Busting out of a Slump at the windows. What do you do to bust out of it?

[Andy Asaro]

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[Andy Asaro]

I must confess I need a new slumpbuster remedy.

The one that worked for years was new shoes with new socks and baby powder in the shoes. Gotta have happy feet when you gamble.

It hasn't worked lately so I gotta come up with a new one.

Any suggestions?

[jay68802]

My slump buster is to go back and re-read some old standby handicapping books. Then remember the good days, get the mindset back to being excited about going to the track. On the way to the track I keep saying to myself I am going to do good today.

[TiffaniO]

If your bankroll is low don’t bet til it’s replenished. Most people make bad decisions of they’re playing tifht such as tossing a long shot or singling a favorite just hoping to cash... it often backfires and prolongs the slump.

[thaskalos]

Keep a written log of all your bets...and make sure that your play remains disciplined throughout the slump. Whatever "discipline" the player thinks he has will reveal itself when things are going badly. In my own play...I take solace in the fact that no gambler is immune from these downturns of fate...regardless of his skill level. For those who have trouble keeping their heads in times of turmoil...a vacation is suggested as the more inexpensive option. And if it's in the player's nature to press his bets in order to get even, then I wish him a friendly banker...and an understanding wife.

[GMB@BP]

In order to bust out of a slump, something I don't truly believe in anyways, one would need to surmise what is the cause of the slump.

Is it bad handicapping? Is it bad betting? I dont believe in bad luck that is short term.

Typically beyond just statistical regression my biggest errors come from trusting the past performances too much.

Betting races that set up for closer and watching slow to moderate paces develop. Trusting that a dominant pace horse will actually be sent to the lead. I am thinking less and less about race shape dynamics as its just proving to be poor on value. What I see is likely what everyone else sees, so when I am right, what is the point.

The bottom line is if you trust your handicapping then there really is no need for a slump buster. You are your own slump buster.

If you cant handicap in general that is a different discussion.

[groupie doll]

My slump remedy is to take a break... sit back and focus on one of my other hobbies for awhile and then return with a fresh brain.

[JerryBoyle]

I bet exclusively through signals generated via a model, so luckily, the human issues that show themselves in a slump and cause decision making that only makes things worse aren't as much of an issue.

That said, my experience over the past 2 yrs of doing this has been:

1. Improve model and backtest to see that it generates a positive roi historically

2. Go live with model

3. Make pretty good money for a few weeks leading to day dreams of retirement at an early age

4. Model starts to fail, I let it run until only a small amount of the profit earned in step 3 remains

5. Rinse & repeat


I've gone through this process 3 or 4 times now, and step 4 is my slump. Makes me think smart CRW teams have a way to work against me once I start, but different discussion for different day. So far, my only busting out move has been to improve the model, and retest over the period where it failed. However, my current effort is trying to find some signal or value about the model fit or the racing season or types of races that can indicate ahead of time if my model is starting to degrade. Surprisingly (maybe not), the pseduo r2 thrown around here often actually is the best I've got. Currently, I'm in a slump with the model turned off, but it looks like r2 is starting to creep back up, so I will hopefully begin betting again soon...

[FakeNameChanged]

Take a week or two break. Then when your brain and nerves have been recharged, start back slowly. Maybe look at the pp's as if your new and focus on fundamentals, like a baseball player in a slump. Let the game come back to you.

[elhelmete]

I play a modest $$ show parlay.

[v j stauffer]

I never believe in taking a break. The play to break me out of my slump may present itself and be missed while I'm re-grouping.

If you DON'T have some prolonged slumps you're not making the correct plays. This is not a game of cashing tickets, picking winners or even being right. It's about making money and even more importantly continually making the CORRECT bet.

Trust and remember you've been an elite player in the past. That fact is what carries you through the tough times.

Nothing wrong with putting in more hours of prep work. Double and Triple check. That will solidify the decisions you make as being sound.

Don't panic. This is a VERY long gamble. Not days or months but years.

The horses have ZERO idea you're in a slump. You're one race away from it all being turned around and forgotten.

Fire away!

[MONEY]

I don't use software.
Here's what I do.

Pick a post position number.

Use the same number every race.

I compare my horse using my favorite factors to each horse in the field.

If I find only one or two horses that have a chance of beating my horse, it's a bet.

If I think that more than two horses are tougher than mine, I skip the race.

PS
Doing the above will help you see everything that you used to see when you were winning.

[acorn54]

i know i am going through a rough patch when i miss the close calls on a regular basis. of course if i miss the photos going my way i am not picking horses on my poor judgement. games of chance ALWAYS have periods of long unsuccessful bets. if you don't have the stomach for it stay away from the betting windows. also don't forget the game of horseracing has changes at a very rapid rate lately. dominance of a few people winning the races, and much lower mutuel prices than even three years ago. the favorites win at a much higher rate and the virtual absence of casual money in the betting pools these days have made the parimutuel pools far more accurate on predicting the probabilities of the horses in a race. that being said i have found it not worth the time and effort to search for bets on weekdays and just wait for the opportunity that the weekends and holidays race cards bring with their larger race fields.

[Andy Asaro]

So far I'm the only one who tries to use magic to end a slump.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I never believe in taking a break. The play to break me out of my slump may present itself and be missed while I'm re-grouping.

If you DON'T have some prolonged slumps you're not making the correct plays. This is not a game of cashing tickets, picking winners or even being right. It's about making money and even more importantly continually making the CORRECT bet.

Trust and remember you've been an elite player in the past. That fact is what carries you through the tough times.

Nothing wrong with putting in more hours of prep work. Double and Triple check. That will solidify the decisions you make as being sound.

Don't panic. This is a VERY long gamble. Not days or months but years.

The horses have ZERO idea you're in a slump. You're one race away from it all being turned around and forgotten.

Fire away!

I LOVE this post!

Some posters here have wondered in the past why "experience" is considered such an asset in serious gambling...and the answer is stated right here. How is a serious horseplayer supposed to persevere through a "slump", if he doesn't have the confidence which comes only by having successfully overcome such slumps in the past? Of course...such confidence can't be FAKED. We can lie to everybody else...but we can't effectively lie to ourselves.