Looks like Mudder Nature isn't gonna be too kind to us yet again this year, and Derby weekend is gonna be full of rain.
They'll still run the races, and somebody is gonna Win, Place, and Show.
The G2 Alysheba is a nice little race today, and kicks off a solid P5 that ends with the Oaks.
McKinzie: Deserving favorite hasn't done a whole lot wrong in his 9 race career with 5 wins and 8 exacta finishes. Baffert and Mike Smith are gonna be tough in this one, and he'll be many a single on horizontals.
Tom's d'Etat: He was on a roll with 4 straight wins going into his last, and then G1 company hit him square in the mouth. 9th of 12 in the slop, and he faltered when the real racing began. You'd like to give him a second chance, but sloppy tracks don't seem to be his forte.
Prime Attraction: He likes to run a lot of good races, but never seems to run a great race. He'll be in the mix early, and his wet track record isn't bad although he has never won one in the slop. Last win was November of 2017 at Del Mar. It won't be no Del Mar today, but he could get a piece.
Casino Star: Looks to be completely in over his head. 3 of his last 4 have been in the slop however, and he has fared well in the goings. If you are looking to pool scoop the P5, this is likely one you'll need on your ticket. Seems very unlikely.
Bourbon Resolution: 4YO colt is getting better every time out. Maybe he ran a career best last out that will never be seen again, or maybe he is just realizing his potential. He should be a price, and his wet track pedigree is skeptical at best.
Instilled Regard: Last year's Derby Superfecta "juicer" is back at it. However, his last two were on turf, and his last dirt race in the Penn Derby was a disaster. ML seems extremely short amid many others. Sure, it is Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz, but this one seems like a stretch.
Hawaakoom: This 9YO battle tested veteran pops a big one every now and then. He ran a monster in this one just last year at 27/1, and has taken to this track before. Current form definitely suggests his better days are behind him however, and would be a definite surprise if he hits the board today.
Seeking the Soul: His first back from Dubai in which he really ran a clunker in his 8th place finish. He has ran well here before with his 10: 3-2-3 Churchill record, and if he is right again could certainly score. I'm just never a fan of those coming back from Dubai in a big race. And he looks to be a short price in a field with many more options.
Multiplier: I guess the year long turf experiment is over, and he shows up here. Gotta let this guy beat me, even in the exotics.
Silver Dust: Been in the Exacta in his last 6 races. He is also a bit fond of Churchill winning 2 of his 5 on this strip. Seems a bit outclassed, and a bit in over his head, but he seems as ready as ever to take on a group like this.
Copper Bullet: His numbers simply don't match up with the rest of this field, but it is Asmussen. And it is Derby weekend. This guy is also 3 for 3 in the Exacta at Churchill.
SUMMARY: I'm sure
McKinzie is gonna be a single on a crap ton of tickets. I don't think this race is just that simple. I'm gonna take a shot with
Bourbon Resolution, and the
Silver Dust could make a nice Exacta.
