A fun race to handicap, filled with drama and consequence.
In this running of the Santa Anita Derby we have the inexperienced, late developing, highly talented Justify (500k, DP = 5-6-8-1-0 DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75) running against the precious Dual Qualifying, Dual G1 winner Bolt d’Oro (630k, DP = 7-11-12-2-0 DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72). Couldn’t be a better horse race; no traffic, no excuses.
Bolt d’Oro is ranked number one the EFH (tied w/Good Magic) and ranked number one on Equineline’s NARC Ratings. He is arguably the best three-year-old in the county having just beaten McKinzie by DQ earning a BRIS Class Rating 121. Owned by Ruis Racing, LLC and trained by Mick Ruis, Hall of Famer Javier Castellano is in the irons. Works a bullet 47 flat and a comfortable 1:01.1, Ruis has him dialed in tight and ready. CD says 7.88 furlongs. His sire, Medaglia d’Oro is listed as a Stamina Influence on the Speed/Stamina Characteristics of Prominent Non Chef-de-Race Sires. Leading Sire Statistics has the AWD of Medaglia d’Oro’s progeny at 8.46 furlongs.
Justify didn’t race as a two-year-old. As a three-year-old, he is undefeated in two starts w/a last race BRIS Class Rating 118. Owned by China Horse Club (same as Audible), trained by Baffert and ridden by “Money” Mike Smith, both Hall of Famers. Blistering Baffert works of 46.2, 59.3 and 1:13.1, Baffert wants vengeance for the San Felipe! CD says 8.03 furlongs. His sire, Scat Daddy is listed as a Stamina Influence on the Speed/Stamina Characteristics of Prominent Non Chef-de-Race Sires. Leading Sire Statistics has the AWD of Scat Daddy’s progeny at 8.13 furlongs.
Wow, what drama! Ruis, Baffert, the works, the San Felipe . . . McKenzie out, the Ruis rabbit?; will the pace favor Instilled Regard? When was the last time you saw a 46.2 work? Javier shifts from Audible to Bolt; same owners. Is it Johnny V/Audible, Javi/Bolt or Money Mike/Justify? Who is gonna ride Noble Indy and what about Magnum Moon? Is there no one else? IS THERE NO ONE ELSE !?
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Of consequence, I consider this an important race as this race may highlight the continuing evolutionary shift from the early developing, Dual Qualifying classic type to the inexperienced, late developing, and highly talented type. “It is also possible that increased fragility in the Thoroughbred diminishes the probability of early developing types surviving the rigors of a two-year-old campaign and a long three-year-old campaign. This could account for their displacement by later-developing runners that have been subjected to less stress.” (Roman, 2016) “The research [Dosage] reflects a remarkable history now threatened to pass. Horses bred for speed and more speed not only do not become classic winners, but they also do not possess sufficient stamina and endurance to be durable. So they race less frequently, suffer greater distress and retire prematurely. “(Quinn, 2012)
This evolutionary shift is nothing new. Generally, that best of three one-mile stamina laden heat horse of the early to mid-19th century was displaced by the Iron Horse type of the late 19th to early 20th century, who in turn were displaced by the speed types of the mid to late 20th century. As the frontier of speed continues to shift into the early 21st century, we are seeing a new type emerge.
We saw this new type emerge last year in the Kentucky and this year in the Rebel, Louisiana and the Florida. The inexperienced, late-developing, highly talented three-year-olds are serving notice and are thumping the proven and ranked two-year-olds running at three. Will we see the same come the Santa Anita? This race in its distinctiveness may highlight an interesting and compelling evolutionary trend.
Enough of the consequential stuff. It’ll be interesting to see how this race is run and the workouts may provide a clue. These trainers have their horses’ wired tight w/sensational workouts. Ruis has the class horse and Baffert knows it. Baffert has to send, Ruis has to match strides or Justify wires em’. Are we gonna see a good ol’ match race like the olden days!?
Bolt d’Oro and Justify hook ala Always Dreaming and Classic Empire in the Preakness; Justify backs out running up the track, never the same. Class and the sire AWD telling the tale. Pedigree and its relationship to performance still matters . . . for now.
Please excuse the long windiness and the consequential stuff.
Lookin forward to a good ol’ match race come the Santa Anita Derby! Should be a fun race to watch.
