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Old 03-22-2018, 03:29 PM   #166
classhandicapper
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A fair deal is one that both sides voluntarily agree to. End of story.

We do know that tariffs don't work, never have.

We lost a net 200,000 jobs when Bush imposed steel tariffs on China. Insanity is repeating the same action while expecting a different result. How can we expect Trump's tariffs to have a different result than Bush's?

Running a trade deficit by definition means running a capital surplus, which means an increase in money invested in the US instead of overseas.
1. We have a different definition of fair. I once got a 30 ball spot from a pool player I could beat by 50 straight up. He agreed to the game. Even I know the deal wasn't fair.

2. Generally I agree that tariffs are bad UNLESS they lead to better deal soon after. However, there are already tariffs/taxes on some of our goods that help keep the math favoring our partners instead of us. That's part of why we have some of these deficits and that's part of what we need to fix.

3. You are missing why the trade deficit is bad.

If we run a trade deficit, we get goods and services (which depreciate) and they get dollars. The "capital surplus" is then invested (usually by FOREIGNERS) in US assets. It is money invested here, but US citizens often do not own those assets. Foreigners do and they get to decide what to invest in, when, at what price, and at what interest rate. If they don't like the deal, they can dump US assets and crush the economy. They keep getting richer and more powerful and we keep getting poorer than we would have been.

When you and I pay taxes, some of it goes to paying interest. If our friends owed those bonds, the wealth would stay here. If some commie or sheikh owns those bonds, more wealth flows out of the US and then back in to buy more land, bonds, US businesses etc...

Would you rather be the owner of those investments getting richer and more powerful or the purchaser of goods and services that are losing value?

The idea is to have free and fair trade that is relatively balanced so both sides benefit approximately equally. But we don't have that and haven't for a very long time. The theory turned out to be wrong because conditions were so unequal. That's why we are now a debtor country, why foreigners sometimes saber rattle about selling our bonds, and partially why standards of living are so flat in the US for so many years for so many people.

I used to be 100% hard core free trader. I still believe that 100 years from now free trade will turn out to have been right. But the trip over the last 30 years has been a disaster and there's more to come. Sometimes you have to balance the 150 year outlook with what is happening to people now.
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Old 03-22-2018, 03:54 PM   #167
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We have a different definition of fair .
I showed you mine, now you show me yours.

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The idea is to have free and fair trade that is relatively balanced so both sides benefit approximately equally.
By definition, fair trade as determined by the government is the opposite of free trade. Why does it have to be balanced? There is a liquor store near me with which I have a totally unbalanced trade situation. I buy stuff from them, they buy nothing from me. I am happy with that, and they appear to be also.

How many states have an unbalanced trade situation with California, buying more produce, high tech services, etc., than they sell to California. Why is that not a problem for those states?

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The "capital surplus" is then invested (usually by FOREIGNERS) in US assets. It is money invested here, but US citizens often do not own those assets. Foreigners do and they get to decide what to invest in, when, at what price, and at what interest rate. If they don't like the deal, they can dump US assets and crush the economy.
So if BMW get upset with us, they can dump their US car factories and crush our economy? How would that work?

A lot of "American" assets are not owned by US citizens. How many foreign interests own what percentage of GE or Ford? It doesn't matter. Those foreign owners of US assets care more about their personal investments than their home country politics.
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Old 03-22-2018, 05:13 PM   #168
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I showed you mine, now you show me yours.

By definition, fair trade as determined by the government is the opposite of free trade. Why does it have to be balanced? There is a liquor store near me with which I have a totally unbalanced trade situation. I buy stuff from them, they buy nothing from me. I am happy with that, and they appear to be also.

How many states have an unbalanced trade situation with California, buying more produce, high tech services, etc., than they sell to California. Why is that not a problem for those states?

So if BMW get upset with us, they can dump their US car factories and crush our economy? How would that work?

A lot of "American" assets are not owned by US citizens. How many foreign interests own what percentage of GE or Ford? It doesn't matter. Those foreign owners of US assets care more about their personal investments than their home country politics.
Clocker, I often look for an entree point into the thread. Today we are all over trade, I'll tell you in a general we trusted a cartload of asshole politicians and instead of operating in the best interest of these United States they sold us down the river. China has many company's running at no profit to supply jobs to their mainland, they are commies and can force that. I am in no way saying this is always the case but it is way different there. Here we have a duly elected President who operates hands on in being negotiator in deals, I say do not sell this President short because he loves our country. As a whole this country is not in the mood in trusting another cartload of asshole politicians in trade, just watch John Kasich & Jeff Flake get ZERO traction next run for the Presidency.

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Old 03-22-2018, 06:26 PM   #169
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Today we are all over trade, I'll tell you in a general we trusted a cartload of asshole politicians and instead of operating in the best interest of these United States they sold us down the river.
A good argument for keeping the government out of trade.

To repeat, Bush put tariffs on Chinese steel and we lost 200,000 jobs. Trump is doing the same thing. Why would anyone think the outcome will be different this time?
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Old 03-22-2018, 06:32 PM   #170
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Dow falls over 700 points from fear of trade wars.

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U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday, pressured by worries of a potential trade war and a decline in tech shares. The broader market was also pressured by a decline in bank stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 724.42 points to close at 23,957.89, with Caterpillar, 3M and Boeing as the biggest decliners. The 2.9 percent decline was the worst since Feb. 8.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/22/us-s...he-agenda.html
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Old 03-22-2018, 07:03 PM   #171
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I showed you mine, now you show me yours.
A fair deal is when two equally informed people work out an arrangement that is mutually beneficial.

If one side is smarter, more informed, gets away with cheating, etc.. and the results of the deal give a huge benefit to one side, that could easily be a legal deal, but it's not a fair deal.

Your definition of fair is closer to legal.

My definition of fair is results based.


I'm also guessing you won't mind when foreign holdings of US treasuries get so high that when we eventually have a budget crisis, foreigners will be the ones to tell us which programs to cut and how far to raise taxes?

Personally, I think those kinds of decisions should be in US hands, but they are already shifting.
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Old 03-22-2018, 07:13 PM   #172
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Dow falls over 700 points from fear of trade wars.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/22/us-s...he-agenda.html
Rich people don't like when they can't bend poor people over and rape them anymore.

I lost plenty of money today (fortunately I have a conservative position because stocks are overvalued). I also made plenty of money since the late 80s when I started investing. I know why I made so much on the way up. Part of it was that the US sold out workers so guys like me that didn't lose their jobs could make a lot more money investing and getting very comfortable while millions of other middle class people like me became poor. The net of it all was the rich got richer and a lot of people got poor.
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Old 03-22-2018, 08:47 PM   #173
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A good argument for keeping the government out of trade.

To repeat, Bush put tariffs on Chinese steel and we lost 200,000 jobs. Trump is doing the same thing. Why would anyone think the outcome will be different this time?
Forget Bush, he was way over his head in follow through process. Obviously not a real thinker in letting those around him control a much higher percentage than he should have. President Donald J. Trump intends that the wake behind him is not survivable to those he is deliberate in running over. Consider him very dangerous to the other side and not ours. He is very capable of shattering all maximums that you think that you know something about.
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:33 PM   #174
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the US sold out workers so guys like me that didn't lose their jobs could make a lot more money investing and getting very comfortable while millions of other middle class people like me became poor. The net of it all was the rich got richer and a lot of people got poor.
Another good reason to keep the government out of the private sector, especially foreign trade.
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:29 PM   #175
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Dow falls over 700 points from fear of trade wars.
Yeah, that little thing about raising interest rates yesterday probably had nothing to do with the drop at all...
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Old 03-22-2018, 11:44 PM   #176
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Yeah, that little thing about raising interest rates yesterday probably had nothing to do with the drop at all...
But Trump signing an executive order today imposing $60 billion in tariffs had nothing to do with the drop either?

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President Donald Trump signed an executive memorandum on Thursday that would impose retaliatory tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/22/trum...rty-theft.html
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Old 03-23-2018, 12:02 AM   #177
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But Trump signing an executive order today imposing $60 billion in tariffs had nothing to do with the drop either?
Did not say that at all.
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Old 03-23-2018, 01:59 AM   #178
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How little people listen, the President said this EO is just the start.
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Old 03-23-2018, 02:58 AM   #179
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How little people listen, the President said this EO is just the start.
Well, this time he got it right. It is the start of trade wars that kill American jobs and raise consumer prices.
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Old 03-23-2018, 06:49 AM   #180
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Yeah, that little thing about raising interest rates yesterday probably had nothing to do with the drop at all...
Three or four rate hikes have been baked into the cake for months. Notwithstanding your sarcasm, you are correct in that it had very little effect.
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