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04-14-2018, 03:34 AM
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#721
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Journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
We do all seem to agree that something is wrong, and that something needs to be done.
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Unfortunately, that 'something' would only cause more complaining, mostly by the people demanding something be done.
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04-14-2018, 03:50 AM
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#722
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Journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
Found this interesting:
EVD Race 3:
Start loading into the gate:
#7: 3-2
#8: 1-1
Last horse is loading into the gate:
7: 2-1
8: 3-5
Rider replacement called for and they back out of the gate.
7: 2-1
8: 3-5
10 minutes go by and the odds remain:
7: 2-1
8: 3-5
* If it is computer betting, the odds should be as they are.
#7 wins
Final odds:
7: 9-5
8: 4-5
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I didn't.
That is about as insignificant a change as I could imagine.
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04-14-2018, 09:04 AM
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#723
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog
I didn't.
That is about as insignificant a change as I could imagine.
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Of course it's insignificant. I said as much. But what I found interesting is that all the late money came in on the #8. Then they backed the horses out. No odds move for 10 minutes. Race ends, and the winner, not the #8, goes down in price.
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04-14-2018, 02:53 PM
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#724
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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What type of money does it take at Kee to go from 4/5 to 1/5 during the race?
About 3/4 through the race Bee Jersey drew off and after race flash was 1/5. This horse looked like the horse to beat but 1/5 with other pace in the race, just feels fishy.
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04-25-2018, 09:39 AM
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#725
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math/science # cruncher
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog
Unfortunately, that 'something' would only cause more complaining, mostly by the people demanding something be done.
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Inept track management doesn't care about this or anything else and this is why the game suffers in today's market
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04-25-2018, 12:04 PM
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#726
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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here is a situation I just ran into which is not so infrequent.
race 5 at Epson, the 4/1 exacta paid $31.10, the $1 win bet returned $2.80
at 1 minuet too post the exacta pool was $3,740, the final pool was $11,071
using the 1 min to post exacta pool data I constructed a $1 payout of $4.04 on the winning combination, while the final pool data construct had a $1 payout of only $2.87 (which by the way as you can see, beat the straight pool $1 return.)
here is the 1 min to post construct indicating "your choice" as #4 over all.
the idea is, if your win bet choice is the #4, then you should bet the 4 over all, using the bet sizes indicated.
Code:
"UK Epsom
Race
5
Post
11:25
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$3,704"
YOUR CHOICE OVER pgno bet size
1 13
2 3
3 21
4 0
5 27
6 11
7 20
8 4
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
100
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-26-2018, 02:45 PM
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#727
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math/science # cruncher
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 180
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I enjoy your info, great to see actual data in action
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04-26-2018, 03:31 PM
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#728
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AstrosFan
I enjoy your info, great to see actual data in action
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thanks
I spend too much of my time with this, but I do the same with breathing
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-26-2018, 03:47 PM
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#729
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Golden Gate Fields
Race
2
Post
3:47
MTP
2
$1 Exacta Pool
$19,719"
YOUR CHOICE OVER pgno bet size
1 10
2 6
3 22
4 19
5 17
6 6
7 3
8 17
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
100
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-02-2018, 03:48 PM
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#730
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 48
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If anybody has information on the drop of the #1 in race #5 at Churchill, today, it would be much appreciated. The winner went from 9-5 to 4-5 shortly after the second favorite (the #8) broke bad and eased. I believe the #8 went from 2-1 to 3-1. Looking for any verification or any pool information for this race.
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05-02-2018, 04:29 PM
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#731
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Would rather see the pools and the flow to make a accurate judgement, but the double paid 20.80 off an 8.60 winner, so 9/5 was likely too high. more like 1-1
My guess, price adjustment. As usual
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05-02-2018, 04:47 PM
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#732
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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Quote:
Originally Posted by P Matties Jr
If anybody has information on the drop of the #1 in race #5 at Churchill, today, it would be much appreciated. The winner went from 9-5 to 4-5 shortly after the second favorite (the #8) broke bad and eased. I believe the #8 went from 2-1 to 3-1. Looking for any verification or any pool information for this race.
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that horse got the lead and no doubt the people that have access to the bell or went in on the horse. i am not wrong, and it does happen, and it happens more frequently than you think.
you are one of the top handicappers in the world and if i was sitting in your shoes i would never be making a bet into the pari mutuel pools and stick with the contests that you should do very well at without exposure to crooked pools.
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05-02-2018, 05:13 PM
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#733
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
that horse got the lead and no doubt the people that have access to the bell or went in on the horse. i am not wrong, and it does happen, and it happens more frequently than you think.
you are one of the top handicappers in the world and if i was sitting in your shoes i would never be making a bet into the pari mutuel pools and stick with the contests that you should do very well at without exposure to crooked pools.
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Why would payoffs in the pari-mutuel pools not affect his contest prices as well?
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05-02-2018, 05:16 PM
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#734
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,992
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Quote:
Originally Posted by P Matties Jr
If anybody has information on the drop of the #1 in race #5 at Churchill, today, it would be much appreciated. The winner went from 9-5 to 4-5 shortly after the second favorite (the #8) broke bad and eased. I believe the #8 went from 2-1 to 3-1. Looking for any verification or any pool information for this race.
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Don't have the info you are looking for but do note that based off of the daily double probables going into race 5, The 1 should have been about 1.18 to 1 and the 8 should have been about 4.08 to 1. Based off of that the odds changes make sense.
It was brought up by another poster, but the more I look at double probables the more I realize that they are predictive of many of these late odds changes. Bet the winner of the last race at Churchill yesterday at 9-1 late in the betting, when he won, I was pissed he was at 5-1. Then I looked at the double payoffs going into that race and sure enough he was about 6-1. I was less pissed.
The good thing about using double probables going into the race is that it is a closed pool. So as bettors we definitely need to look at those probables and weigh them heavily in assessing what final odds we are going to get (at tracks with rolling doubles obviously). So if as a bettor you were looking for 7/5 or better on the 1,, which seems reasonable when he is 9/5 late in the betting, it was far less reasonable to assume you would get it when you saw he was only 1.18-1 in the double pools. Also maybe the fact that the horse was 9/5 late created too much public money on the horse leading to an excessive late odds crush.
Another advantage of using double probables to gauge your probably payoffs is it gives you a lot of time to prepare your potential bets. When I am waiting for the tote board to stabilize I am usually waiting to very late in the betting process and I am forced to make a lot of bets quickly and usually get shut out on some of them (and of course typically the winning ones).
If we are looking to prove if past posting is going on we need to find odds drops that do not correlate with the closing odds of the double pools that closed about 30 minutes earlier. In other words in the example mentioned, had the 1 been 2-1 and the 8 been 3-1 in the double pool(race 4 to race 5) that line movement would have been highly suspicious. However that was not the case in this situation.
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05-02-2018, 05:44 PM
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#735
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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"If we are looking to prove if past posting is going on we need to find odds drops that do not correlate with the closing odds of the double pools that closed about 30 minutes earlier. In other words in the example mentioned, had the 1 been 2-1 and the 8 been 3-1 in the double pool(race 4 to race 5) that line movement would have been highly suspicious. However that was not the case in this situation."
Good luck finding it. And if you find one there's a good chance its a LOSER
anyway.
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