlight of my somewhat, dreadful, BC, betting wise.
My angle for that race was local horses. The others are being asked to do a lot running that course for the first time or once a year. Pure Sensation ran ok but its tough to ship there to that freak course. Prat and Obviously cut the corner really well and it made the difference late. He and Om kind of take turns vs. each other.
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11-06-2016, 04:34 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
Yeah that was a great run and Obviously finally got it done. It was the highlight of my somewhat, dreadful, BC, betting wise.
My angle for that race was local horses. The others are being asked to do a lot running that course for the first time or once a year. Pure Sensation ran ok but its tough to ship there to that freak course. Prat and Obviously cut the corner really well and it made the difference late. He and Om kind of take turns vs. each other.
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I'd love to see the math and stats on horses for courses at 6 1/2 down the hill. I can tell you that every year I see course specialists win lots of races over the layout.
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11-06-2016, 05:25 PM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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critical mass / perfect storm
Obviously has been among the leaders in his division going a mile on the turf.
He ran a huge, huge race in the City of Hope Mile Stakes, and that worked into everyone's favor.
He happened to finish a much-the-best third that day, and that contributed to him being entered in the Turf Sprint. It also helped players get a slight betting overlay.
He actually had 2 possible negatives going into the turf sprint
1=he drew an inside post,
2=He was a speed horse cutting back to the downhill sprint.
His rare combination of Early Speed/Quality/Class helped him overcome those two statistical negatives. This also helped his odds a bit.
All these factors pointing in the right direction gave us a horse who was much the best, and was playable.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-06-2016 at 05:28 PM.
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11-06-2016, 06:22 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Obviously was my Best Bet. I could never understand why they didn't try to enter him in the sprint in the first place. His last race, at a mile, before yesterday's was an astonishing effort for an 8 year old horse. He went :21.2 under pressure to the quarter, set an insane pace going 1:07.4, and lost by a length in a 1:31.3 mile. He was only in the sprint because they couldn't draw into the mile.
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11-06-2016, 08:18 PM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Obviously was my Best Bet. I could never understand why they didn't try to enter him in the sprint in the first place. His last race, at a mile, before yesterday's was an astonishing effort for an 8 year old horse. He went :21.2 under pressure to the quarter, set an insane pace going 1:07.4, and lost by a length in a 1:31.3 mile. He was only in the sprint because they couldn't draw into the mile.
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Shows how tough the game can be when OM comes so close to stealing the thunder late. OM is a good horse, possibly even better suited to the course, but one who did significantly less running than OBVIOUSLY (in spite of knocking him out of the exacta that day) in the City of Hope Mile.
I know some people intelligently used Om, and they spread, preferring a bigger price.
I personally had Obviously singled and keyed, and was cheering him to the wire.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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11-06-2016, 08:20 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Obviously was my Best Bet. I could never understand why they didn't try to enter him in the sprint in the first place. His last race, at a mile, before yesterday's was an astonishing effort for an 8 year old horse. He went :21.2 under pressure to the quarter, set an insane pace going 1:07.4, and lost by a length in a 1:31.3 mile. He was only in the sprint because they couldn't draw into the mile.
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Agree. The racing gods did the connections a favor.
Glad Obviously finally got his BC.
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11-07-2016, 11:57 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
Better Talk Now, California Flag, Kona Gold are a few others I can think of who waited a long time to get that BrCup victory.
I know Chamberlain Bridge appeared quite a few times, as did Perfect Drift (he never won though)
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California Flag won as a 5yo in his 2nd BC try.
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