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07-06-2018, 10:11 PM
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#16
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I wonder what your reasoning is.
And I wish you luck.
And I wonder why the hell the NYRA linemaker made Rugbyman 2/1 and Noble Indy a higher 7/2?? Looks like they were handicapping their opinion instead of the public. -Betting against Noble Indy, perhaps with a horse like Rugbyman was one of the reasons to play the Dwyer. Now you've got social proof working the wrong way against a popular underlay...
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Well, NI did just run a lowly 84 Beyer.......and it took him TWO RACES to do it! 
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07-06-2018, 10:12 PM
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#17
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
Not impressed with this field at all
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They should call it the Consolation Handicap - for those who sucked out in the big races.
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07-06-2018, 10:26 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Houston Tx.
Posts: 3,130
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Velazquez is 2 for 3 on Noble Indy, so I'll take #4.
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07-07-2018, 11:35 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye
I'm going to UNLOAD on Mendelssohn
on Saturday.
What do you think?
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I see Mendelssohn is 8-5 in the Morning Line so I took a look at Stakes races at Belmont for 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) on the Dirt going back to May 6th, 2017
They are winning at slightly under 50% (48.7% to be exact) and have been at the head of 19 Exactas
Then I peeled back a layer and looked at them when the Distance was 1 Mile or better and the results are absolutely phenomenal!!!
Morning Lines ending with 5 have won 15 of the last 20 races at 1 Mile or better including 7 in a row in Stakes races on the Dirt at Belmont
If Mendelssohn wins it will make it 8 in a row but I have my doubts
I can't prove this but from what I have seen whenever I see a trend getting close to 10, I start to have doubts (this doesn't apply for losing trends which seem to last forever)
At any rate, good luck may the trend be with you!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 07-07-2018 at 11:36 AM.
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07-07-2018, 12:15 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye
I'm going to UNLOAD on Mendelssohn
on Saturday.
What do you think?
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Great!
Let fly on a trainer who is 2-for-59 lifetime on North American dirt.
(one of the pair having been Mendelssohn's grandsire)
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07-07-2018, 12:53 PM
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#21
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,484
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I wish the OP luck, but I wouldn't bet Mendelssohn in a million years in this race.
Much better value elsewhere.
 Seven Trumpets
and
 Fixedincome Larry
would be where my money would probably go...
Then again, I only look to bet on big price horses these days, and I lose a LOT. But when I win, it makes up for all the losses and then some.
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07-07-2018, 01:29 PM
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#22
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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While it is 1 mile, it is an extended 6F sprint.
I'm with PA here. Stab at the generous odds on the who are legit sprinters at a price. I just have a hard time really liking anything in here. If Mendy is a legit BC Classic horse, he should walk in here.
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07-07-2018, 01:36 PM
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#23
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Mad as hell !
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Bridgeport, CT
Posts: 1,136
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Firenze Fire is just as bad as the rest of them here. Won first time out and first time off layoff. Plus Jason Servis is hotter than a pistol, winning at a 48% clip. Why not ?
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07-07-2018, 02:20 PM
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#24
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuss
Its Rugbyman. He spotted the field 3 lengths in the Easygoer. Ran wide as well.
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#6 Breaking the Rules, who also comes out of the EasyGoer, ran 2nd @9/5 in todays 2nd race at Belmont. The Winner, # 4 Gold For King went 114.8 ( 2 ticks off of Belmonts 6.5Furlong track record.
Breaking the Rules was 6th, beaten 5 lengths in the Easy Goer by Rugbyman who was 2nd, with a bad break and wide trip.
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07-07-2018, 02:42 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nutz and Boltz
Firenze Fire is just as bad as the rest of them here. Won first time out and first time off layoff. Plus Jason Servis is hotter than a pistol, winning at a 48% clip. Why not ?
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6-1 on Firenze Fire is a good value
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07-07-2018, 02:53 PM
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#26
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,269
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Belmont playing fast today, turf and dirt...Noble Indy could be dangerous all the way around
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07-07-2018, 03:37 PM
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#27
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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Fast?
just went 108+ fraction in a turf route.
The hot air and sunshine must have dried the paint quickly. 
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07-07-2018, 03:43 PM
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#28
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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Rugby Man looks good, but I won't touch him under 6-1.
Not a very talented field all in all.
This one paired up and can move ahead, but certainly not worth it at a low price.
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07-07-2018, 04:12 PM
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#29
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,826
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If Fixedincome Larry wins this race I'll eat my laptop. (After backing it up and with some cholula)
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07-07-2018, 04:21 PM
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#30
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Rugby Man looks good, but I won't touch him under 6-1.
Not a very talented field all in all.
This one paired up and can move ahead, but certainly not worth it at a low price.
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He's a trip horse, but it's based on the fault he displayed failing to change leads initially and then lugging in.
Betting a horse because he could/should correct a fault is not my favorite angle. Noble Indy was supposed to be lower than Rugbyman, and he is on the board thus far in the early betting.
 Rugbyman
and
Seven Trumpets
are the two who seem playable to me on top.
 Seahenge can hit the board. Public has dismissed him which usually = value. That last race was a mess.
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