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07-08-2018, 06:13 PM
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#16
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
That hurt, do all the dirty work to win the battle but lost the war.
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Yep, probably best though maybe the Chad horse is right there if she breaks.
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07-08-2018, 06:15 PM
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#17
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Handicapper
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 574
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Winner actually looked pretty good on our stuff, was one of the free races of the day.
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C'mon. Aren't the "power picks" who you think the focus should be on?
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07-08-2018, 06:20 PM
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#18
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyJet
C'mon. Aren't the "power picks" who you think the focus should be on?
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The Power Picks are selected by an algorithm that I didn't create. I do use them as a starting point. For this race, my bets actually focused around the 10. I did ok here, but would have done better if the 10 wins. I'm not going to bother posting screen shots of winning tickets because I'm not prepared to post them for all the losing bets I make each day as well.
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07-08-2018, 06:25 PM
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#19
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Handicapper
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 574
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The Power Picks are selected by an algorithm that I didn't create. I do use them as a starting point. For this race, my bets actually focused around the 10. I did ok here, but would have done better if the 10 wins. I'm not going to bother posting screen shots of winning tickets because I'm not prepared to post them for all the losing bets I make each day as well.
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Does your methodology create an odds line?
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07-08-2018, 06:43 PM
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#20
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyJet
Does your methodology create an odds line?
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I've done that in the past but after doing it so long, I have a pretty good idea in my head of what odds I'll accept so I don't spend a lot of time on it. It is pretty much second nature at this point.
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07-08-2018, 06:57 PM
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#21
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Handicapper
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 574
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I've done that in the past but after doing it so long, I have a pretty good idea in my head of what odds I'll accept so I don't spend a lot of time on it. It is pretty much second nature at this point.
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I was referring to the product you're selling to the public. They might appreciate it. I noticed you have the M/L, from your screenshot, but no fair odds.
What do the "spotlight" numbers represent?
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07-08-2018, 07:18 PM
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#22
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyJet
I was referring to the product you're selling to the public. They might appreciate it. I noticed you have the M/L, from your screenshot, but no fair odds.
What do the "spotlight" numbers represent?
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The product isn't software, it is past performances just like BRIS or DRF or Equibase sells. I think offering odds like you mention is a no win situation personally. With software, maybe that is different. There users can create their own factors and have a say in how the odds are formulated.
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07-08-2018, 07:29 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyJet
I was referring to the product you're selling to the public. They might appreciate it. I noticed you have the M/L, from your screenshot, but no fair odds.
What do the "spotlight" numbers represent?
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It would be pretty easy to build a value odds line using the condensed file that they provide, export that to text and import into excel...a few "If" statements and you could write an odds program.
Obviously a much bigger project but DRF does sell all the timeform data, one could easily build a program based on the data. I know that is not something for the casual player but could prove useful.
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07-09-2018, 12:01 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Usually shy away from closers in sprints but the TFUS did show a lot of early speed horses so should've considered her. I didn't end up betting this race thankfully. Was a really fun one to ponder tho.
Pace figures are pretty good. 
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07-09-2018, 02:33 PM
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#25
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Apprentice
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 17
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Not to be an ass, but I just cant figure out why this horse was 47/1.
There was an overabundance worth of early speed, and she was one of the few who on paper wouldn't be looking for the lead.
Is this just an example of an overreliance on speed figures, and people not handicapping the actual race?
15/1 ML was spot on odds for this horse... 47/1 was crazy for a horse who is consistently in the mix every race.
the 10 ran a hell of a ran also.
I had the best hit of my life on this pick 4:
7- 1,2,4,5,8
8- 1,6
9- 3,4,5,6,10
10- 2,4-8,11,12
Can't help but wonder what could have been if the 28/1 holds on in the opening leg.
And I posted 6 on my twitter account ahead of time (@TBredMonitor) so I'm not past posting or anything.
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07-09-2018, 04:07 PM
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#26
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyJet
C'mon. Aren't the "power picks" who you think the focus should be on?
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When the PP says FAST, the best late is almost an automatic bet.
This was a good example of that.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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